2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3470800 16-Mar-2026 11:22

cddt:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-price-rationing-long-game-shamubeel-eaqub-cuife/ pretty much where a lot of my thinking is at too.

Author wants New Zealand to move from reactive crisis management to proactive, structural energy security, focusing on renewable energy, domestic resilience, and strategic planning to reduce vulnerability to global oil shocks.

SheriffNZ

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#3470801 16-Mar-2026 11:24

kingdragonfly:
cddt:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-price-rationing-long-game-shamubeel-eaqub-cuife/ pretty much where a lot of my thinking is at too.

Author wants New Zealand to move from reactive crisis management to proactive, structural energy security, focusing on renewable energy, domestic resilience, and strategic planning to reduce vulnerability to global oil shocks.

Seems fair.

HarmLessSolutions

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#3470805 16-Mar-2026 11:36

fastbike:

cddt:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-price-rationing-long-game-shamubeel-eaqub-cuife/ pretty much where a lot of my thinking is at too.

Thanks for the link. You'd be interested in the Wise Response suggestions for rationing otherwise it just becomes a cluster where folks with cash get to keep driving and everyone else suffers

That Stuff article is a précis of Wise Response's substack. The TEQ option has more detail than the Stuff article gives and is an interesting and elegant system, if our lack lustre government can manage to pull their heads out of the sand in time to implement it.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

SaltyNZ

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#3470814 16-Mar-2026 12:00

cddt:

wellygary:

Isn't $3 a litre a big encouragement to use public transport ... Would $4 a litre be a better

Two stages in Auckland is $4.90. And that's not long distance, that's from an isthmus suburb (i.e. central) to the CBD. For a couple commuting to work that's $19.60 / day, which buys plenty of petrol.

On the weekend add some child fares ($2.90) and cheap parking and the difference is even more stark. $37 to get my family 6 km into the city and back on a bus... doesn't make sense.

I do love PT and have used it extensively (I didn't own a car for seven years), but how the price structure in Auckland is set it is too expensive to think that fuel price will be a significant driver of behaviour change.

Yeah it's ridiculous. For us - because we are privileged to have EVs - it costs maybe $17 (if you include RUCs and electricity) to drive me and my wife to work together (2degrees and Kordia being right next door to each other) and park, or $15.40 each to catch the bus, and we have to drive at least a quarter of the way there anyway to get to the bus station.

The bus should be free and parking should be extortion.

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mudguard

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#3470815 16-Mar-2026 12:14

richms:

I popped over to thames yesterday for a trademe pickup and saw so many people out with their classics. I figure that they think its probably the last time they can do it for a while so getting that in before winter and high prices for however long.

If it's anything my like my "classic" (old VTEC Civic) I drive it so little that the fact I have to use 98 is irrelevant. Think it's done 300kms so far this year!

If you were daily commuting some big block V8 then it may be a different story!!

cruxis

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#3470845 16-Mar-2026 13:39

I am no longer going to mow my berm, doing my bit to save fuel.

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shk292

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#3470846 16-Mar-2026 13:40

SaltyNZ:

Yeah it's ridiculous. For us - because we are privileged to have EVs - it costs maybe $17 (if you include RUCs and electricity) to drive me and my wife to work together (2degrees and Kordia being right next door to each other) and park, or $15.40 each to catch the bus, and we have to drive at least a quarter of the way there anyway to get to the bus station.

The bus should be free and parking should be extortion.

worth remembering there is a $50 weekly cap on AT fares, so if you calculate per week the differences aren’t so clear

SaltyNZ

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#3470848 16-Mar-2026 13:52

shk292:

SaltyNZ:

Yeah it's ridiculous. For us - because we are privileged to have EVs - it costs maybe $17 (if you include RUCs and electricity) to drive me and my wife to work together (2degrees and Kordia being right next door to each other) and park, or $15.40 each to catch the bus, and we have to drive at least a quarter of the way there anyway to get to the bus station.

The bus should be free and parking should be extortion.

worth remembering there is a $50 weekly cap on AT fares, so if you calculate per week the differences aren’t so clear

Yeah that complicates it a bit but I normally WFH two days a week so I don't trigger that anyway. My wife does go in most days though.

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cddt

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#3470924 16-Mar-2026 15:52

shk292:

worth remembering there is a $50 weekly cap on AT fares, so if you calculate per week the differences aren’t so clear

It's $50 no matter how many stages you use. If you commute five days a week from anywhere on the the isthmus to the CBD (and most CBD workers don't do that anymore), you will spend $49.

