2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3471547 18-Mar-2026 18:28

sen8or:

I think its easier for people to rationalise saving money on fuel (immediate impact on their wallet) vs the long term thinking of the climate crisis, where at an individual level it makes 1/5500000 of 0.17% of Global CO2 emissions difference....

I mean it's not like we greenies haven't been harping on about that aspect of it forever either... Our Leaf paid for itself in savings vs. petrol over its life.

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#3471549 18-Mar-2026 18:36

MikeAqua:

freitasm:

At some point, something needs to be said about a government that thinks investing in gas is sensible, and that removing EV subsidies and avoiding EV charger investments are good things.

Almost like they didn't have a vision for the future.

If the subsidies for people buying EVs had stayed in place, they wouldn't have had time to make a material difference to the light vehicle fleet*. Assume we'd have about three times the number of light EVs we do now. That would be ~270k vehicles which is 6% of the light vehicle fleet. Trivial.

Further ... most of the light vehicles EVs replace would have used petrol which is largely unimportant for production of and distribution of food. Diesel is by far the majority fuel within NZ for farming, transport and even energy production (boilers, dryers etc). We could limp along OK without petrol. Without diesel we are royally screwed.

Personally, I've recently replaced my daily car-commute with Shank's pony, which burns neither electricity nor petroleum.

(*) Using Norway as an example, I saw stats on LinkedIn yesterday that suggested 3/10 kms driven by cars in Norway are driven by EVs. That's after decades of highly punitive taxes on ICEVs. It takes a long time to shift the dial on vehicle use, via new vehicle purchases.

Gas ... I'm not sure we should invest in gas terminal. I can see the logic but it's a high risk, band-aid solution. I can only see one argument in favour which is using gas for additional power generation instead of coal (gas averages about half the GHG emissions of coal)

I'd rather see subsidies for large scale solar/wind, more hydro and more geo (with gas reinjection). The govt recently subsidised a 12MW solar farm near Blenheim, close to an industrial park. That seems a much better way of doing things than subsidising wealthy people to put a few kW at a time of solar panels on their roofs. Retail subsidies risk driving prices up (of solar panels, insulation etc).

Nobody is suggesting that the clean car scheme would have saved NZ from this particular issue. It would have made a difference to a bunch of families, yes. but in the national scheme of things no. But it's just that that is highly illustrative of the pattern of behaviour of this government. Literally every thing the previous governments - including the previous National government - did to start moving away from fossil fuel dependence and reducing our carbon emissions has been cancelled. Everything. And not just cancelled, but doubled down on even more fossil fuel dependence. Despite mountains of evidence that it was f***ing stupid.

I got home this afternoon with the Tesla on 84km range remaining. I had to unplug the (fully charged) MG in order to plug it in. I am too old, tired, and p***ed off to get any satisfaction out of driving past a petrol station with ridiculous prices on the board and plug my car into the charger. It's just ... it didn't have to be this way. We could now be commiserating that, hey, it sucks, but at least we know we're doing everything we possibly can to make sure we're as insulated as possible. But no. Even now, as we watch the future predicted consequences of a new LNG terminal play out in real-time before they even sign the contract, they are STILL COMMITTED to doing it.

I just can't deal with this. It's so, SO DUMB.

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kangaroo13

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#3471553 18-Mar-2026 18:41

HarmLessSolutions:

SaltyNZ:

And yet we think V2G is going to be the next hot thing...

V2G is no more reliant on third part control than any home battery and those seem to have become very popular. V2G/V2H is just the ability to use the battery in your EV to greater advantage.

I think V2H will be the sweet spot. Coupled with a modest fixed battery that meets most of a household's needs, the V2H provides that extra buffer for a few rubbish days in the middle of winter. No need to give the utility carte-blanc to use your battery, nor put excessive cycles into it. Also - encouraging profiteering by enabling the more wealthy to arbitrage on electricity prices with their 60+kWh car battery, I'd argue is not the best outcome (a possible unintended consequence of poorly implemented V2G).

Rikkitic

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#3471555 18-Mar-2026 18:45

I saw an item on ABC about people in Australia not doing road trips because of fears they can't refuel in the Outback. That gave me an idea so I asked Perplexity AI if it was feasible to stay on the road forever with an electric 4WD and foldable solar panels that could be laid out on the ground to recharge the batteries during camping stops. According to Perplexity, this isn't a completely crazy idea. With 20 or so panels and lots of time it would not be too challenging to do an endless low-cost trip around the country. I am not an engineer so can't vouch for this but it seems feasible to me.

