2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2471632 26-Apr-2020 15:26

nzkiwiman:

On the current cases page, one of the last entries is someone who was confirmed on the 25/4 after entering the country from overseas on the 15/3.

As a result, so many questions!

if the person had no or very mild symptoms then he/she could not bother with a test for a week or so but still be isolating as part of the cluster and only now is tested because testing has increased and they are testing everyone that even has a slight sniffle. The main thing is there is still no sign of CT and only 7 in hospital so no chance of Hospitals being over run.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2471635 26-Apr-2020 15:48

frednz:
However, if you live in the Wairarapa or West Coast, where there are currently zero active cases, I guess you could feel quite safe in getting out and about quite a lot more once Level 3 starts? In other words, the chances of you catching the virus in areas where the active cases are at a very low number must be very small?

Those are small DHBs, with smaller populations.

Whanganui DHB had zero active for a few days, then found 2 new cases.

So I suspect that the actual risk probably isn't very different from the bigger DHBs. Especially if you consider that all the known cases are isolated. The idea of lockdown is not to protect you from the known cases; it's to protect you from the unknown cases.

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#2471639 26-Apr-2020 15:53

DS248:

For what it is worth

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/25/us/who-immunity-antibodies-covid-19/index.html

""There is no evidence yet that people who have had Covid-19 will not get a second infection," WHO said in a scientific brief published Friday."

You should follow the updates to this whole issue - many media wrote stories based on a WHO tweet. Thiis Tweet has been subsequently pulled because media interpreted the Tweet and data provided very differently to what was actually intended (and what was published if they'd read the full data).

The official WHO stance is -

"We expect that most people who are infected with #COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection. What we don't yet know is the level of protection or how long it will last. We are working with scientists around the world to better understand the body's response to #COVID19 infection. So far, no studies have answered these important questions."

Most media who wrote stories have not retracted or updated them.

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=20

GV27

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#2471641 26-Apr-2020 15:59

vexxxboy:

if the person had no or very mild symptoms then he/she could not bother with a test for a week or so but still be isolating as part of the cluster and only now is tested because testing has increased and they are testing everyone that even has a slight sniffle. The main thing is there is still no sign of CT and only 7 in hospital so no chance of Hospitals being over run.

Not at the moment, but it will only take one or two of these people who have supposedly sat things out with the rest of us to get back into the community at L3 and all bets are off. Contact tracing is gold standard at three days - I'd imagine you could get around quite a bit under L3 and do far more damage without knowing it than under L4.

Technofreak

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#2471650 26-Apr-2020 16:19

sbiddle:

DS248:

For what it is worth

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/25/us/who-immunity-antibodies-covid-19/index.html

""There is no evidence yet that people who have had Covid-19 will not get a second infection," WHO said in a scientific brief published Friday."

You should follow the updates to this whole issue - many media wrote stories based on a WHO tweet. Thiis Tweet has been subsequently pulled because media interpreted the Tweet and data provided very differently to what was actually intended (and what was published if they'd read the full data).

The official WHO stance is -

"We expect that most people who are infected with #COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection. What we don't yet know is the level of protection or how long it will last. We are working with scientists around the world to better understand the body's response to #COVID19 infection. So far, no studies have answered these important questions."

Most media who wrote stories have not retracted or updated them.

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=20

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=20

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=20

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=20

Yet, just another example of why it's not good to place too much stock on what is published on the internet. Unfortunately too many dots are skipped when conclusions are being drawn about what is said. Also I dismay at the poor comprehension levels being displayed by some journalists.

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tdgeek

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#2471651 26-Apr-2020 16:20

mattwnz:

I notice there are quite a lot of new cases today. I notice that the are all linked to existing clusters or can be linked to other confirmed cases. But I don't think it says if any of the other more random tests they have done over the last few days, are some of these detected cases.

I can't understand how we are still getting new cases from coming from confirmed cases, if everyone is following the rules, as we have now had more than 2 full infection cycles. So how can these people be still getting infected from people inside their bubbles? If they are not being infected by people inside their bubbles, why are they being infected? If they are from work places, are these workplaces not following separation rules?. It appears separation distance between people is only required to be 1 metre inside, which seems very close. I understand in the US it is 6 feet or 2 metres. I think part of the problem is a lack of detail as to who and how these people are getting infected. Knowing this information from the Ministry of Health may help others buck their ideas up.

