2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2470442 24-Apr-2020 17:48

mattwnz: ... It doesn't make much sense, when workplaces and schools are a risk in themselves of bubbles merging. I do wonder how many cases there have been in level 4, from workplaces, where people have got it from other staff members.
I found these article very good, and I do worry complacency under level 3, which we won't get some evidence of, until close to when level 3 is due to end.
This guy really knows his stuff, and I think if NZ does eliminate it, the country can owe a lot to him for speaking up like he has, and the government listening, because he is probably one of NZ leading experts on this stuff

Covid 19 level 3 complacency could risk another lockdown, epidemiologist says

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12327338

New Zealand needs to urgently look at wearing masks in public - expert

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/04/new-zealand-needs-to-urgently-look-at-wearing-masks-in-public-expert.html

Also how long have we been waiting for advice from WHO as to whether it is recommenced to wear masks in public? What is the delay. I think their use in enclosed spaces is a good idea, because if someone has it and they sneeze, then the mask will help to contain this.

Fully support this and have from the start, regardless of the (convenient) claimed lack of evidence for effectiveness. The experience of several Asian countries clearly suggested that at worst wearing a mask is not worse than not wearing one as WHO, MOH, et al have suggested at times.

And evidence is starting to accumulate in favour of masks, including a link I posted five days ago in the data analysis thread (#2465318). eg.

https://www.jwatch.org/na51322/2020/04/13/surgical-masks-provide-source-control-respiratory-viruses?query=C19

"Masks led to a notable reduction in the number of RT-PCR–positive respiratory droplet and aerosol samples for patients with either coronavirus (in respiratory droplets, from 30% to 0%; aerosols, 40% to 0%) or influenza infection (respiratory droplets, 26% to 4%; aerosols, 35% to 22%); there was no meaningful reduction seen with rhinovirus infections."

That is for coronavirus, the reduction was from 30% down to 0% in respiratory droplets and 40% down to 0% in aerosols. Maybe there is no proof of effectiveness but a precautionary approach would support encouraging there use on public transportation and in enclosed areas, or supermarket queues etc.

Despite the fall in new (local) cases here in in NZ we are still a long way behind the likes of S. Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Taiwan new local cases per capita are still two orders of magnitude lower than NZ local cases. See plot in #2470393

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#2470455 24-Apr-2020 18:12

mattwnz:
It is happening overseas already, as the recommendation went out in other countries like the US.

The point I was making was that making any recommendation for this is incredibly difficult because there are all sorts of consequences to anything you say. And medical staff don't automatically have priority access, see numerous writeups about the wild-west free-for-all overseas in terms of getting access to PPE. We're lucky in that we (apparently) have some local manufacturing capacity that the government can (presumably) lock down for medical use only, but that doesn't seem to be enough:

Millions of disposable masks, gloves and wipes, as well as hundreds of thousands of coveralls and face shields, are being kept under constant armed guard until the shipments depart China. National Express Products (NXP) CEO Joe Taylor, the country's largest supplier of commercial cleaning and hygiene products, says international competition for PPE has resulted in some "questionable tactics" to secure the gear.

Another follow-on issue in the US is that if you tell everyone to wear masks and then restrict available stocks to medical staff only, it's not unlikely you'll get a bunch of nutcases armed with assault rifles turn up at your desk to liberate the PPE from the evil gummint holding onto it for themselves.

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#2470456 24-Apr-2020 18:15

vexxxboy:

frednz:

Doctors in Tokyo say a state of emergency, declared two weeks ago, is not slowing the spread of the virus enough to stop new cases overwhelming the hospital system.

Previously, the virus in Japan was regarded as well under control, so it's of concern that hospitals in Tokyo are now overwhelmed with covid-19 patients.

Just as well the Olympic games were postponed, but they were fairly unwilling to take that step. But now, Japan has joined those nations whose hospitals are overwhelmed. I hope we don't take it too easy here under Level 3, this awful virus seems to have a habit of bouncing back when people thought it was all under control.

With Japan it seems pretty obvious now that they covered up the serious of the virus in the country so the Olympics would go ahead, now they are paying the price for that stupidity.

100%. Right till the last second the PM was saying they will go ahead.

