2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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BDFL - Memuneh
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#2471566 26-Apr-2020 13:02

Press release:

Today there are nine new cases of COVID-19 to report, made up of four new confirmed cases and five new probable cases.

There were 5,966 tests completed yesterday, with a combined total to date of 120,981.

Of the new cases reported today, four are linked to existing clusters, and five are linked to known confirmed cases.

The Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield says although it’s encouraging to have another day of single digit cases, vigilance remains crucial.

‘As we prepare to move to Alert Level 3 on Tuesday morning, it’s really important not to slacken off the effort.

‘Even though all these new cases are linked to existing community-based cases or clusters, or are a result of overseas travel, nine cases highlights the need for everybody to maintain a high level of vigilance in Level 4 and as we move to Level 3.’

The combined total of confirmed and probable cases in New Zealand is 1,470, with 1,142 reported as recovered – an increase of 24 on yesterday. 78% of all confirmed and probable cases are now recovered.

There are seven people in hospital, unchanged from yesterday. This total includes one person in the ICU in Middlemore.

There are still 16 significant clusters, and again this is no change from yesterday.

GV27

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#2471570 26-Apr-2020 13:11

"Links to known cases" is concerning, on the eve of the eve of the lockdown being relaxed.

There are substantially more cars on the road today already - I can hear road noise again - and people are clearly already thinking we are out of the woods.

PolicyGuy

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#2471573 26-Apr-2020 13:15

Fred99:

Just to say the NZ testing rate per 100,000 population is now quite high, relative to confirmed cases very high, and NZ CFR is measured proportionately much higher than most countries because we are counting all C-19 PCR confirmed positive deaths as C-19 deaths - and I believe also included (one or two?) PCR negatives that were clinically diagnosed.
Compare UK for example, only "hospital" PCR confirmed deaths are included. God knows how many additional deaths there are there in rest homes or at home - they aren't counting and don't seem to want to know.

Statistical research is now being done in the UK - and probably other places - that is looking at "excess deaths", i.e. the number of deaths in a month in 2020 and the corresponding month in 2019 (or the average 2015-2019). This is showing that England & Wales have a much higher excess mortality than the official Covid-19 figures - Scotland & N Ireland apparently less so.

This will become clearer as time goes by, these statistics seem to be a monthly series.

:-(

dejadeadnz

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#2471574 26-Apr-2020 13:18

IMO, they need to detain all confirmed cases in hospitals, as well as people with whom they live. You only need a few of these people to pull a stunt like the Auckland RSA did yesterday for the whole country to be screwed. We've already had one person who was confirmed as having COVID deciding to go out.

The brutal reality is that people can't be trusted. Anyone who's mindful of their own personal wellbeing should also continue to behave like it's level 4.

Technofreak

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#2471577 26-Apr-2020 13:29

GV27:

"Links to known cases" is concerning, on the eve of the eve of the lockdown being relaxed.

There are substantially more cars on the road today already - I can hear road noise again - and people are clearly already thinking we are out of the woods.

The links to known cases indicates to me that our contact tracing maybe isn't up to scratch.

Been more cars on the road for the past few days.

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MikeB4

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#2471578 26-Apr-2020 13:31

Just been out for a walk. Two things concerned me. One house we walk past most days has one car in the driveway today has at least five. Another house we walked past had a group of folks coming out and hoping in a car each carrying a plate or plastic box with food like they were off to visit someone for Sunday lunch.

Technofreak

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#2471581 26-Apr-2020 13:42

dejadeadnz:

IMO, they need to detain all confirmed cases in hospitals, as well as people with whom they live. You only need a few of these people to pull a stunt like the Auckland RSA did yesterday for the whole country to be screwed. We've already had one person who was confirmed as having COVID deciding to go out.

The brutal reality is that people can't be trusted. Anyone who's mindful of their own personal wellbeing should also continue to behave like it's level 4.

I agree there needs to be better monitoring/quarantining. I think the majority who are infected play by the rules. There's always one or two how don't really get how social distancing actually works and do dumb things then you have the likes of the guy in Timaru whom I guess you're talking about. We need to cater for the minority dummies and the don't cares.

I don't agree the "Stunt" as you call it is necessarily any more risky than a lot of other things happening right now. That's assuming it was conducted as has been reported. Was it appropriate in the circumstances? Probably not. Did in create any significant more risk? Probably not.

I went to gathering an ANZAC day. I went to the local supermarket where there was about 60 - 70 other like minded people gathered there all going about their business observing the social distancing rules. Is that really materially different from a risk or danger point of view to a group of like minded people gathering in a park and observing social distancing rules?

Edited to clarify what wasn't materially different.

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Technofreak

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#2471587 26-Apr-2020 13:47

MikeB4: Just been out for a walk. Two things concerned me. One house we walk past most days has one car in the driveway today has at least five. Another house we walked past had a group of folks coming out and hoping in a car each carrying a plate or plastic box with food like they were off to visit someone for Sunday lunch.

We observed similar things around here at various stages of the lock down. I don't know how you stop it without creating a real dob in culture, which is unhealthy to society long term. Perhaps the only way is a sustained advertising campaign making it very clear this sort of activity is totally unacceptable. Something a bit lie the anti smoking campaign, however that probably takes more than 4 weeks to get up and running and to have any effect.

