2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3471042 17-Mar-2026 09:04

tstone:

I don't think so, South Korea is one of our biggest risks for supply. Maybe don't be so quick to dismiss the risks:

"The problem, however, is that Singapore has already lost access to 70% of its crude oil imports (due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz). If Singapore has no access to oil, then it won’t have anything to refine.".

"South Korea is similarly heavily reliant on the Persian Gulf for access to oil, and the country’s Government has already started talking about an export ban in a bid to prioritise local industry.".

https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/360951816/willis-says-we-have-52-day-fuel-buffer-numbers-arent-clear-cut

True, but both Korea and Singapore and not "Just in Time" processors,

They are both sitting on fairly significant stockpiles they can eat into to continue to operate their refineries, Korea is about 50/50 export/domestic production, which would imply its sitting on oil to run refineries for at least another 90 days.

"South Korea

Reserve duration: 208 days

South Korea's strategic reserves are managed by the Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) and are designed to sustain the country for nearly seven months."

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/589660/the-hormuz-buffer-asian-oil-security-amid-prolonged-middle-east-conflict

Singapore's Reserves are a state secret, but were described as "months"

MurrayM

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#3471059 17-Mar-2026 10:33

SaltyNZ:

They've spent the last 2.5 years nonstop blaming the previous government (who had to steer us through a once-in-a-hundred-years global crisis, plus a couple of others) for screwing the economy. Now they're entering their own crisis, which could end up being every bit as bad as COVID if not worse, and it's clearly scaring them witless because they thought they were going to surf the inevitable rising wave of the economic cycle and cruise into a second term lauded as heroes. Now they're finding out what it's like to govern in an extreme situation that you can't control, all your options are bad, the best you can hope for is to screw the economy the least, and you will probably never know which option that was.

I sure hope there are people watching very closely and documenting everything that the coalition government is saying and doing. We'll need all of that evidence for when the official inquiries scrutinise the government's response in 4 or 5 years time. The inquiries can ask questions such as: Did the govt move too fast or too slow? Did they spend too much money trying to avert disaster or not enough? Did any of the govt's actions make things worse? Why wasn't there already plans in place to handle all the multitude of problems that flowed on from the initial problem? Were some people asked to do things for the common good but saw it not as a duty but as an unjust imposition? Did some people feel their god-given rights were trampled on?

(Just to be clear, I'm having a dig at the current govt and their pettiness to try to hold the previous govt to account for perceived inadequacies in their COVID response).

SaltyNZ:

FWIW though, I think sitting back and simply letting rising fuel prices put a natural brake on whatever consumption can be avoided is the right approach for the time being.

Sure, I agree with you and don't think we need to start rationing fuel just yet, but I sure hope the government has plans in place so that if we do get to that point that they can activate those plans and not have to scramble to make something up. It's not something where you can just flip a switch and we instantly have fuel rationing, there needs to be a whole management plan and systems in place to handle it. Everyone (fuel companies, whomever is enforcing the rationing, the industries that are affected, the public, etc) all need to be on the same page and know how it works well in advance of turning it on. I'd say there would need to be a massive advertising campaign to let everyone know how it will work. This sort of thing doesn't come together with a couple of days notice.

wellygary

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#3471067 17-Mar-2026 11:12

MurrayM:

but I sure hope the government has plans in place so that if we do get to that point that they can activate those plans and not have to scramble to make something up. It's not something where you can just flip a switch and we instantly have fuel rationing, there needs to be a whole management plan and systems in place to handle it. Everyone (fuel companies, whomever is enforcing the rationing, the industries that are affected, the public, etc) all need to be on the same page and know how it works well in advance of turning it on. I'd say there would need to be a massive advertising campaign to let everyone know how it will work. This sort of thing doesn't come together with a couple of days notice.