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#3471556 18-Mar-2026 18:49

Rikkitic:

I saw an item on ABC about people in Australia not doing road trips because of fears they can't refuel in the Outback. That gave me an idea so I asked Perplexity AI if it was feasible to stay on the road forever with an electric 4WD and foldable solar panels that could be laid out on the ground to recharge the batteries during camping stops. According to Perplexity, this isn't a completely crazy idea. With 20 or so panels and lots of time it would not be too challenging to do an endless low-cost trip around the country. I am not an engineer so can't vouch for this but it seems feasible to me.

20 solar panels is gonna really eat up your storage space.

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kangaroo13

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#3471558 18-Mar-2026 18:53

mattwnz:

Getting panels installed in NZ seem expensive compared to what they pay in the US. I guess more adoption in nz will help bring down prices but guessing that margins at the moment are quite healthy

I'm not sure where you get that idea. Solar in (most places) in the USA is a lot more expensive than elsewhere due to higher regulation (yes - in the "land of the free"). This particularly relates to limits on DC voltages on the roof and the need to isolate (e.g. for first responder safety). This is one reason microinverters (e.g. Enphase) is so popular in USA, whereas here it is considered a premium/expensive option.

The stark contrast is Australia, where solar is a lot cheaper than here, due to subsidies and the larger market over there.

That said - things are changing quite quickly in NZ. When we first looked at solar about 2 years ago, payback was ~10yrs, and so we left it. By mid last year, estimated payback had dropped to just over 7hrs, and we bit the bullet. We are tracking ahead of predictions - probably 6.5-7yrs payback now. The difference is a combination of falling prices, improved product (460W panels for slightly lower cost than 420W a few years ago, better inveters, etc.), and on the other side of the ledger, increased electricity prices. For the moment, there are quite generous feed in tarrifs available in NZ (e.g. 17c/kWh) - this is an advantage we have over the Aussies where FiT rates have dropped.

By my calculation, batteries still don't "make sense" from a RoI investment, but may well do so after a few more years of price drops, technology improvement and balooning electricity prices.

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#3471559 18-Mar-2026 18:55

Rikkitic:

I saw an item on ABC about people in Australia not doing road trips because of fears they can't refuel in the Outback. That gave me an idea so I asked Perplexity AI if it was feasible to stay on the road forever with an electric 4WD and foldable solar panels that could be laid out on the ground to recharge the batteries during camping stops. According to Perplexity, this isn't a completely crazy idea. With 20 or so panels and lots of time it would not be too challenging to do an endless low-cost trip around the country. I am not an engineer so can't vouch for this but it seems feasible to me.

Possible, yes. Practical, not really. Therein lies the problem.

wsnz

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#3471560 18-Mar-2026 19:02

kangaroo13:

For the moment, there are quite generous feed in tarrifs available in NZ (e.g. 17c/kWh) - this is an advantage we have over the Aussies where FiT rates have dropped.

Yes, ours are generous at the moment, Australian FIT rates have been steadily decreasing and can now turn negative during periods of solar power oversupply. For our solar install, we're sizing the system for self-consumption and basing the payback period on no return from FIT's. AFIC it's a bonus to get anything back from the electricity retailer.

kangaroo13

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#3471561 18-Mar-2026 19:02

SaltyNZ:

Rikkitic:

I saw an item on ABC about people in Australia not doing road trips because of fears they can't refuel in the Outback. That gave me an idea so I asked Perplexity AI if it was feasible to stay on the road forever with an electric 4WD and foldable solar panels that could be laid out on the ground to recharge the batteries during camping stops. According to Perplexity, this isn't a completely crazy idea. With 20 or so panels and lots of time it would not be too challenging to do an endless low-cost trip around the country. I am not an engineer so can't vouch for this but it seems feasible to me.

20 solar panels is gonna really eat up your storage space.

20 panels is a LOT! More than most home installations.

Some back-of-the-envelope calculations:

Solar flux in bright sunny conditions and good orientation: 1000W/m^2
Panel efficiency < ~25%
Car efficiency: ~15kWh/100km (optimistic)

That means for each panel 2m^2, in good sunlight, you collect up to 0.5kWh per hour.

Or enough to drive about 3km.

Scale by hours and number of panels to work out how many panels you need, or how far you can travel in a day.