Not sure if 9 is a lot of cases. When numbers get so low, 3 is low as is 9. It could easily have been 9, then 6, then 3, and we would say that looks great. Margin for error is very wide now. Same if we were getting 89 a day. Might be 82, might be 96.

When he says confirmed cases, does that mean inside their bubbles? It might mean I got it from you, as I know you, but we are not in the same bubble. As cases are now low, Id like to see how each of the 9 got it. Same bubble, different bubble, and if so, how? Say I got it from the supermarket, but I know you, and you already have had it. You are a known case, that I have associated with, but they can't forensically link my case to you, but they decide I got it from a contact that I know, you. But in this example, I didn't.

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#2471672 26-Apr-2020 17:13

MikeB4: Just been out for a walk. Two things concerned me. One house we walk past most days has one car in the driveway today has at least five. Another house we walked past had a group of folks coming out and hoping in a car each carrying a plate or plastic box with food like they were off to visit someone for Sunday lunch.

We saw a bunch of people sitting in their driveway having drinks. Hard to tell from the number of cars whether it was neighbours who had popped over but given the number of cars it looked like it was visitors who had driven in from elsewhere.

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#2471674 26-Apr-2020 17:21

neb:
MikeB4: Just been out for a walk. Two things concerned me. One house we walk past most days has one car in the driveway today has at least five. Another house we walked past had a group of folks coming out and hoping in a car each carrying a plate or plastic box with food like they were off to visit someone for Sunday lunch.
We saw a bunch of people sitting in their driveway having drinks. Hard to tell from the number of cars whether it was neighbours who had popped over but given the number of cars it looked like it was visitors who had driven in from elsewhere.

Outside my house now I can see a bunch of people having drinks on chairs in the roundabout in the middle of the street as an organised covid 19 street meetup. Each bubble isolated by two metres. I previously posted about it on here, and I didn't think it was a good idea and didn't go.

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#2471675 26-Apr-2020 17:23

tdgeek:
Not sure if 9 is a lot of cases. When numbers get so low, 3 is low as is 9. It could easily have been 9, then 6, then 3, and we would say that looks great. Margin for error is very wide now. Same if we were getting 89 a day. Might be 82, might be 96.

That's the thing with very, very low numbers, eventually you get into the 3-degree background radiation level where you're seeing false positives, errors, slip-ups in reporting or recording, or just random stuff that doesn't make any sense and will never be explained no matter how hard you try. You're at the system's noise floor, so you're going to see odd random results from that.

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#2471676 26-Apr-2020 17:25

mattwnz:
Outside my house now I can see a bunch of people having drinks on chairs in the roundabout in the middle of the street as an organised covid 19 street meetup. Each bubble isolated by two metres. I previously posted about it on here, and I didn't think it was a good idea and didn't go.

Should have been more clear in my post, this was five adults with kids playing nearby sitting in the same driveway, not individual driveways, around a small table. No social distancing.

mattwnz

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#2471678 26-Apr-2020 17:27

tdgeek:

Not sure if 9 is a lot of cases. When numbers get so low, 3 is low as is 9. It could easily have been 9, then 6, then 3, and we would say that looks great. Margin for error is very wide now. Same if we were getting 89 a day. Might be 82, might be 96.

When he says confirmed cases, does that mean inside their bubbles? It might mean I got it from you, as I know you, but we are not in the same bubble. As cases are now low, Id like to see how each of the 9 got it. Same bubble, different bubble, and if so, how? Say I got it from the supermarket, but I know you, and you already have had it. You are a known case, that I have associated with, but they can't forensically link my case to you, but they decide I got it from a contact that I know, you. But in this example, I didn't.

IMO it is quite a lot considering, none of these are imported cases from returning people, unlike most previous days appear to have been. So they all appear to have been transmitted from existing cases already in NZ. Granted that the sample size in NZ is quite small, so we are more likely to have larger swings of numbers. But even the DG did say today that the number of nine cases highlights the need for everybody to maintain a high level of vigilance in level 4 and as we move to level 3.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121279355/coronavirus-update-the-latest-on-covid19-in-new-zealand

Part of the problem is also that people lie to the people tracing, and it can take weeks to actually contact people,while the virus silently spreads https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/coronavirus-covid-19-clusters/. Relaxing lockdown relies on so much good faith that everyone will do things right, because unlike level 4, there is less margin of error if people don't do things right, due to more risk of bubbles merging, and bubbles will merge though events like a school day.

