2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › 2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3471114 17-Mar-2026 14:12

Batman:

From a strictly price perspective, don’t know what you guts are complaining about. EV options have increased and virtually every EV is on big discounts since the cash back was removed. If people don’t want to buy massively discounted EVs then I don’t know what the cash back removal has got any thing to do with it

i bought 2 new EVs after the cash back was removed one at 40% off list and the next one at 30% off list. Way more than the cash back.

for a while there were some massive discounts on some EVs. I was interested in one that was half price. But I don’t think that is the case now so much, I think that was when they were trying to clear stock and older models after the rebate ended.

I don’t dispute you saying that with rebates, dealers may charge more. But surely they should have laws to prevent dealers doing that. Also the same thing could be said for any government subsidy or rebate such as the one they do for home insulation. Personally the cynic in me agrees with you at least in some cases. But it does still help to get people buying due to the perceived value it offers

also some manufacturers at the time were selling them cheaper than they were overseas, solely to get them under the rebate level to sell more

cddt

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#3471149 17-Mar-2026 15:36

Batman:

From a strictly price perspective, don’t know what you guts are complaining about. EV options have increased and virtually every EV is on big discounts since the cash back was removed. If people don’t want to buy massively discounted EVs then I don’t know what the cash back removal has got any thing to do with it

i bought 2 new EVs after the cash back was removed one at 40% off list and the next one at 30% off list. Way more than the cash back.

I think the majority of NZ cannot afford new vehicles. The secondhand / used market for EVs is a lot thinner.

cddt

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#3471152 17-Mar-2026 15:41

MurrayM:

Then finally we get to some measures that might be applied to the current situation: "Voluntary fuel demand constraints", i.e. asking the public nicely not to use so much fuel. "Mandatory fuel demand constraints", i.e. getting a bit tougher and implementing ideas such as opening hour restrictions on service stations, maximum purchases, not allowing containers, etc. These are covered in just 1 and a half pages.

Agreed, it's very concerning if this is the best they've got. Based on everything we know about the elasticity of fuel demand for transport, I will be flabbergasted if "Voluntary fuel demand constraints" reduces usage by more than 2%.

MikeAqua

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#3471153 17-Mar-2026 15:55

cddt:

Agreed, it's very concerning if this is the best they've got. Based on everything we know about the elasticity of fuel demand for transport, I will be flabbergasted if "Voluntary fuel demand constraints" reduces usage by more than 2%.

There are other measures being prepared, 1970s style.

Mike

wellygary

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#3471154 17-Mar-2026 16:01

cddt:

Agreed, it's very concerning if this is the best they've got. Based on everything we know about the elasticity of fuel demand for transport, I will be flabbergasted if "Voluntary fuel demand constraints" reduces usage by more than 2%.

Motu put NZ fuel elasticity at ~-0.66, and given we've seen a 20%+ increase in prices, we could see north of 10% reduction in Demand...

Even if you take the -0.2 that is also often thrown around, that's still close to of 5%

https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/23_10.pdf

deepred

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#3471163 17-Mar-2026 16:34

Did the Clean Car Discount only apply to passenger cars & light commercial vehicles? Or did it also apply to heavy commercials too?

Scania, Mercedes & Volvo now sell EV big rigs here, no indication of their prices or how many have been sold.

And as for electric cargo ships... https://www.marineinsight.com/worlds-largest-all-electric-container-ship-begins-sea-trials-in-china/

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deepred

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#3471164 17-Mar-2026 16:36

cddt:

Batman:

From a strictly price perspective, don’t know what you guts are complaining about. EV options have increased and virtually every EV is on big discounts since the cash back was removed. If people don’t want to buy massively discounted EVs then I don’t know what the cash back removal has got any thing to do with it

i bought 2 new EVs after the cash back was removed one at 40% off list and the next one at 30% off list. Way more than the cash back.

I think the majority of NZ cannot afford new vehicles. The secondhand / used market for EVs is a lot thinner.

As I mentioned earlier in the EV thread, Japanese car buyers still prefer hybrids over full electric, though it seems to be slowly changing. So for the time being, there'll be far more used Japanese hybrids than used EVs.

Scott3

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#3471170 17-Mar-2026 16:49

deepred:

Did the Clean Car Discount only apply to passenger cars & light commercial vehicles? Or did it also apply to heavy commercials too?

Scania, Mercedes & Volvo now sell EV big rigs here, no indication of their prices or how many have been sold.

And as for electric cargo ships... https://www.marineinsight.com/worlds-largest-all-electric-container-ship-begins-sea-trials-in-china/

Clean car discount was only for Light (4 wheeled) vehicles. Should note that Heavy EV's are exempt from RUC's out until 30 June 2027, and RUC's for larger trucks are really expensive, so there is a solid incentive in this area.

Stats on Heavy EV's are available, we have had 2466 Heavy BEV's in the NZ fleet (they must net off vehciles leaving the fleet as number of petrol heavy vehicles is declining

https://www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/fleet-statistics/sheet/monthly-mv-fleet

Something like 0.3% of the Heavy fleet is electric, which won't have a material impact on fuel supply issues.

Handle9

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#3471171 17-Mar-2026 16:56

MikeAqua:

cddt:

Agreed, it's very concerning if this is the best they've got. Based on everything we know about the elasticity of fuel demand for transport, I will be flabbergasted if "Voluntary fuel demand constraints" reduces usage by more than 2%.

There are other measures being prepared, 1970s style.

I think the government is doing a relatively good job of preparing the country for restrictions without scaring the horses unnecessarily. There’s no point in over communicating possible options yet as it will just cause more panic buying.

