Scotland sets 2032 ban for the sale of new diesel and petrol cars: Should NZ do the same?

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › Scotland sets 2032 ban for the sale of new diesel and petrol cars: Should NZ do the same?

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#1859741 6-Sep-2017 14:35

Let's talk about bans when there is suitable and affordable technology to replace even compact petrol cars in all use cases. That isn't yet the case.

Currently small to medium EVs that would suit most households cost more (to buy) and have less capability than equivalent ICEVs. Once you get into higher end cars like Tesla S, I actually think EVs are better value, but fewer people can afford them.

Organisations' fleets seem a better case for early uptake, depreciation or finance costs are tax deductible and there are a lot of short trip use cases - council's DHBs etc. They would respond rapidly to incentives.

You also need to be really sure the supply will be there. Supply of new EVs to the NZ market has been patchy at best.

Mike

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#1859757 6-Sep-2017 14:58

Around 2200 ev in December last year 4100 last month do the number has nearly doubled since then. (in less than one year) This doesn't include the nzpost delivery buggies.

A.

MikeAqua

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#1859790 6-Sep-2017 16:14

afe66: Around 2200 ev in December last year 4100 last month do the number has nearly doubled since then. (in less than one year) This doesn't include the nzpost delivery buggies.

A.

We need some definition in this discussion. Are we talking about pure EVs (battery only) or hybrids. A ban on petrol/diesel vehicles should presumably apply to new hybrids as well?

A different way to view banning of petrol/diesel vehicle is not when but where ...

So for example they could be banned from large areas of the CBD in major cities. I.e. pure EVs only on some roads. Reduce pollution and carbon wasted by cars sitting in traffic.

Just a thought.

Mike

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#1859805 6-Sep-2017 16:34

MikeAqua:

Let's talk about bans when there is suitable and affordable technology to replace even compact petrol cars in all use cases.

This is a kind of chicken-and-egg situation. If you were a car manufacturer, you would need to be assured of sales before investing a lot of money in EV design and manufacture. This talk of bans way out in the future gives the car manufacturers the assurance that an EV market will exist, and that therefore it's worth investing in the idea.

It's not absolutely necessary to cover *all* use cases. If you have some scenario where you absolutely need a petrol car, you'll be able to continue owning and driving your existing car for a very long time, whilst 99.97% of the population can drive EVs. Or buy an EV, and keep your petrol car for those special occasions; it could then last for a 100 years.

cddt

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#1859875 6-Sep-2017 18:16

Sidestep:

Like kryptonjohn I'd prefer to see subsidies and tax credits for low emission light vehicles, rather than punitive measures against others.

Carrots rather than sticks

Why not just a straight carbon tax? Saves all the fluffing around with subsidies, credits, etc. and means that the amount you pay is proportional to your emissions. It will also flow through the economy so high emission companies will have to charge higher prices to consumers, while low emission companies can pass the savings on. It's the perfect market signal. Can also be increased with time.

Dingbatt

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#1859878 6-Sep-2017 18:36

Where's all the extra electricity going to come from? Can't build dams, can't burn coal, geothermal is tapped out, wind is too unreliable, tidal kills fish and nuclear is just too expensive, difficult and dirty. And an inadequate distribution system just makes things worse.
Since NZ has no domestic car manufacturing, the way ICE cars will be phased out here is they just won't be available to import new because no one will be building them.

Edit: Forgot about solar, but that is unreliable and low value as well.
Maybe this thread would be better in the politics forum the way it's headed.

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Sidestep

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#1859879 6-Sep-2017 18:38

cddt:

Why not just a straight carbon tax? Saves all the fluffing around with subsidies, credits, etc. and means that the amount you pay is proportional to your emissions. It will also flow through the economy so high emission companies will have to charge higher prices to consumers, while low emission companies can pass the savings on. It's the perfect market signal. Can also be increased with time.

Our proposed Carbon tax was abandoned back in 2005 in favour of an Emissions Trading Scheme.

It basically gives all the greenhouse gases a valuation and allows trading.

A number of our most important industries – like Forestry and Agriculture - which are already trading in the scheme would be stuffed up if we reverted to a straight Carbon Tax.

JimmyH

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#1859883 6-Sep-2017 18:51

We are a small market without a motor vehicle industry (or the economies of scale to make one economically feasible), and essentially purchase what is being produced for other markets at the going rate. So unlike say the US, Europe or UK a NZ ban isn't likely to spur manufacturers to change what they produce to meet our demand.

