2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3471200 17-Mar-2026 20:53

Sri Lanka - govt employees on four day week
Thailand - short sleeves to save on aircon
Myanmar - cars on alternate days
Philippines - govt employees wfh one day a week + subsidies for essential trades
Vietnam - stay at home if you can

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g5n58rlnzo

deepred

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#3471204 17-Mar-2026 21:18

gzt: Sri Lanka - govt employees on four day week
Thailand - short sleeves to save on aircon
Myanmar - cars on alternate days
Philippines - govt employees wfh one day a week + subsidies for essential trades
Vietnam - stay at home if you can

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g5n58rlnzo

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/589660/the-hormuz-buffer-asian-oil-security-amid-prolonged-middle-east-conflict

Brunei

Reserve duration: Net Exporter

Brunei occupies a very different position from most Southeast Asian economies.

The country remains a significant exporter of oil and natural gas, with production far exceeding its small domestic energy demand.

Hydrocarbons dominate the economy, accounting for the vast majority of export earnings and government revenue.

As a result, Brunei faces little immediate risk of fuel shortages, even during a prolonged disruption in Middle Eastern supply.

Instead, the country's main exposure lies in the volatility of global energy markets.

Higher prices could boost export revenues, but they also underscore Brunei's heavy economic dependence on oil and gas.

"I regret to say that we of the F.B.I. are powerless to act in cases of oral-genital intimacy, unless it has in some way obstructed interstate commerce." — J. Edgar Hoover

"Create a society that values material things above all else. Strip it of industry. Raise taxes for the poor and reduce them for the rich and for corporations. Prop up failed financial institutions with public money. Ask for more tax, while vastly reducing public services. Put adverts everywhere, regardless of people's ability to afford the things they advertise. Allow the cost of food and housing to eclipse people's ability to pay for them. Light blue touch paper." — Andrew Maxwell

fastbike

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#3471207 17-Mar-2026 21:43

Handle9:

I think the government is doing a relatively good job of preparing the country for restrictions without scaring the horses unnecessarily. There’s no point in over communicating possible options yet as it will just cause more panic buying.

Much like during Covid no one knows what’s coming next so preparing a range of options and communicating them when they become necessary helps minimise the damage. Also like Covid it’s about the least bad option, there are no good options

Haha, sitting on their hands and doing nothing to reduce fuel consumption, so as to make existing supplies last longer, counts as a relatively good job.

There will be a mad scramble in less than 2 weeks. You do realise the last oil tankers to transit the Strait arrived in Singapore last Friday. So that is being processed and once that is loaded supplies become very tight.

We are at the end of a very long and complex supply chain that maximises efficiency over resilience. We will see how that works soon as rationing starts. TBH I'm more concerned about diesel supplies as that keeps our economy ticking along.

If you want to see what a better rationing system could be like read the Wise Response proposal for TEQs.

Otautahi Christchurch

Scott3

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#3471208 17-Mar-2026 21:44

gzt: Sri Lanka - govt employees on four day week
Thailand - short sleeves to save on aircon
Myanmar - cars on alternate days
Philippines - govt employees wfh one day a week + subsidies for essential trades
Vietnam - stay at home if you can

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g5n58rlnzo

The full article is worth a read.

To Highlight some key points:

Myanmar - cars on alternate days (started March 7). i.e. Carless day, but 50% of days are carless!

Bangladesh: Planned blackouts across the nation

Sri Lanka: Motorists are also now required to register for a National Fuel Pass which rations the amount of fuel that people can buy:
Buses - 60 Litres
Motorcycles - 5 Litres
Motor cars - 15 Litres
Vans - 40 Litres
Motor Lorries - 200 Litres
Land Vehicles - 25 Litres
Three-Wheelers - 15 Litres
Special Purpose Vehicles [i.e. tourist rentals] - 40 Litres
Quadricycles - 5 Litres

I get some of these countries have economic issues, and Sri Lanka also rationed fuel in their 2022-2023 petrol crisis (due to deleted foreign reserves). But this is a bit of warning.

