2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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527 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#3470727 16-Mar-2026 09:21

MaxineN:

I actually wanted to join in on the discussion, but if that's what someone is going to think about me if I call out how uncomfortable it is for someone who unfortunately is not in a position to go buy an EV, is worse off thanks to the current government, is also very uncomfortable with how idle our government is and wants to run it like it's some airline company, then I better not reply further. Congratulations.

Your voice is welcome. And not everybody is in a fortunate enough position to WFH, buy and EV etc.

My wife works for a care organisation and says most home care workers get a small petrol/car allowance that did not cover costs before the latest price rises. There is no option for WFH, and the wages are too low for many of them to buy even a cheap Leaf (they need more range).

The biggest downside of the government pulling support for fleet transition to EVs is that the future supply of cheap second/third hand EVs has slowed to a trickle.

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wellygary

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#3470730 16-Mar-2026 09:31

MaxineN:

I am not asking for a magic wand. There is this thing called public transport that they could potentially put some effort in rather than reducing the $$$ in it. Perhaps killing off the Clean Car discount was a terrible idea?

Or maybe the government could consider suggestions/guidelines(maybe mandates, remember COVID?) potentially jobs that could be WFH just be WFH to put less cars on the road, which yes would just ease the demand, ease the pain and maybe I dunno spend less???

Isn't $3 a litre a big encouragement to use public transport ... Would $4 a litre be a better

The COVID enquiries have just concluded that mandates and social restrictions (WFH, travel bans etc) created significant long lasting social disruption. I can't see any government looking at mandates again in the near future.

SaltyNZ

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#3470733 16-Mar-2026 09:40

mudguard:

Yeah seeing some friend's photos of restored mining areas, still whopping great big holes and steep sides pits. I've always liked the aesthetic of wind turbines, what is the opposition to solar farms? The look? The risk? I mean grass paddocks and fences aren't exactly natural either.

My (Australian) parents insist solar panels are toxic to sheep and that our cousins from Tamworth have had to sign special hazard certification forms to say their livestock has not come into contact with solar panels. Reading the actual form, it's more about obviously degraded and dangerous equipment and chemicals of all kinds and solar panels are only mentioned in passing, after far more obvious hazards like old batteries, paint, agrichemicals and physical hazards like broken machinery.

Anyway the point is that there are some farmers who actually believe that meat from animals grazed under solar panels is toxic.

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SaltyNZ

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#3470740 16-Mar-2026 09:44

wellygary:

The COVID enquiries have just concluded that mandates and social restrictions (WFH, travel bans etc) created significant long lasting social disruption. I can't see any government looking at mandates again in the near future.

They don't have to mandate WFH. But they could make it illegal for companies to insist on office presence for any worker where WFH is possible. We already have laws on the books regarding flexible working conditions. Should be a relatively small tweak. But given this government is itself hostile to WFH (remember how Willis insisted that public service employees should not be allowed as it was killing the cafes in Wellington?) that's unlikely either.

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SaltyNZ

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#3470742 16-Mar-2026 09:46

fastbike:

On the good news front, I bought a new EV from a dealer in Wellington, last week and have just received notification that it is booked for transport over the other Strait - the non mined one :)

I put a deposit on a new Seal on Thursday. It won't be ready till May/June, which does worry me a little - I half expect to get stung with a surcharge when they put it on the ship. I'd rather they defer the shipping than pay more. I do have a perfectly good Tesla in the meantime.

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gzt

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#3470754 16-Mar-2026 10:08

SaltyNZ: They don't have to mandate WFH. But they could make it illegal for companies to insist on office presence for any worker where WFH is possible. We already have laws on the books regarding flexible working conditions. Should be a relatively small tweak. But given this government is itself hostile to WFH (remember how Willis insisted that public service employees should not be allowed as it was killing the cafes in Wellington?) that's unlikely either.

Some steering is definitely required I don't think we are yet at the point of directives. In the WFH case a suggestion seems unlikely just because ACT's leader David Seymour is illogically opposed to WFH. I don't see Luxon going in any direction.

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wellygary

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#3470764 16-Mar-2026 10:25

SaltyNZ:

(remember how Willis insisted that public service employees should not be allowed as it was killing the cafes in Wellington?) that's unlikely either.