Firstly, we need to make sure that we have the charging infrastructure pretty much universally in place (which is a particular issue for our low density country with some remote areas and rural vehicle users).

Secondly, we need to sort a sufficient electricity supply - if the marginal unit of electricity comes from coal then the marginal EV is likely to make carbon emissions change worse, not better.

Thirdly, a ban is only sensible if the EV alternatives are practical and economically feasible for pretty much all users. For cars this will probably be in a decade or two. But it may take longer for specialised vehicles - trucks, tractors, combine harvesters etc.

So I think it is premature for serious consideration of a ban. Plus, I'm not that keen on having my pockets picked (taxes) to bribe others to do something that doesn't make economic sense on its own merits. If there are externalities associated with petrol//diesel then the correct response is to tax them at a level that reflects this, not subsidise other things.

Inphinity

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#1859894 6-Sep-2017 19:11

I would happily go and replace our vehicles with EVs tomorrow, if I could. On current availability of EVs, like-for-like, I would be looking to spend somewhere north of $240k, which is just not in budget and is 3 times the ICE-replacement cost. There are currently only readily-available options for those looking for a supermini or small hatch, or those who do not have budget considerations, as far as I have been able to find at least.

Kiwifruta

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#1859934 6-Sep-2017 19:40

Sidestep:
frednz:

In other words, is NZ just too casual in its approach to promoting the uptake of electric vehicles?

I think this is the Key.

NZ IS too casual in its approach to promoting the uptake of electric vehicles..

Like kryptonjohn I'd prefer to see subsidies and tax credits for low emission light vehicles, rather than punitive measures against others.

Carrots rather than sticks

E.V. owners get subsidised use of the roads as they aren't paying 93 cents per litre of petrol in taxes or any road user charges.

Sidestep

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#1859942 6-Sep-2017 20:07

Kiwifruta:

E.V. owners get subsidised use of the roads as they aren't paying 93 cents per litre of petrol in taxes or any road user charges.

From the Ministry of Transport's website:

"Why is the light electric vehicle exemption being extended to 2020?
Uptake of light electric motor vehicles is slower than was projected in 2009 due to a range of factors such as the price of light electric motor vehicles not coming down as quickly as anticipated in 2009.
The risk to RUC revenue streams is therefore considered much smaller than was projected in 2009."

In other words the EV exemption hasn't ended yet, but will: if the cost of EV's comes down, or we buy a lot of them.
Once numbers reach a certain threshold (and they affect the tax take) it will likely end for all EV users.

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#1859946 6-Sep-2017 20:32

Some things to consider.

One the Scottish statement is most likely political grandstanding.

The decision on EV's will be made for New Zealand. IF/When the major car consuming nations decide to ban ICE we will have no choice but to use EV's.

Our car consumption is so small we have no influence what so ever on what the manufacturers make.

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#1859954 6-Sep-2017 20:47

Dingbatt: Where's all the extra electricity going to come from? Can't build dams, can't burn coal, geothermal is tapped out, wind is too unreliable, tidal kills fish and nuclear is just too expensive, difficult and dirty. And an inadequate distribution system just makes things worse.
Since NZ has no domestic car manufacturing, the way ICE cars will be phased out here is they just won't be available to import new because no one will be building them.

Edit: Forgot about solar, but that is unreliable and low value as well.
Maybe this thread would be better in the politics forum the way it's headed.

When power is down, I will drive around the streets in my boy racer car because the cops won't be around to bother, and no other cars on the road either.

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#1860064 7-Sep-2017 06:28

Has anyone thought the consequences of a ban through fully?

This leaves the poor with either no transport or dirty old petrol/ diesel transport as an only option, then we compound it by stopping what will likely be more efficient and cleaner ICE cars coming in and filtering down.

EV is the way forward but a ban on NEW cars only means people keep old cars longer which are way worse for the environment.

We need EV's to stand on their own 2 feet in their own right!

MikeB4

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#1860067 7-Sep-2017 06:48

dickytim:
Has anyone thought the consequences of a ban through fully?

This leaves the poor with either no transport or dirty old petrol/ diesel transport as an only option, then we compound it by stopping what will likely be more efficient and cleaner ICE cars coming in and filtering down.

EV is the way forward but a ban on NEW cars only means people keep old cars longer which are way worse for the environment.

We need EV's to stand on their own 2 feet in their own right!

By circa 2030 the market will have changed considerably. Manufacturing will have ramped up, there will be more used EVs and prices will have dropped considerably.

EV not only will stand on their own two feet and they have to, it is not optional it's vital for our future.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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