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#2470481 24-Apr-2020 18:23

Looks like they're now making WFH apparel. Beats pyjamas and crocs any day.

tdgeek

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#2470482 24-Apr-2020 18:23

mattwnz:

As above, to wear them in enclosed places when risking coming into contact with other people, which seems to be the advice in other countries at the moment. That also seem to be what some people on here are doing when visiting the super market or chemist. Also from what I have seen reported masks have had an effect in Asian countries such as Taiwan, as part of their approach. But obviously people need to use them properly.

I gave up on masks, when I hear compelling evidence how good they are and how not good they are. Hardly any wear masks in the supermarkets, and supermarkets have never been the source of a case. The danger with masks is that they encourage you to touch your face with your hands. Itchy, needs adjusting. its moved, it apparently causes a great deal of those actions. We aren't a big mask user here, we have literally almost no CT, there are just a handful of unexplained cases

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#2470487 24-Apr-2020 18:32

tdgeek:

I gave up on masks, when I hear compelling evidence how good they are and how not good they are. Hardly any wear masks in the supermarkets, and supermarkets have never been the source of a case. The danger with masks is that they encourage you to touch your face with your hands. Itchy, needs adjusting. its moved, it apparently causes a great deal of those actions. We aren't a big mask user here, we have literally almost no CT, there are just a handful of unexplained cases

I have a small supply of masks my Doctor arranged for me. I would wear them in shops but my wife wont let me near shops right now so I haven't really used them. I have waited in the car when she has gone into super markets and I would say at least half to two thirds of folks waiting would be wearing masks.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2470491 24-Apr-2020 18:37

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

I gave up on masks, when I hear compelling evidence how good they are and how not good they are. Hardly any wear masks in the supermarkets, and supermarkets have never been the source of a case. The danger with masks is that they encourage you to touch your face with your hands. Itchy, needs adjusting. its moved, it apparently causes a great deal of those actions. We aren't a big mask user here, we have literally almost no CT, there are just a handful of unexplained cases

I have a small supply of masks my Doctor arranged for me. I would wear them in shops but my wife wont let me near shops right now so I haven't really used them. I have waited in the car when she has gone into super markets and I would say at least half to two thirds of folks waiting would be wearing masks.

Interesting. Less where Ive shopped. I always wear gloves, we have a supply of the gloves that you get in hair dyes. Use once and throw away. Not many wear them either, although I haven't really looked. Not as obvious as masks. I'll check masks next time too.

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#2470497 24-Apr-2020 18:55

tdgeek: .. I gave up on masks, when I hear compelling evidence how good they are and how not good they are. Hardly any wear masks in the supermarkets, and supermarkets have never been the source of a case. The danger with masks is that they encourage you to touch your face with your hands. Itchy, needs adjusting. its moved, it apparently causes a great deal of those actions. We aren't a big mask user here, we have literally almost no CT, there are just a handful of unexplained cases ...

Re bit in bold: "almost no", "just a handful". As per my earlier post our local cases per capita are around two orders of magnitude higher than in Taiwan (& more than an order of magnitude higher than in HK).

Yes, in the plot (#2470393), local cases here includes all 'non-imported', just as it does for the HK & Taiwan data plotted; ie. their 'local' cases includes people infected directly by someone who brought it back from overseas; eg. husband returned from US(?) and infected wife and young child who never went overseas. The latter two are classed as 'local'. The husband as 'imported' (HK example IIRC).

The path down is also exponential. At current rate (under L4 restrictions) it will take another 3 weeks for us to get down to current Taiwan levels of local cases.

Pasting plot here for easier reference.

Paul1977

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#2470500 24-Apr-2020 18:56

tdgeek:
I gave up on masks, when I hear compelling evidence how good they are and how not good they are. Hardly any wear masks in the supermarkets, and supermarkets have never been the source of a case. The danger with masks is that they encourage you to touch your face with your hands. Itchy, needs adjusting. its moved, it apparently causes a great deal of those actions. We aren't a big mask user here, we have literally almost no CT, there are just a handful of unexplained cases

I actually find wearing a mask to be a good reminder to not touch your face.

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#2470504 24-Apr-2020 19:02

Paul1977: I actually find wearing a mask to be a good reminder to not touch your face.