Currently 50% of all Journeys to work in Wellington city are on public transport, all the trains are electric and so are many of the high frequency bus routes... The share of Public Servants using PT is likely to be even higher. they don't need to WFH because of fuel rationing..

SaltyNZ

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#3470769 16-Mar-2026 10:39

wellygary:

Currently 50% of all Journeys to work in Wellington city are on public transport, all the trains are electric and so are many of the high frequency bus routes... The share of Public Servants using PT is likely to be even higher. they don't need to WFH because of fuel rationing..

Sounds like some sort of communist hellscape. Real hard-working Kiwis sit stationary in traffic in their Ford Rangers and gun the throttle suggestively every time they see a pedestrian.

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fastbike

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Ultimate Geek
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#3470770 16-Mar-2026 10:40

wellygary:

SaltyNZ:

(remember how Willis insisted that public service employees should not be allowed as it was killing the cafes in Wellington?) that's unlikely either.

Currently 50% of all Journeys to work in Wellington city are on public transport, all the trains are electric and so are many of the high frequency bus routes... The share of Public Servants using PT is likely to be even higher. they don't need to WFH because of fuel rationing..

Great we're sorted then /s

What percentage of workers in NZ have the option of electrified PT or an EV ?

What percentage of fuel use in the productive part of the economy has no alternative fuel options.

Anyway the problem is much bigger than "I'm feeling pain at the pump boss, can I WFH ?"

The interconnectedness of the problems coming down the pike are explored here

P.S. Census 2023 puts the percentage of Wellington workers using PT at a much lower figure ~ 15.5%

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cddt

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#3470773 16-Mar-2026 10:43

wellygary:

Isn't $3 a litre a big encouragement to use public transport ... Would $4 a litre be a better

Two stages in Auckland is $4.90. And that's not long distance, that's from an isthmus suburb (i.e. central) to the CBD. For a couple commuting to work that's $19.60 / day, which buys plenty of petrol.

On the weekend add some child fares ($2.90) and cheap parking and the difference is even more stark. $37 to get my family 6 km into the city and back on a bus... doesn't make sense.

I do love PT and have used it extensively (I didn't own a car for seven years), but how the price structure in Auckland is set it is too expensive to think that fuel price will be a significant driver of behaviour change.

fastbike

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Ultimate Geek
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#3470774 16-Mar-2026 10:43

SaltyNZ:

Real hard-working Kiwis sit stationary in traffic in their Ford Rangers and gun the throttle suggestively every time they see a pedestrian.

A colleague who lives in Rangiora (small town 25km north from here) reported a distinct lack of Rangers roaming around town in the weekend. Either they are conscientious and doing their bit to save fuel, or they can't do high car repayments and higher fuel prices simultaneously LoL

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#3470775 16-Mar-2026 10:45

I popped over to thames yesterday for a trademe pickup and saw so many people out with their classics. I figure that they think its probably the last time they can do it for a while so getting that in before winter and high prices for however long.

Richard rich.ms

gzt

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#3470776 16-Mar-2026 10:46

wellygary:
SaltyNZ: (remember how Willis insisted that public service employees should not be allowed as it was killing the cafes in Wellington?) that's unlikely either.
Currently 50% of all Journeys to work in Wellington city are on public transport, all the trains are electric and so are many of the high frequency bus routes... The share of Public Servants using PT is likely to be even higher. they don't need to WFH because of fuel rationing..

It's a relevant datapoint for Wellington. The world is a big bigger than that. At some point the homecare renumeration needs to be sorted out. I expect the government will do that but I just see the current opaqueness as causing unnecessary stress.

cddt

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#3470777 16-Mar-2026 10:47

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-price-rationing-long-game-shamubeel-eaqub-cuife/ pretty much where a lot of my thinking is at too.

fastbike

527 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#3470795 16-Mar-2026 10:54

cddt:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-price-rationing-long-game-shamubeel-eaqub-cuife/ pretty much where a lot of my thinking is at too.

Thanks for the link. You'd be interested in the Wise Response suggestions for rationing otherwise it just becomes a cluster where folks with cash get to keep driving and everyone else suffers

Otautahi Christchurch

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