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Rikkitic

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#2471588 26-Apr-2020 13:50

It is different when the weak-minded see it and take it as an excuse to bend the rules even further. It is as much about setting an example as about avoiding direct contamination. There also remains a big element of uncertainty around the circumstances in which the infection can spread, and how contagious it is under different conditions.

Churches in America have ignored the rules by claiming they are serving a higher purpose. This is very similar. It doesn't matter how noble your cause is. The virus doesn't care. Either you respect the rules, or you don't.

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GV27

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#2471594 26-Apr-2020 14:05

The thing I'm most confused about is how places like Cali, NY etc can have had established cases going back to January. Have we just been absurdly lucky to have no background transmission in the months before some of the travel restrictions were in place? We moved after Australia and they seem to have had it for longer than they initially thought.

mattwnz

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#2471602 26-Apr-2020 14:22

GV27:

The thing I'm most confused about is how places like Cali, NY etc can have had established cases going back to January. Have we just been absurdly lucky to have no background transmission in the months before some of the travel restrictions were in place? We moved after Australia and they seem to have had it for longer than they initially thought.

We don't know if we haven't had cases going back that far though. If you don't test for something, and people just think they have the flu, or don't have any symptoms, then it isn't going to be picked up. Especially if we didn't have testing back then anyway, or if in order to get a test, you have to have traveled or linked to a traveler to a certain country, which was one of the early requirements of getting a test. So that was a potential leak right there, as some people who had symptoms early on weren't allowed to get a test done. .

I notice there are quite a lot of new cases today. I notice that the are all linked to existing clusters or can be linked to other confirmed cases. But I don't think it says if any of the other more random tests they have done over the last few days, are some of these detected cases.

I can't understand how we are still getting new cases from coming from confirmed cases, if everyone is following the rules, as we have now had more than 2 full infection cycles. So how can these people be still getting infected from people inside their bubbles? If they are not being infected by people inside their bubbles, why are they being infected? If they are from work places, are these workplaces not following separation rules?. It appears separation distance between people is only required to be 1 metre inside, which seems very close. I understand in the US it is 6 feet or 2 metres. I think part of the problem is a lack of detail as to who and how these people are getting infected. Knowing this information from the Ministry of Health may help others buck their ideas up.

frednz

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#2471619 26-Apr-2020 14:50

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

I've been watching from the above page for the last few days the number of active cases by DHB. It's interesting that Wairarapa and West Coast have had zero active cases for a while and several other regions have had 6 or less.

Of course, there are recovered cases in these regions and I guess it's possible that, particularly when Level 3 takes effect, infected travellers from other regions could infect people in these regions or there could be people living there who are infected and not currently displaying any symptoms.

However, if you live in the Wairarapa or West Coast, where there are currently zero active cases, I guess you could feel quite safe in getting out and about quite a lot more once Level 3 starts? In other words, the chances of you catching the virus in areas where the active cases are at a very low number must be very small?

nzkiwiman

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#2471620 26-Apr-2020 14:52

mattwnz:

I notice there are quite a lot of new cases today. I notice that the are all linked to existing clusters or can be linked to other confirmed cases. But I don't think it says if any of the other more random tests they have done over the last few days, are some of these detected cases.

I can't understand how we are still getting new cases from coming from confirmed cases, if everyone is following the rules, as we have now had more than 2 full infection cycles. So how can these people be still getting infected from people inside their bubbles? If they are not being infected by people inside their bubbles, why are they being infected? If they are from work places, are these workplaces not following separation rules?. It appears separation distance between people is only required to be 1 metre inside, which seems very close. I understand in the US it is 6 feet or 2 metres. I think part of the problem is a lack of detail as to who and how these people are getting infected. Knowing this information from the Ministry of Health may help others buck their ideas up.

I got concerned when I read that we had nine new cases today - and like you have questioned; how does that happen?

I can't find my earlier question that was similar to yours and the answer that came from it - something along the lines of "these people had issues before lockdown, got tested well into lockdown and now should be ok"

More information on each of these new cases is needed from the MOH; having just a number doesn't really help

GV27

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#2471621 26-Apr-2020 15:01

nzkiwiman:

I got concerned when I read that we had nine new cases today - and like you have questioned; how does that happen?

I can't find my earlier question that was similar to yours and the answer that came from it - something along the lines of "these people had issues before lockdown, got tested well into lockdown and now should be ok"

More information on each of these new cases is needed from the MOH; having just a number doesn't really help

So tying cases to clusters makes sense as contact tracing does its thing.

It's the new cases tied to international travel - how recent are we talking, when did these people arrive, have they been quarantined at home or government-mandated hotels etc. If we have groups of people quarantining at home and infecting each other in the same household, then that virus could be bouncing around that group of people for far more than two weeks, possibly even totally undetected if all are asymptomatic.

nzkiwiman

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#2471624 26-Apr-2020 15:09

On the current cases page, one of the last entries is someone who was confirmed on the 25/4 after entering the country from overseas on the 15/3.

As a result, so many questions!

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