2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2470644 25-Apr-2020 07:48

Paul1977:

So, is is just me or is anyone else wishing that life could return to normal (but knowing that's a long way away)?

Its going very well. They now have no detail on Level 2 but I assume many brick and mortar businesses can open. If cases stay low, i.e. 5 and under, that may happen in two weeks from Tuesday. Possibly relatively normal but need to leave contact details at shops?

cshwone

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#2470701 25-Apr-2020 09:04

tdgeek:

Paul1977:

So, is is just me or is anyone else wishing that life could return to normal (but knowing that's a long way away)?

Its going very well. They now have no detail on Level 2 but I assume many brick and mortar businesses can open. If cases stay low, i.e. 5 and under, that may happen in two weeks from Tuesday. Possibly relatively normal but need to leave contact details at shops?

I think you are a bit optimistic. We won't see the flow through effect of level 3 adherence and subsequent case numbers in a bare 2 weeks.

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#2470826 25-Apr-2020 10:25

cshwone:

tdgeek:

Its going very well. They now have no detail on Level 2 but I assume many brick and mortar businesses can open. If cases stay low, i.e. 5 and under, that may happen in two weeks from Tuesday. Possibly relatively normal but need to leave contact details at shops?

I think you are a bit optimistic. We won't see the flow through effect of level 3 adherence and subsequent case numbers in a bare 2 weeks.

I guess it depends on how many infected people are out there right now, and how many are CT's waiting to infect. Over 13000 tests in two days, most of those are results, not quite all. Assume yesterdays tests were 6500 we will get today, cases based on 6500+. If there were a couple of hundred infected and scattered throughout NZ, yes I would agree. I doubt that's the case. They are in L4 and L3 lockdown, not well, staying at home. Will become a new case, and not in the position to infect anyone, on most cases. Like any bell curve it will drag on as the last few appear. Again, it depends how many infected and non symptom carriers are out there, and not practicing 2 metres. I expect L3 adherence to be poor, in L4 it wasn't ideal, but in L4 there were many many cases, in L3 we need to test 6500+ to grab a handful, so the less adherence in L3 isn't probably a real issue, if 99.9% of us are clear. If we get 5 cases a day, from bubbles, they are in effect largely out of circulation anyway. Apart from the short period when they were carriers but felt fine. I was optimistic in L4, but L4 did better than I expected.

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#2470833 25-Apr-2020 10:47

we needed this doctor, amongst a few other people (inc business people who got us more PPE etc) who've help us a lot.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/121229439/the-story-behind-the-doctor-pushing-for-better-covid19-contact-tracing

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#2470840 25-Apr-2020 11:04

after 3-4 months we finally have a global collaboration https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/world-leaders-to-launch-who-covid-19-plan-but-u-s-wont-take-part-idUSKCN2261M7

Rikkitic

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#2470841 25-Apr-2020 11:10

Batman:

after 3-4 months we finally have a global collaboration https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/world-leaders-to-launch-who-covid-19-plan-but-u-s-wont-take-part-idUSKCN2261M7

I would hardly characterise this as a global collaboration since half the globe seems to be putting wounded ego ahead of public health.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2470843 25-Apr-2020 11:16

Rikkitic:

Batman:

after 3-4 months we finally have a global collaboration https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/world-leaders-to-launch-who-covid-19-plan-but-u-s-wont-take-part-idUSKCN2261M7

I would hardly characterise this as a global collaboration since half the globe seems to be putting wounded ego ahead of public health.

Yep. Bit late now, best to live in a country that puts the core issue first. And those that did, are now well placed to get the economy moving. Thanks NZ and W.H.O.

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#2470877 25-Apr-2020 11:56

Watching America in Horror From a Curve-Flattened Australia

There’s an extreme emotional dissonance in feelings of gratitude for Australia’s relative safety, when so many people I know and love are in the United States where things seem out of control.

New York Times By Besha Rodell

...As of this coming week, Georgia — with a death toll of 837 as of Thursday — is relaxing its quarantine measures well ahead of expert-advised timelines, drawing criticism even from President Trump.

Meanwhile, in Australia, our extreme social distancing and lockdown measures appear to be working. This week, Damien Cave reports on Australia and New Zealand’s “rapid suppression of the coronavirus outbreak,” with only a handful of new cases reported each day:

The results are undeniable: Australia and New Zealand have squashed the curve. Australia, a nation of 25 million people that had been on track for 153,000 cases by Easter, has recorded a total of 6,674 infections and 78 deaths. It has a daily growth rate of less than 1 percent, with per capita testing among the highest in the world.

New Zealand’s own daily growth rate, after soaring in March, is also below 1 percent, with 1,456 confirmed cases and 17 deaths. It has just 361 active cases in a country of five million.

This stands in stark contrast to the dark news coming in from the U.S.A, where more than 42,000 people have now died from coronavirus, a figure that will likely be tragically out of date by the time you read this.

There’s an extreme emotional dissonance in feelings of gratitude for Australia’s relative safety, when so many people I know and love are in the U.S. where things seem out of control.
...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/australia/coronavirus-united-states.html

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#2470883 25-Apr-2020 12:04

New York Times: Vanquish the Virus? Australia and New Zealand Aim to Show the Way

The two countries, led by ideological opposites, are converging on an extraordinary goal: eliminating the virus. Their nonpolitical approach is restoring trust in democracy.