Its all in here, The 2024 national Fuel plan, its pretty detailed

https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/documents/publications/guidelines/supporting-plans/National-fuel-plan/SP-04-24-National-Fuel-Plan-Final-2024.pdf

mattwnz

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#3471069 17-Mar-2026 11:16

What the current governments spin doctors are doing by using COVID enquires as electioneering looks to be back firing when we have another potential crisis.
but you got to wonder why these oil nations put so much faith in an area of sea next to such a volatile nation when there was relatively high risk of some form of conflict. I guess that is why they built a pipeline across the country to another sea passage so they could have redundancy. Trump also has a nerve putting tariffs on ask other countries, starts a war and then expects so those countries to help him with things backfire

NZ again lacks planning with fuel energy security and government comes out looking exposed again with ambulance and bottom of cliff stuff. Also looking stupid for significantly reducing EV uptake by changing policies and incentives to transition car fleet off oil

SheriffNZ

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#3471071 17-Mar-2026 11:27

mattwnz:

What the current governments spin doctors are doing by using COVID enquires as electioneering looks to be back firing when we have another potential crisis.
but you got to wonder why these oil nations put so much faith in an area of sea next to such a volatile nation when there was relatively high risk of some form of conflict. I guess that is why they built a pipeline across the country to another sea passage so they could have redundancy. Trump also has a nerve putting tariffs on ask other countries, starts a war and then expects so those countries to help him with things backfire

NZ again lacks planning with fuel energy security and government comes out looking exposed again with ambulance and bottom of cliff stuff. Also looking stupid for significantly reducing EV uptake by changing policies and incentives to transition car fleet off oil

This!

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#3471072 17-Mar-2026 11:53

From a strictly price perspective, don’t know what you guts are complaining about. EV options have increased and virtually every EV is on big discounts since the cash back was removed. If people don’t want to buy massively discounted EVs then I don’t know what the cash back removal has got any thing to do with it

i bought 2 new EVs after the cash back was removed one at 40% off list and the next one at 30% off list. Way more than the cash back.

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ezbee

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#3471074 17-Mar-2026 11:55

One illustration of how we have let our eyes off fuel dependance.

Tauranga carries an ever larger portion of our imports and exports.
Twice or more the size of the next largest port Auckland that is also isolated from electric rail network.
With fastest growth?
https://www.deloitte.com/nz/en/Industries/infrastructure/research/new-zealand-ports-and-freight-yearbook.html

Access for trucks is very inefficient as many have to grind up over the hump.

The rail link is not electrified despite this. Efficient mass transit is so woke.
Capacity limited as diesel trains have to be spaced out because of fumes through Kaimai tunnel.

Never mind that Hamilton logistics hub, to ports of Auckland is gapped too, so its diesels again.
Then because of hassles exchanging locos etc you use diesels more widely through whole network.

If electrified it also means that with a few spare Auckland EMUs we can have fast 'fuel free' passenger links. The Spanish manufacturer apparently rates these up to 110m/h, much of these lines are fairly straight? Electrics also accelerate faster out of areas they do have to slow down for.
Sharing common maintenance infrastructure and such.

Japan gets 130Km/h out of its narrow gauge expresses. Second hand Japanese trains?

This is one, but surely many other examples up and down the country where diesel could be saved for farming/industry where there is no choice.
Opportunity wasted at cost to whole economy.

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#3471079 17-Mar-2026 12:20

Batman:

From a strictly price perspective, don’t know what you guts are complaining about. EV options have increased and virtually every EV is on big discounts since the cash back was removed. If people don’t want to buy massively discounted EVs then I don’t know what the cash back removal has got any thing to do with it

i bought 2 new EVs after the cash back was removed one at 40% off list and the next one at 30% off list. Way more than the cash back.

It's not either or.

The main reason you got yours at 40% off list price after the rebates ended is because sales immediately fell of a cliff and dealers needed to cut their losses. Long term, prices have fallen and would have done so even if the rebates had continued. A new MG 4 ($40,990 base model) is still somewhat more expensive than a new Corolla wagon ($38,990) - but if the rebates were still there, it would be thousands cheaper.

So yes, prices have fallen without the rebates. But it is still true that there would be more EVs on the road if they had continued.

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#3471081 17-Mar-2026 12:26

wellygary:

Its all in here, The 2024 national Fuel plan, its pretty detailed

https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/documents/publications/guidelines/supporting-plans/National-fuel-plan/SP-04-24-National-Fuel-Plan-Final-2024.pdf

It is indeed a splendid Plan, at the high level.
I have seen the Minister of Finance referring to a seven-level escalation strategy, but the official Plan lists only four. Interesting.

Table 4-2: Description of Escalation Levels for Fuel Response

rather more worryingly, Section 3.3 pushes down the responsibility for detailed - i.e where the rubber meets the road - planning to "Regional and local CDEM fuel plans". I know how little resource there is for local CDEM work, and how almost all of what there is goes into disaster response - some proactive but mostly reactive. Did the 2024 or 2025 Budget provide any funding for local & regional fuel plan development?

