EVs seem like swapping one problem for another 🤔

Journeyman:

 

EVs seem like swapping one problem for another 🤔

 

What problem are they swapping for?

Obraik:

 

Journeyman:

 

EVs seem like swapping one problem for another 🤔

 

 

What problem are they swapping for?

 

For starters, we are not ready for the required increase in electricity demand (we are apparently importing Indonesian coal at the moment)

It was only a fortnight ago that we were told that we were within seconds of having uncontrolled power outages, and Transpower has warned we are already under-resourced for power. 

Unless Electric cars require a solar power source to charge, we have some work to do before everyone could have an Electric Car. 

Lets run some numbers, using the data from the last 24 hours (Power System Live Data | Transpower)

Peak power demand for all of NZ is about 6.7 GW. at 6:30pm. Low demand is 3.9 GW at about 4am.

So there's 2.8 GW of spare capacity in the system.

If everyone is at home using a 16A charger (4 kW each) then we've got capacity for 700,000 EVs to charge simultaneously.

Obviously there's a bunch of hand waving here, but the situation is a long way from dire.

We also know that at grid scale, it's also preferential to charge EVs from coal than to run them on petrol/diesel (by a smaller margin than with other fuels). There's a ton of research on that.

mkissin:

 

Lets run some numbers, using the data from the last 24 hours (Power System Live Data | Transpower)

 

Peak power demand for all of NZ is about 6.7 GW. at 6:30pm. Low demand is 3.9 GW at about 4am.

 

So there's 2.8 GW of spare capacity in the system.

 

If everyone is at home using a 16A charger (4 kW each) then we've got capacity for 700,000 EVs to charge simultaneously.

 

Obviously there's a bunch of hand waving here, but the situation is a long way from dire.

 

We also know that at grid scale, it's also preferential to charge EVs from coal than to run them on petrol/diesel (by a smaller margin than with other fuels). There's a ton of research on that.

 

I guess transpower are making it all up for some strange reason?

Just because THIS 24 hour period would have coped, doesn't mean it's a good idea all year around. 

If more EV would push us into rolling blackouts at all, then we need more capacity.

this suggests it's in the interest of power companies' commercial interest to keep power supply short to keep price high.

where does the govt investigation (2yrs ago) fit in all this

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/129062866/get-used-to-higher-risk-of-power-cuts

mkissin:

 

Lets run some numbers, using the data from the last 24 hours (Power System Live Data | Transpower)

 

Peak power demand for all of NZ is about 6.7 GW. at 6:30pm. Low demand is 3.9 GW at about 4am.

 

So there's 2.8 GW of spare capacity in the system.

 

That assumed "spare capacity" is only true all year if there is unlimited fuel...

BUT around 1/2 of NZ's generation is Hydro and there is only about 6 weeks of storage, so a big chunk of that capacity only exits if there is the appropriate hydro inflows to balance it..

If you increase demand you'll run down any storage faster and end up with a situation of no generation, 

That's why T/power and others talk about the NZ grid as a big seasonal  balancing act, where you run hydro generation based on assumed inflows and other generation.....

Batman:

this suggests it's in the interest of power companies' commercial interest to keep power supply short to keep price high.

where does the govt investigation (2yrs ago) fit in all this

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/129062866/get-used-to-higher-risk-of-power-cuts

 

decibel:

 

For starters, we are not ready for the required increase in electricity demand (we are apparently importing Indonesian coal at the moment)

 

Do you expect that everyone will swap to an EV overnight? Do you expect that as more people switch to EVs that we won't expand the grid capacity? Are you aware of the many power stations already consented and waiting to be required?

Can't wait for the customary John Cadogan special :)

Obraik:

 

decibel:

 

For starters, we are not ready for the required increase in electricity demand (we are apparently importing Indonesian coal at the moment)

 

 

Do you expect that everyone will swap to an EV overnight? Do you expect that as more people switch to EVs that we won't expand the grid capacity? Are you aware of the many power stations already consented and waiting to be required?

 

This is exactly why the Government should NOT be trying to speed everything up - we should be letting nature take its course; just the same as when we changed from steam cars to petrol cars.

mkissin:

 

Lets run some numbers, using the data from the last 24 hours (Power System Live Data | Transpower)

 

Peak power demand for all of NZ is about 6.7 GW. at 6:30pm. Low demand is 3.9 GW at about 4am.

 

So there's 2.8 GW of spare capacity in the system.

 

not really, timing matters a lot.

6:30 is when a lot of cars would be charging. so it adds to the peak demand.

they could do smart charging and delay the charging until after the peak, but then you run into issues like people will need fast chargers, extending the peak power demand and also possibility of customers not getting their cars charged up in time. keep in mind people may not be able to have fast chargers installed.

there is not just supply issue but also network issues, especially local network and home connection. however the amount of people that will buy the rather expensive ev's is not a lot, so there is time to add to the network. 

decibel:

 

This is exactly why the Government should NOT be trying to speed everything up - we should be letting nature take its course; just the same as when we changed from steam cars to petrol cars.

 

Why? As has already been mentioned, we have an excess of power generation currently. As per that list I linked you, that is before the currently under construction power stations are even completed.

Obraik:

 

decibel:

 

This is exactly why the Government should NOT be trying to speed everything up - we should be letting nature take its course; just the same as when we changed from steam cars to petrol cars.

 

 

Why? As has already been mentioned, we have an excess of power generation currently. As per that list I linked you, that is before the currently under construction power stations are even completed.

 

As was already explained above, currently does not equal always. 

It's very likely power stations will end up taking longer to build than projected.