2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

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#2483188 13-May-2020 21:37

An article from CDC (US):

High SARS-CoV-2 Attack Rate Following Exposure at a Choir Practice

The act of singing itself, might have contributed to transmission through emission of aerosols, which is affected by loudness of vocalization "Aerosol emission and superemission during human speech increase with voice loudness".

dejadeadnz

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#2483189 13-May-2020 21:43

Oblivian:

(a) an infringement fee of $300; or
(b) a fine imposed by a court not exceeding $1,000.

The infringement fines are way too low. Should be $1,000. And the police should be handing them out like lollies to every person who breaks the law.

Fred99

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#2483247 13-May-2020 22:51

A very good (and easily readable) article (IMO) in The Guardian, an interview with the economist Thomas Piketty.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/will-coronavirus-lead-to-fairer-societies-thomas-piketty-explores-the-prospect

tdgeek

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#2483293 14-May-2020 06:33

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Good news. Extraordinary measures for extraordinary times. Then, it will be auto-repealed when this crisis is over.

No conspiracy.

Except when that will be? When does it cease being a crisis. Elimination and out of all levels? Or if we fail at elimination, until / if a vaccine comes along, because the world has covid until at least then?

I imagine once L2 has been in place for a month we all still see a few cases most days or 1 case hardly ever. If we start getting told each new case posed no risk, that's highly controlled. Then its not a crisis, highly manageable. TBH though, if we allow any international travel, I dunno how that will go, unless there is an airport test that gets a result in an hour or so, otherwise its a risk

frankv

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#2483359 14-May-2020 08:25

tdgeek:

TBH though, if we allow any international travel, I dunno how that will go, unless there is an airport test that gets a result in an hour or so, otherwise its a risk

An airport test that takes 2 days, as is available now, is vastly better than 2 weeks quarantine. If only the tests had less false negatives. Maybe require 2 clear tests, 24 hours apart, so effectively 3 days quarantine. That's probably acceptable for someone coming here for 3 or 4 weeks holiday, especially if there's somewhere reasonably nice to quarantine in.

tdgeek

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#2483374 14-May-2020 08:46

frankv:

tdgeek:

TBH though, if we allow any international travel, I dunno how that will go, unless there is an airport test that gets a result in an hour or so, otherwise its a risk

An airport test that takes 2 days, as is available now, is vastly better than 2 weeks quarantine. If only the tests had less false negatives. Maybe require 2 clear tests, 24 hours apart, so effectively 3 days quarantine. That's probably acceptable for someone coming here for 3 or 4 weeks holiday, especially if there's somewhere reasonably nice to quarantine in.

Who would pay for that though?

nzkiwiman

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#2483376 14-May-2020 08:51

Oblivian:

New instant fine like Aus has, and new explicit notes bypassing waiting around for a warrant (much like Search and Surveillance act allows) since the above no longer covers it as broadly on the lapse of a SoE

Excellent, hope they manage to hit those people who don't think society laws apply to them

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frankv

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#2483422 14-May-2020 09:46

tdgeek:

frankv:

An airport test that takes 2 days, as is available now, is vastly better than 2 weeks quarantine. If only the tests had less false negatives. Maybe require 2 clear tests, 24 hours apart, so effectively 3 days quarantine. That's probably acceptable for someone coming here for 3 or 4 weeks holiday, especially if there's somewhere reasonably nice to quarantine in.

Who would pay for that though?

I think we pay... they're still giving up 3 of 21 days holiday freedom, and we want to entice them to come to NZ and spend their tourist dollars. If we don't care whether they come or not, they pay.

Fred99

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#2483539 14-May-2020 10:21

frankv:

An airport test that takes 2 days, as is available now, is vastly better than 2 weeks quarantine. If only the tests had less false negatives. Maybe require 2 clear tests, 24 hours apart, so effectively 3 days quarantine. That's probably acceptable for someone coming here for 3 or 4 weeks holiday, especially if there's somewhere reasonably nice to quarantine in.

I don't think it's going to be possible to eliminate false negatives from PCR - only improve the accuracy, and I doubt there's going to be a quick serology antibody test that tells any more than that a person has been infected - but that's not going to tell if they're still infected - they could have recovered and be virus free months ago, or could have just been infected, test negative by PCR and serology, not yet have any symptom/fever etc, but be a ticking time bomb.

Even trans-Tasman travel (if we can agree with Aus), then what happens if under reduced lockdown we (or they) have an outbreak of CT that needs to be ring-fenced? (as has been suggested could be implemented by region here).

ezbee

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#2483616 14-May-2020 11:24

While I have been generally Ok with our approach of giving warnings and educating public , and saving fines and other measures for repeat offenders, demonstrable deliberation.