There are better pricing models to encourage both peak (commuting) and off-peak (discretionary) travel. AT should look overseas (and I don't suggest a junket, rather checking the website and consider what behaviours the pricing would incentivise e.g. https://www.zvv.ch/en/travelcards-and-tickets/travelcards/network-pass.html). If they truly want to maximise total trips and distance traveled via PT then annual passes are a quick win. If exempt from FBT then it would be a good perk for employers to offer employees.

Benoire

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#3470926 16-Mar-2026 15:57

cddt:

shk292:

worth remembering there is a $50 weekly cap on AT fares, so if you calculate per week the differences aren’t so clear

It's $50 no matter how many stages you use. If you commute five days a week from anywhere on the the isthmus to the CBD (and most CBD workers don't do that anymore), you will spend $49.

There are better pricing models to encourage both peak (commuting) and off-peak (discretionary) travel. AT should look overseas (and I don't suggest a junket, rather checking the website and consider what behaviours the pricing would incentivise e.g. https://www.zvv.ch/en/travelcards-and-tickets/travelcards/network-pass.html). If they truly want to maximise total trips and distance traveled via PT then annual passes are a quick win. If exempt from FBT then it would be a good perk for employers to offer employees.

AT offers fareshare which is a scheme that allows a company to subsidise up to 75% of the fare - its been rolled out internally at a lower percentage and makes a difference; I would say the majority of the 2000 staff are using PT to access the offices with only a small amount driving from recent surveys.

I would also add that the farebox recovery set by NZTA and directed by Government is a disincentive to PT travel meaning that each fare costs more than it could. London had to massively subsidise PT travel for years to get the uptake they needed to bring the total cost per passenger down to a decent level. Council would love to have lower fares but that either means greater rates subsidy (politicians - yeah/nah) or greater national subsidy (politicians - yeah/nah).

Handle9

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#3470928 16-Mar-2026 16:08

SaltyNZ:

mattwnz:

I am not sure if an end of life bond should be paid, that builds up over time as it makes money.

100% This. Bonds for make-good are invested in trust with a reputable market manager. At the point it is decided to return it to green fields the money is used to pay for it and any leftovers from the investment returns are given back to the owners. We've been stung too many times - mainly by mining, to be fair - not to start demanding this. At least for things where the clean up is especially expensive.

Then you further kill any industrial base and move more of it to the developing world. No company has that sort of money able to sit around in bonds.

If, for example, 2degrees had to pay a bond for removal of all cell towers they would never have gotten up.

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wellygary

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#3470930 16-Mar-2026 16:14

Benoire:

London had to massively subsidise PT travel for years to get the uptake they needed to bring the total cost per passenger down to a decent level. Council would love to have lower fares but that either means greater rates subsidy (politicians - yeah/nah) or greater national subsidy (politicians - yeah/nah).

Yeah but even now the Tube is not cheap, ...

The zone one daily fare cap is 9 quid (45 a week). It makes AT's $50 weekly fare cap positively progressive...
( although granted London has a larger network, but more people yaddah yaddah,)

deepred

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#3470935 16-Mar-2026 16:23

Rod Emmerson's cartoon in the Herald on Sunday:

"I regret to say that we of the F.B.I. are powerless to act in cases of oral-genital intimacy, unless it has in some way obstructed interstate commerce." — J. Edgar Hoover

"Create a society that values material things above all else. Strip it of industry. Raise taxes for the poor and reduce them for the rich and for corporations. Prop up failed financial institutions with public money. Ask for more tax, while vastly reducing public services. Put adverts everywhere, regardless of people's ability to afford the things they advertise. Allow the cost of food and housing to eclipse people's ability to pay for them. Light blue touch paper." — Andrew Maxwell

wellygary

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#3470938 16-Mar-2026 16:37

deepred:

"Watching Mad Max Fury road"

Only because they were too embarrassed to recommend re watching NZ's own Shlock, coat tail hopping, post oil war masterpiece "BattleTruck" :)

https://www.nzonscreen.com/title/battletruck-1982/overview

SaltyNZ

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#3470965 16-Mar-2026 17:49

Handle9:

Then you further kill any industrial base and move more of it to the developing world. No company has that sort of money able to sit around in bonds.

If, for example, 2degrees had to pay a bond for removal of all cell towers they would never have gotten up.

Bonds are pretty common in some places.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

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