Much like during Covid no one knows what’s coming next so preparing a range of options and communicating them when they become necessary helps minimise the damage. Also like Covid it’s about the least bad option, there are no good options

NzBeagle

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#3471172 17-Mar-2026 16:59

Scott3:

deepred:

Did the Clean Car Discount only apply to passenger cars & light commercial vehicles? Or did it also apply to heavy commercials too?

Scania, Mercedes & Volvo now sell EV big rigs here, no indication of their prices or how many have been sold.

And as for electric cargo ships... https://www.marineinsight.com/worlds-largest-all-electric-container-ship-begins-sea-trials-in-china/

Clean car discount was only for Light (4 wheeled) vehicles. Should note that Heavy EV's are exempt from RUC's out until 30 June 2027, and RUC's for larger trucks are really expensive, so there is a solid incentive in this area.

Stats on Heavy EV's are available, we have had 2466 Heavy BEV's in the NZ fleet (they must net off vehciles leaving the fleet as number of petrol heavy vehicles is declining

https://www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/fleet-statistics/sheet/monthly-mv-fleet

Something like 0.3% of the Heavy fleet is electric, which won't have a material impact on fuel supply issues.

There were other avenues for the Heavy Fleet, many of the ones currently in the roads would've been through this. There are options, but the appetite is still lower than it should be. It would provide the biggest benefit.

Scott3

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#3471173 17-Mar-2026 17:04

cddt:

Agreed, it's very concerning if this is the best they've got. Based on everything we know about the elasticity of fuel demand for transport, I will be flabbergasted if "Voluntary fuel demand constraints" reduces usage by more than 2%.

I would be more positive.

A strong voluntary work from home push would lead to dramatically less driving. Most office type roles have the systems in place from the pandemic, and the big corporates would fall in line either to do their part, or from fear of being shamed in the media for not doing their part. The resulting reduction in traffic congestion would improve the efficiency of remaining vehicles on the road.

And there are a bunch of the population who just want to do the right thing, who will arrange their travel more efficiently, or use this as motivation to bike to work, set up carpools etc.

Issue is the vast majority of the wins here will be for petrol. Diesel & Jet A1 will be much harder. Expect they will need mandatory measures sooner.

I would not be surprised if we get to a point, where all diesel is restricted to critical users, meaning zero for anybody else. There also is the potential that commuting to work in critical roles will be removed from the eligibility list, with efforts made to find those people petrol or electric cars. Going to be seriously hard to dial back diesel use without major economic harm.

Jet A1 is a bit simpler. Airlines are classified as critical (along with emergency, military etc), Airlines will divy up (likley based on historic use) what is left over after after the emergency and military take what they need, and private use will be left with nothing.

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Scott3

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#3471177 17-Mar-2026 17:25

Handle9:

MikeAqua:

There are other measures being prepared, 1970s style.

I think the government is doing a relatively good job of preparing the country for restrictions without scaring the horses unnecessarily. There’s no point in over communicating possible options yet as it will just cause more panic buying.

Much like during Covid no one knows what’s coming next so preparing a range of options and communicating them when they become necessary helps minimise the damage. Also like Covid it’s about the least bad option, there are no good options

I agree.

We still have 6+ weeks up our sleeves before any real supply crunch hits. Little value in rushing restrictions though now, when there is a chance the USA could kiss and make up (well at least stop bombing) Iran, and there be no shortages.

Might as well use that time to design a good rationing / restriction system, incl the policy backend, so it can be rolled out overnight, restricting the impact of a huge wave of panic buying (contrast with covid restrictions where announcements often came ahead of policy design).

Must I say it, I think it is probably good that those with a tendency to hoard get it out of their system now, while the local supply chain's are still solid. If such people already have a stack of jerry can's full at home, they are less likely to contribute to the drama when actual restrictions are announced.

The big unknown is how much we will need to cut back fuel use is the war continues.

0% (buy from Russia or something)
20% (our global fair share of losses through the straights)
45% (our fair share of internationally tradable oil through the straights)
70% (the percentage of oil going to Singapore & South Korea through the straights)
100% (Iran linked Houthi rebels close access to the south of the red sea, and the countries with remaining oil / refining capacity keep all the product for themselves).

Every one of those tiers requires a very different response, and the latter ones are almost unthinkable.

HarmLessSolutions

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#3471179 17-Mar-2026 17:38

Scott3:

.....

The big unknown is how much we will need to cut back fuel use is the war continues.

0% (buy from Russia or something)
20% (our global fair share of losses through the Straits)
45% (our fair share of internationally tradable oil through the Straits)
70% (the percentage of oil going to Singapore & South Korea through the Straits)
100% (Iran linked Houthi rebels close access to the south of the red sea, and the countries with remaining oil / refining capacity keep all the product for themselves).
Every one of those tiers requires a very different response, and the latter ones are almost unthinkable.

Straits of Hormuz

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SaltyNZ

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#3471186 17-Mar-2026 18:27

cddt:

I think the majority of NZ cannot afford new vehicles. The secondhand / used market for EVs is a lot thinner.

The scheme also provided rebates on second-hand EV imports albeit only $3500 rather than $8500. But we've lost that too.

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HelloThere

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#3471195 17-Mar-2026 19:37

richms:
I popped over to thames yesterday for a trademe pickup and saw so many people out with their classics. I figure that they think its probably the last time they can do it for a while so getting that in before winter and high prices for however long.

Most likely getting ready for Beach Hop next week.

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