What sort of shape are these Regional and local CDEM fuel plans in?
I suspect some or all are being cobbled together right now as nobody got around to it since the national plan was published in 2024

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#3471085 17-Mar-2026 12:34

PolicyGuy:

It is indeed a splendid Plan, at the high level.
I have seen the Minister of Finance referring to a seven-level escalation strategy, but the official Plan lists only four. Interesting.

Based on how they disgustedly claimed there were 14 levels of management between doctors and patients in Labour's health ministry (of which at least one was actually the patient themselves) it is possible that one of the three extra levels is somehow "your car" and the other two exist only as the literal number "2".

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MurrayM

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#3471093 17-Mar-2026 13:04

wellygary:

MurrayM:

but I sure hope the government has plans in place so that if we do get to that point that they can activate those plans and not have to scramble to make something up. It's not something where you can just flip a switch and we instantly have fuel rationing, there needs to be a whole management plan and systems in place to handle it. Everyone (fuel companies, whomever is enforcing the rationing, the industries that are affected, the public, etc) all need to be on the same page and know how it works well in advance of turning it on. I'd say there would need to be a massive advertising campaign to let everyone know how it will work. This sort of thing doesn't come together with a couple of days notice.

Its all in here, The 2024 national Fuel plan, its pretty detailed

https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/documents/publications/guidelines/supporting-plans/National-fuel-plan/SP-04-24-National-Fuel-Plan-Final-2024.pdf

Well as a high-level document I suppose it's ok. I've skimmed through it and found it rather lacking in detail. The first 50 or so pages of the 79 page report talk about what the problem is, the various organisations involved, how it's important to have a plan, etc (certainly all important information that needs to be covered).

Finally in Section 5 we get to "Implementing fuel management measures". A few suggestions are made, such as diverting ships heading to Australia so they come to us instead, relax fuel specifications so we can take in lower grade fuel from elsewhere, relax transport regulations to allow for more fuel to be transported faster to where it's needed, etc; all great ideas that would be valid in some scenarios but don't really apply for the situation we're currently facing.

Then finally we get to some measures that might be applied to the current situation: "Voluntary fuel demand constraints", i.e. asking the public nicely not to use so much fuel. "Mandatory fuel demand constraints", i.e. getting a bit tougher and implementing ideas such as opening hour restrictions on service stations, maximum purchases, not allowing containers, etc. These are covered in just 1 and a half pages.

Lets hope that all the organisations mentioned in the report have some real plans in place for how things are going to work and exactly what they need to do to get the desired outcome.

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#3471101 17-Mar-2026 13:44

SaltyNZ:

The main reason you got yours at 40% off list price after the rebates ended is because sales immediately fell of a cliff and dealers needed to cut their losses. Long term, prices have fallen and would have done so even if the rebates had continued. A new MG 4 ($40,990 base model) is still somewhat more expensive than a new Corolla wagon ($38,990) - but if the rebates were still there, it would be thousands cheaper.

So yes, prices have fallen without the rebates. But it is still true that there would be more EVs on the road if they had continued.

if only economics were so straightforward, like marketing

with the removed rebates dealers had to cut prices

with the rebates in place the mg would be priced higher offsetting the rebate

The difference with marketing is people think ev is expensive because there is no rebate, if there is rebate, whatever price you ask people think its cheap because there is a rebate. Humans …. Sigh

the bottom line is, EVs are actually cheaper upon removal of rebates

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#3471102 17-Mar-2026 13:46

MurrayM:

such as diverting ships heading to Australia so they come to us instead,

How does that work, exactly? "Hey Shippy McShipface, don't go over there, it's full of Australians! Come over here instead. We've got nicer cheese!"

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#3471107 17-Mar-2026 13:57

SaltyNZ:

How does that work, exactly? "Hey Shippy McShipface, don't go over there, it's full of Australians! Come over here instead. We've got nicer cheese!"

the document accepts that "this is not always possible". maybe not at all, as the orginal destination (Australia) would have to agree. and why won't they want to have their supply shored up.

it could be something like, "for 25% more, perhaps your gps could lead you here instead?"

ezbee

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#3471113 17-Mar-2026 14:11

This is a practical use for our Frigates. :-)
Australia kinda hung Norfolk Island out to dry in Covid, so we could expect?

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