One of the suggestions for face masks was that while they may or may not help much in the absence of CT, they do provide very good training not to touch your face all the time. In the past I've half-registered a few people I know who seem to touch their faces a lot, but now that it's become a bit of an issue and observations of it are more consciously driven I know of at least two people who would probably have Covid19 in their mouths within a short time of it getting on their hands. So the don't-touch training aspect is of value even with a dishcloth or snotrag "face mask".

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#2470505 24-Apr-2020 19:03

See Masks4All to make you own.

New York Times: A User’s Guide to Face Masks

...N95 respirator masks: ...these masks should be reserved for health care workers only.

...Medical masks: these should be used only by medical workers.

Homemade fabric masks: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends we cover our faces with a scarf or homemade fabric mask when we are in public. The effectiveness of homemade masks varies depending on the fabric used, the style and the fit.

In laboratory tests, some homemade masks did a poor job, while others rivaled the filtration of a medical mask. In another study, 21 people made their own masks out of T-shirts, and researchers compared the homemade masks to medical masks. “Both masks significantly reduced the number of microorganisms expelled by volunteers,” although surgical masks were better, wrote the study authors. In community studies, homemade masks were found to offer some protection during viral outbreaks.

You can sew a mask using a number of mask patterns circulating on the internet or try a no-sew pattern.
...

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#2470507 24-Apr-2020 19:11

@DS248:

As always, thanks for the graphs and detail. I was referring to CT, where we cannot locate the index case, its in the wild somewhere. Our imported and local cases are locked down, and from tests from tracing, and if the person is sick and gets a test. Im not worried about them, as L4 has controlled that. Im worried about CT. Last time I heard a day or so ago, is we have only 3 known cases of CT, where we cannot find the source. We are still getting cases, not many, and we can trace these. If we had CT out there in the wild, we should be getting them every now and then, but we dont seem to be. Maybe one or two a week, each of which has possibly infected others, who are also CT, unknown cause. Doesnt seem to be happening. As if cases got snaffled fairly quickly. I was expecting there to be a few small clusters, no index case, or the index case isn't related to a cluster or travel. A CT sourced small cluster, but we see none of this. It makes me feel there are very few cases out there.

vexxxboy

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#2470510 24-Apr-2020 19:17

i would have thought that if CT was a thing then you would think someone would have got it from going to a supermarket.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2470514 24-Apr-2020 19:30

mattwnz:

Also how long have we been waiting for advice from WHO as to whether it is recommenced to wear masks in public? What is the delay. I think their use in enclosed spaces is a good idea, because if someone has it and they sneeze, then the mask will help to contain this.

You'll find the US/CDC are enforcing wearing them simply to gain control. They've lost it. People aren't listening (as you have pointed out in many videos/articles) and their 'lockdown' is a joke that thus far is as good as a yo-yo. Their rules are a Suggestion. With local governance over-riding.

You either cut off its spread by making people stay home and break the chain (here). Or you cut off it's main method of transfer - the droplets.

Here.. we've not left our houses. We've done a good job for the former. If we were as laxed as the US.. sure. Cover up. But this yet one of many reasons they have since not advised a hard line.

Every couple of media standups the question pops up where he reinforces, you can wear them if you choose. But you HAVE to know how properly. Slapping them on because it's a good idea, isn't. Until it's done right.

Users I see using them sure don't watch this before doing so. https://vimeo.com/396772975 Or are stopped touching their face. Infact most you see in the supermarket and line do it MORE.

Lets pull it down to talk. Lets scratch it. Lets move it. Lets wear latex gloves and forget the sanitise bit and transfer particles more.

Re traffic,

Similarly to others, on my drive to work this afternoon, I was actually in traffic groups had actually had to giveway at roundabouts there was so many others out. Media concur it exploded since Tues up to 20%

There has been at least 12-15 cars each time I've passed the Groynes closed gates where people are using the small bridge to get to the thin walking tracks.

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#2470515 24-Apr-2020 19:33

vexxxboy:
i would have thought that if CT was a thing then you would think someone would have got it from going to a supermarket.

People are pretty good at supermarkets. More likely causes of CT would be people stopping to chat while out for a walk. I swear some people have no idea how far 2m is.

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