We have a longer supply chain, and hence a longer window to act, but this should be quite a heads up to us.

Fortunately we have near zero oil products in our power grid, so don't need to worry about rolling blackouts.

But think of those other potential restrictions:

i.e. alternate day vehicle use (with minimal private user exemptions, basically just EV's and motorbikes):

Odd-numbered dates: Vehicles with license plates ending in an odd number (1, 3, 5, 7, 9) are permitted to drive.
Even-numbered dates: Vehicles with license plates ending in an even number (0, 2, 4, 6, 8) are permitted to drive.

or a 15L / car per week fuel ration...

fastbike

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#3471209 17-Mar-2026 21:55

Scott3:

We still have 6+ weeks up our sleeves before any real supply crunch hits. Little value in rushing restrictions though now, when there is a chance the USA could kiss and make up (well at least stop bombing) Iran, and there be no shortages.

Might as well use that time to design a good rationing / restriction system, incl the policy backend, so it can be rolled out overnight, restricting the impact of a huge wave of panic buying (contrast with covid restrictions where announcements often came ahead of policy design).

Must I say it, I think it is probably good that those with a tendency to hoard get it out of their system now, while the local supply chain's are still solid. If such people already have a stack of jerry can's full at home, they are less likely to contribute to the drama when actual restrictions are announced.

The big unknown is how much we will need to cut back fuel use is the war continues.

0% (buy from Russia or something)
20% (our global fair share of losses through the straights)
45% (our fair share of internationally tradable oil through the straights)
70% (the percentage of oil going to Singapore & South Korea through the straights)
100% (Iran linked Houthi rebels close access to the south of the red sea, and the countries with remaining oil / refining capacity keep all the product for themselves).
Every one of those tiers requires a very different response, and the latter ones are almost unthinkable.

The reality is very different than what is being spun. We have about 3 weeks to hand. Then we have three weeks on tankers that can be turned around and diverted to markets that will pay more and are closer to Asia.

Even if a ceasefire was declared tomorrow, international insurance markets will want assurances that the STRAITS are safe for passage, so some delay. In the meantime, real damage has been done to production, storage and refining infrastructure which will not just switch back on. And some shut in fields will take months to restart production.

As to the numbers further up, it is the 40% of traded oil (i.e oil not consumed in producing nations) that transits the STRAITS that is important, not the 20% that the media keep mentioning.

There's also no mention of the real damage done to LNG, urea and sulfur, all vital for the modern interconnected economies to function.

This will make covid era economic disruption look mild. The damage is baked in and with Trump vs a regime fighting an existential battle things are not going to cool off any time soon.

So sweet dreams, but don't get caught snoozing.

Otautahi Christchurch

ANglEAUT

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#3471213 17-Mar-2026 22:38

fastbike:

Scott3:

We still have 6+ weeks up our sleeves before any real supply crunch hits. ...

The reality is very different than what is being spun. We have about 3 weeks to hand. ..

Thanks fastbike. Well said.

@ Scott3 If we start rationing no, we could potentially stretch out those 6 weeks to 12 or 18 weeks. Instead, if we start rationing in week 5 or 6, how far will that stretch?

Please keep this GZ community vibrant by contributing in a constructive & respectful manner.

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ezbee

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#3471215 17-Mar-2026 22:54

Simplest rationing would be to encourage increase in price till demand drops
assuring a longer supply buffer.
Market forces unleashed. Inflation will bite tho.

Government was against reducing the Govt tax.

I am not yet planning long trips for Easter, and ANZAC just in case. Hopefully it ends soon, but.