I've been a bit surprised about the degree of latitude given to this person.
They resisted control measures ( Risking all that had to detain them ), rather than release to a strict quarantine location, they were rewarded with being able to go home ?
Perhaps before the test result was known.

I would hope we do not have more of these.
Compliance to boarder measures is going to be critical to our future opening bubble to other counties.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/14/1171394/quarantine-measures-have-caught-25-cases

On Monday, it was revealed one New Zealander who returned from the United States on Anzac Day refused a medical examination.

She was held in Auckland Women’s Prison for 10 days charged with failing to comply with a direction from a person authorised by a medical officer of health under Section 70 of the Health Act.

Eventually, she agreed to a test and received bail. She was released before the positive test result was known.

A Ministry of Health spokesperson said she travelled by private vehicle from Auckland to the MidCentral DHB area and is now in self-isolation at a private residence.

“We are confident there is no wider public health risk.”

tdgeek

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#2483631 14-May-2020 12:00

Maybe the 10 days was enough to allow symptoms to appear? I doubt if she was a risk they'd just set her free, bearing in mind that self isolation can be set free if she so chooses

cshwone

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#2483646 14-May-2020 12:11

tdgeek:

Maybe the 10 days was enough to allow symptoms to appear? I doubt if she was a risk they'd just set her free, bearing in mind that self isolation can be set free if she so chooses

Her test came back positive. Very surprised she wasn't detained until the test results were known.

kingdragonfly

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#2483764 14-May-2020 13:33

New York Times: U.S. Accuses China-Linked Hackers of Stealing Coronavirus Research

U.S. Accuses China-Linked Hackers of Stealing Coronavirus Research

China-linked hackers are breaking into American organizations carrying out research into COVID-19, U.S. officials said on Wednesday, warning both scientists and public health officials to be on the lookout for cyber theft.

In a joint statement, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Homeland Security said the FBI was investigating digital break-ins at U.S. organizations by China-linked "cyber actors" that it had monitored "attempting to identify and illicitly obtain valuable intellectual property (IP) and public health data related to vaccines, treatments, and testing from networks and personnel affiliated with COVID-19-related research."

...Coronavirus-related research and data have emerged as a key intelligence priority for hackers of all stripes and Western intelligence organizations have repeatedly sounded the alarm over the targeting of public health and pharmaceutical organizations.

In a separate statement issued earlier on Wednesday, the head of New Zealand's signals intelligence agency said it condemned any attempt to target COVID response-related infrastructure.

"We call upon all cyber actors to refrain from activity that may jeopardise national or international responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," said Andrew Hampton, the director-general of New Zealand's Government Communications Security Bureau.

Last week Reuters reported that Iran-linked cyberspies had targeted staff at U.S. drugmaker Gilead Sciences Inc., whose antiviral drug remdesivir is the only treatment so far proven to help COVID-19 patients.

In March and April, Reuters reported on advanced hackers' attempts to break into the World Health Organization as the pandemic spread across the globe.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/13/technology/13reuters-health-coronavirus-china-cyber.html

Fred99

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#2483769 14-May-2020 13:50

More accurate data on total community infection rates from which Infection Fatality Rates can be estimated have come from Lombardy and Spain. Others have back-calculated this to estimate the IFR at about 1.2%. That's going to be variable from region to region because of demographics etc, but IMO gives an ability to estimate the threat. For example if you assume a 60% infection rate before "herd immunity" kicks in, then with an unchecked epidemic in NZ, 60,000 deaths may be a ballpark. More evidence we did that right thing - as that's a horrific toll.
There's still plenty of scope for that to be wrong, but it counters wildly optimistic early population serology estimates using poor randomised sampling and tests that gave far too many false positives - the results of which were being reported in some media - basically presented as evidence that "it's just the flu".

frankv

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#2483811 14-May-2020 14:00

kingdragonfly:

In a joint statement, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Homeland Security said the FBI was investigating digital break-ins at U.S. organizations by China-linked "cyber actors" that it had monitored "attempting to identify and illicitly obtain valuable intellectual property (IP) and public health data related to vaccines, treatments, and testing from networks and personnel affiliated with COVID-19-related research."

...Coronavirus-related research and data have emerged as a key intelligence priority for hackers of all stripes and Western intelligence organizations have repeatedly sounded the alarm over the targeting of public health and pharmaceutical organizations.

In a separate statement issued earlier on Wednesday, the head of New Zealand's signals intelligence agency said it condemned any attempt to target COVID response-related infrastructure.

Ummm... shouldn't we be condemning the people who want to keep covid-19 vaccine and treatment information secret for profit?

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