Thousands of miles from President Trump’s combative news briefings, a conservative leader in Australia and a progressive prime minister in New Zealand are steadily guiding their countries toward a rapid suppression of the coronavirus outbreak.

Both nations are now reporting just a handful of new infections each day, down from hundreds in March, and they are converging toward an extraordinary goal: completely eliminating the virus from their island nations.

Whether they get to zero or not, what Australia and New Zealand have already accomplished is a remarkable cause for hope. Scott Morrison of Australia, a conservative Christian, and Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s darling of the left, are both succeeding with throwback democracy — in which partisanship recedes, experts lead, and quiet coordination matters more than firing up the base.

“This is certainly distinct from the United States,” said Dr. Peter Collignon, a physician and professor of microbiology at the Australian National University who has worked for the World Health Organization. “Here it’s not a time for politics. This is a time for looking at the data and saying let’s do what makes the most sense.”

The dreamy prospect of near normalcy, with the virus defeated, crowds gathering in pubs and every child back in school, is hard to imagine for much of the United States, where testing shortages and a delayed response by Mr. Trump have led to surges of contagion and death.

And it may end up being a mirage or temporary triumph in Australia and New Zealand. Elimination means reducing infections to zero in a geographic area with continued measures to control any new outbreak, and that may require extended travel bans. Other places that seemed to be keeping the virus at bay, such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore, have seen it rebound, usually with infections imported from overseas.

And yet, if there are any two countries that could pull off a clear if hermetically sealed victory — offering a model of recovery that elevates competence over ego and restores some confidence in democratic government — it may be these two Pacific neighbors with their sparsely populated islands, history of pragmatism and underdogs’ craving for recognition.

...In New Zealand, where the government is more centralized, Ms. Ardern introduced an alert system that led to a total lockdown less than a month after the country’s first case emerged.

...In both countries, the public initially resisted and then complied, in part because the information flowing from officials at every level was largely consistent.

...New Zealand’s own daily growth rate, after soaring in March, is also below 1 percent, with 1,456 confirmed cases and 17 deaths. It has just 361 active cases in a country of five million.

These figures put the two countries closer to Taiwan and South Korea, which have controlled the virus’s spread for now, than to the United States and Europe — even places seen as success stories, like Germany.

It all started with scientists. ... In New Zealand, public health experts pushed for a bold move. Dr. Michael Baker, a physician and professor at the University of Otago in Wellington, became a prominent voice outside the government pushing for elimination of the virus, not just its suppression.

...Nonetheless, if it happens, Dr. Murphy and his counterpart in New Zealand, Dr. Ashley Bloomfield, would be the ones receiving accolades. Like Dr. Anthony Fauci, the face of the American government’s scientific response, they are known for extensive public health pedigrees, calm demeanors and no-nonsense adherence to facts.

Dr. Bloomfield, who, tieless and with rumpled hair, has hosted online question-and-answer sessions almost every day, has become a celebrity of straight-talking reassurance. An artist in Wellington has even started selling towels that show his face surrounded by hearts.

He and others like him at the local level are key factors in a revival of trust in government that has appeared in poll after poll lately, even as the two countries’ economies have cratered and people have been told to severely restrict their lives.

...Ms. Ardern and Mr. Morrison have already discussed reopening travel between the two countries, and some scientists wonder if eliminating the virus with good management might rebuild some faith not just in democracy, but also in the value of expertise.
...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/australia/new-zealand-coronavirus.html

neb

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#2470896 25-Apr-2020 12:25

empacher48: Masks only work when you are appropriately trained and worn correctly. Otherwise they are a waste and taking valuable PPE from those who need it. If 7/9 people seen wearing them can’t get it right. Then what is the point in making it compulsory?

N95s in particular need training and serious self-discipline to fit and use properly. It's quite possible that 9/9 of the people you saw weren't doing it right... I'll be wearing one as a signal to others that I'm being careful, not because I expect it to protect me if I'm exposed to Covid19.

neb

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#2470904 25-Apr-2020 12:30

Batman:
after 3-4 months we finally have a global collaboration https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/world-leaders-to-launch-who-covid-19-plan-but-u-s-wont-take-part-idUSKCN2261M7

U.S. stays away

Well that's a relief, at least then there'll be a chance things will get done properly.

Seriously, it's good that the US is not involved, with the current leadership they'd be a massive liability, not any kind of help. And I'm sure the competent medical people several levels below the Trump Toady Club will still be involved, via back channels.

Sideface

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#2470907 25-Apr-2020 12:38

with apologies to George Seurat

the original painting:

A Sunday Afternoon on the Island of La Grande Jatte, 1884–86, oil on canvas, 207.5 × 308.1 cm, Art Institute of Chicago

(click to view)

Sideface

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#2470917 25-Apr-2020 12:48

There is no live media conference today (25 April 2020).

Today's media update will be provided by a statement, to be sent at 1pm. COVID-19 case and testing data will be updated when it is available. See Current cases for more information.

The 1pm live media conferences will resume on Monday 27 April.

tdgeek

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#2470938 25-Apr-2020 13:22

5 new cases, 1 death. As reported today by MoH instead of a live update

Yabanize

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#2470986 25-Apr-2020 13:27

Health.govt.nz must be getting absolutely hammered still, Loading with a crawl, or not loading at all.

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