Batman

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#3471218 17-Mar-2026 23:39

SaltyNZ:

The scheme also provided rebates on second-hand EV imports albeit only $3500 rather than $8500. But we've lost that too.

prices of Nissan Leaf (before the oil price went up) are $4000-$5000 lower than when they had the $3500 rebate.

so no reason to blame the rebate ending for not buying a Nissan Leaf before

i think it's going to be more expensive now due to the oil prices

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#3471219 17-Mar-2026 23:45

Leafs were pretty expensive compared to others and I think they have come down due to all the cheap Chinese options which are often similar kinds of EVs. EVs have to drop in price anyway as the numbers increase. It is no different to any other tech, including LED lights, flatscreen TVs etc

gmball

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#3471221 18-Mar-2026 00:39

What puzzles me most about the potential need to ration fuel, I work for a company of 12,000 employees. The team I am in and the type of work we do is easily achieved via WFH. We worked entirely from home for 2 years during the covid pandemic.

Our company has mandated 4 days in the office, 1 day WFH. Imagine the impact if companies of this scale with employees who were able to WFH during this period, actually did WFH, surely that would have a meaningful impact on extending current fuel reserves. I am certain the company I work for is not alone in mandating a return to the office.

I know for certain that employees are asking why they cant WFH during this period, as no doubt the hit to the pocket is also a consideration, its not like companies are suddenly increasing salaries to cover increased commuting costs.

Scott3

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#3471222 18-Mar-2026 02:19

The bit I have trouble reconciling is the Oil price. We are still at less than we were (in nominal terms) in 2022. Means the market is picking some kind of quick fix to this situation. But I don't see significant evidence to support that stance.

fastbike:

Scott3:

We still have 6+ weeks up our sleeves before any real supply crunch hits. Little value in rushing restrictions though now, when there is a chance the USA could kiss and make up (well at least stop bombing) Iran, and there be no shortages.

Might as well use that time to design a good rationing / restriction system, incl the policy backend, so it can be rolled out overnight, restricting the impact of a huge wave of panic buying (contrast with covid restrictions where announcements often came ahead of policy design).

Must I say it, I think it is probably good that those with a tendency to hoard get it out of their system now, while the local supply chain's are still solid. If such people already have a stack of jerry can's full at home, they are less likely to contribute to the drama when actual restrictions are announced.

The big unknown is how much we will need to cut back fuel use is the war continues.

0% (buy from Russia or something)
20% (our global fair share of losses through the straights)
45% (our fair share of internationally tradable oil through the straights)
70% (the percentage of oil going to Singapore & South Korea through the straights)
100% (Iran linked Houthi rebels close access to the south of the red sea, and the countries with remaining oil / refining capacity keep all the product for themselves).
Every one of those tiers requires a very different response, and the latter ones are almost unthinkable.

The reality is very different than what is being spun. We have about 3 weeks to hand. Then we have three weeks on tankers that can be turned around and diverted to markets that will pay more and are closer to Asia.

Even if a ceasefire was declared tomorrow, international insurance markets will want assurances that the STRAITS are safe for passage, so some delay. In the meantime, real damage has been done to production, storage and refining infrastructure which will not just switch back on. And some shut in fields will take months to restart production.

As to the numbers further up, it is the 40% of traded oil (i.e oil not consumed in producing nations) that transits the STRAITS that is important, not the 20% that the media keep mentioning.

There's also no mention of the real damage done to LNG, urea and sulfur, all vital for the modern interconnected economies to function.

This will make covid era economic disruption look mild. The damage is baked in and with Trump vs a regime fighting an existential battle things are not going to cool off any time soon.

So sweet dreams, but don't get caught snoozing.

Consensus seems to be that once the ships depart, it is highly probable ships that leave the refineries will make it here.

My take is that an immediate re-opening of the Straits would substantially solve the issue. We could run down our buffer a bit, and let it refill over time, without the need to curtail demand.

On LNG, thankfully NZ has zero exposure to that market (and Aus is a net exporter).

Fertiliser is going to be a huge drama. But given the public is only indirectly exposed, it will get less media attention.

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Scott3

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#3471223 18-Mar-2026 02:30

ANglEAUT:

Thanks fastbike. Well said.

@ Scott3 If we start rationing no, we could potentially stretch out those 6 weeks to 12 or 18 weeks. Instead, if we start rationing in week 5 or 6, how far will that stretch?