I would also like to see far more information on why these people are getting infected. I am not sure if it is partly our privacy laws that are preventing this? I hope not, because IMO it is vital information that can help the public know why it is still spreading between these people, and what actions can be done to prevent it. Otherwise other workplaces may continue to make the same errors with processes, if that is what is occurring. Especially as we continue to learn more and more by the day on how this virus works.

This is also a concerning story, especially based on how many people maybe seem to going to be rushing out to get their fast food fix.

Coronavirus: McDonalds' plans to hand customers food, cash and receipts, which breaches level 3 rules, union says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121283314/coronavirus-mcdonalds-plans-to-hand-customers-food-cash-and-receipts-which-breaches-level-3-rules-union-says

What about any touch screen ordering systems that fast food restaurants use?

Also why are we not banning cash transactions, like some other countries have done, and require contact less payments? Most banks seem to have now upped the limit to $200, so it should allow this to occur.

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#2471679 26-Apr-2020 17:33

mattwnz:

Outside my house now I can see a bunch of people having drinks on chairs in the roundabout in the middle of the street as an organised covid 19 street meetup. Each bubble isolated by two metres. I previously posted about it on here, and I didn't think it was a good idea and didn't go.

I'm interested to know your thoughts on why you thought it wasn't a good idea.

Properly managed I think something like this can have benefits especially from a mental health point of view. Humans are social animals, we need social interaction. We have had social interactions in our neighbourhood when out for a walk or bike ride but kept the required two metres.

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mattwnz

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#2471685 26-Apr-2020 17:46

Technofreak:

I'm interested to know your thoughts on why you thought it wasn't a good idea.

Properly managed I think something like this can have benefits especially from a mental health point of view. Humans are social animals, we need social interaction. We have had social interactions in our neighbourhood when out for a walk or bike ride but kept the required two metres.

For one I don't think it is allowed under level 4 anyway. My understanding when the PM spelt level 4 out a month ago, was that people could go for a walk, and pass someone i the street briefly for a quick hello retaining a 2 metre difference , but not stop and have a conversation with them. Instead to phone them or use video chat etc.

But people haven't been able to go to funerals due to level 4, even if they did it outside and socially distanced each bubble by 2 metres. Only people who were in the same isolation bubble as the deceased could do this, so many close family members couldn't say goodbye. https://covid19.govt.nz/individuals-and-households/health-and-wellbeing/funerals-and-tangi/#funerals-and-tangi-at-alert-level-4
Also the same with ANZAC day, events were canceled, even though they could have been done in smaller groups where bubbles were isolated by 2 metres. But that wasn't permitted, and IMO this in't much different in terms of risk and what the intention of level 4 is. Granted though the risk is currently a lot smaller than a few weeks ago, and I do see you point too.

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#2471686 26-Apr-2020 17:47

mattwnz:

For one I don't think it is allowed under level 4 anyway. My understanding when the PM spelt level 4 out a month ago, was that people could go for a walk, and pass someone i the street briefly for a quick hello retaining a 2 metre difference , but not stop and have a conversation with them. Instead to phone them or use video chat etc.

But people haven't been able to go to funerals due to level 4, even if they did it outside and sociall distanced each bubble by 2 metres. Only people who were in the same isolation bubble, so many close family members couldn't say goodbye. https://covid19.govt.nz/individuals-and-households/health-and-wellbeing/funerals-and-tangi/#funerals-and-tangi-at-alert-level-4
Also the same with ANZAC day, events were canceled, even though they could have been done in smaller groups where people were isolated by 2 metres. But that wasn't permitted, and IMO this in't much different in terms of risk and what the intention of level 4 is. Granted though the risk is currently a lot smaller than a few weeks ago, and I do see you point too.

Fair points.

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#2471687 26-Apr-2020 17:50

mattwnz:

Coronavirus: McDonalds' plans to hand customers food, cash and receipts, which breaches level 3 rules, union says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121283314/coronavirus-mcdonalds-plans-to-hand-customers-food-cash-and-receipts-which-breaches-level-3-rules-union-says

What about any touch screen ordering systems that fast food restaurants use?

Also why are we not banning cash transactions, like some other countries have done, and require contact less payments? Most banks seem to have now upped the limit to $200, so it should allow this to occur.

My EFTPOS card doesn't offer a contact less payment option. I don't know how many people would be affected by this limitation

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