Really depends on how much our imports drop by.

If we take a pure reactive stance, running down our stocks before cutting demand there will be no "stretching". If oil imports drop by 45%, we will need to drop our consumption by 45%.... If imports dry up completely, we will need to eliminate our consumption completely (Hopefully there are enough dregs left to run fire trucks and the likes, Guess the government would need to commandeer the bulk of private EV's to allocate to critical stuff)

On stretching 6 weeks of fuel to 12 or 18 weeks, you are talking about slashing 50 or 67% from our consumption. This would be epic, the economy & personal lifestyle would be extremely hit. I don't think there is appetite for that until refinery output actually starts to slow down.

Draconian measure require a dire situation to justify.

Handle9

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#3471225 18-Mar-2026 04:32

Scott3:

Draconian measure require a dire situation to justify.

Yup and the fact is nobody knows how this plays out. The chances of supply dropping from 100% to zero is relatively remote.

To run around now like chicken little will completely destroy the social licence to take action if things get really bad. It’s better to take a more gradual, fact based approach rather than guess what will happen.

Let pricing reduce demand to the extent it can and while that happens formulate a plan that can be explained to the public. Then if you need to explain step by step what the implications of what you are doing and why.

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#3471227 18-Mar-2026 06:14

I'm pretty horrified by the casual statements about letting price rises be the solution as we work our way through this mess

The social and economic carnage will do irreparable damage.

Some examples:

low paid care workers on min wage get a flat allowance for fuel so see their real wage drop, leave the workforce so old/vulnerable people wear that
Farmers who are already under pressure from commodities market see cost of key inputs rise
Industry faces higher transport costs, raises prices, spurring inflation, leading to int rate rises
Ambulance services already under pressure face spiraling cots
Rural folk without alternatives and longer journeys
Etc

Meanwhile people with assets/cash are still out jet skiing, jetting off on holiday, driving big cars for discretionary journeys.

Market signals ignore the value that different uses of fuel provide to society. They also ignore the fact that like food, shelter etc, humans need a basic level of eenergy.

So what to do given our baked in dependence?

In the short term introduce Tradable Energy Quotas. These provide a basic allowance which can be traded, so people who need more fuel can be catered for. Wise Response have a great paper explaining how this provides a natural damper to high prices.

In the longer term, work to electrify transport and industry. Had previous policies been continued and extended, and the electricity market reformed (consolidation generation under an NZED type model, with competition at retail level ) we would not be in this bind. We also would not be talking about hooking ourself to LNG, linking our power prices to this turmoil

And much of the deindustrialisation we've seen since 2024 would have been avoided.

We do have choices, we should demand leadership. Sitting on our hands and saying let prices do the rationing is not an acceptable solution.

Otautahi Christchurch

alasta

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#3471247 18-Mar-2026 09:16

gmball:

What puzzles me most about the potential need to ration fuel, I work for a company of 12,000 employees. The team I am in and the type of work we do is easily achieved via WFH. We worked entirely from home for 2 years during the covid pandemic.

Our company has mandated 4 days in the office, 1 day WFH. Imagine the impact if companies of this scale with employees who were able to WFH during this period, actually did WFH, surely that would have a meaningful impact on extending current fuel reserves. I am certain the company I work for is not alone in mandating a return to the office.

I know for certain that employees are asking why they cant WFH during this period, as no doubt the hit to the pocket is also a consideration, its not like companies are suddenly increasing salaries to cover increased commuting costs.

WFH will only be effective if you would otherwise have been commuting with a petrol/diesel powered vehicle. I mostly take public transport to work, so maybe there might be an opportunity for regional councils to run reduced services by removing diesel buses from the fleet if there is a reduction in commuting.

In any case I hope that people won't be socially pressured to WFH if it doesn't suit their situation. For me WFH is undesirable as my crappy old work laptop is really hard to use when it's not connected to the facilities in the office, and I can easily run to work which takes about the same amount of time as the bus for the 7.5km commute.

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