It would be a very leisurely paced trip ...

SaltyNZ

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#3471562 18-Mar-2026 19:05

kangaroo13:

SaltyNZ:

Rikkitic:

I saw an item on ABC about people in Australia not doing road trips because of fears they can't refuel in the Outback. That gave me an idea so I asked Perplexity AI if it was feasible to stay on the road forever with an electric 4WD and foldable solar panels that could be laid out on the ground to recharge the batteries during camping stops. According to Perplexity, this isn't a completely crazy idea. With 20 or so panels and lots of time it would not be too challenging to do an endless low-cost trip around the country. I am not an engineer so can't vouch for this but it seems feasible to me.

20 solar panels is gonna really eat up your storage space.

20 panels is a LOT! More than most home installations.

Some back-of-the-envelope calculations:

Solar flux in bright sunny conditions and good orientation: 1000W/m^2
Panel efficiency < ~25%
Car efficiency: ~15kWh/100km (optimistic)
That means for each panel 2m^2, in good sunlight, you collect up to 0.5kWh per hour.

Or enough to drive about 3km.

Scale by hours and number of panels to work out how many panels you need, or how far you can travel in a day.

It would be a very leisurely paced trip ...

According to Andy Weir you can do it even on Mars with about half an hour setup time. Easy.

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Rikkitic

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#3471564 18-Mar-2026 19:22

kangaroo13:

It would be a very leisurely paced trip ...

It was just an idea that popped into my head and I didn't do any calculations but it doesn't seem so crazy on the face of it. I did the obligatory road trip around Oz when I was (much) younger. Transport then was a Hi-Ace with extended wheelbase and an LPG tank under the seat which nearly doubled the petrol range. Imagine a modern 4WD electric truck towing a caravan or trailer. There would be plenty of space to stack foldable panels. On our trip we would regularly stop and linger for a few days at random locations that appealed. If you are on holiday and not meeting a schedule there ought to be plenty of time to fully charge, assuming the sun doesn't let you down. Just unpack the panels, spread them out on the ground or light frames, plug them in and go fishing. Sounds like a great holiday to me!

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#3471566 18-Mar-2026 19:23

Rikkitic:

kangaroo13:

It would be a very leisurely paced trip ...

It was just an idea that popped into my head and I didn't do any calculations but it doesn't seem so crazy on the face of it. I did the obligatory road trip around Oz when I was (much) younger. Transport then was a Hi-Ace with extended wheelbase and an LPG tank under the seat which nearly doubled the petrol range. Imagine a modern 4WD electric truck towing a caravan or trailer. There would be plenty of space to stack foldable panels. On our trip we would regularly stop and linger for a few days at random locations that appealed. If you are on holiday and not meeting a schedule there ought to be plenty of time to fully charge, assuming the sun doesn't let you down. Just unpack the panels, spread them out on the ground or light frames, plug them in and go fishing. Sounds like a great holiday to me!

Oh, no, it's a cool idea!

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HarmLessSolutions

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#3471568 18-Mar-2026 20:45

wsnz:

kangaroo13:

For the moment, there are quite generous feed in tarrifs available in NZ (e.g. 17c/kWh) - this is an advantage we have over the Aussies where FiT rates have dropped.

Yes, ours are generous at the moment, Australian FIT rates have been steadily decreasing and can now turn negative during periods of solar power oversupply. For our solar install, we're sizing the system for self-consumption and basing the payback period on no return from FIT's. AFIC it's a bonus to get anything back from the electricity retailer.

Big differences between Aussie and here. They obviously have heaps more domestic solar capacity but they also have coal fired baseload which cannot be turned on and off as readily as opening and closing a penstock on our hydro. In order to prevent overload of their grid they have little choice but to deny export of distributed solar generation.

NZ is particularly well suited to solar uptake as, if it was done wisely, it could be buffered by hydro generation far more easily than for the Australian model with the unused hydro retained for later use in essence treating our hydro dams as huge grid scale batteries. It is frustrating to see this opportunity being ignored and lost.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

kangaroo13

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#3471570 18-Mar-2026 21:06

HarmLessSolutions:

NZ is particularly well suited to solar uptake as, if it was done wisely, it could be buffered by hydro generation far more easily than for the Australian model with the unused hydro retained for later use in essence treating our hydro dams as huge grid scale batteries. It is frustrating to see this opportunity being ignored and lost.

Absolutely! Conserving hydro so it is available overnight and in dry spells, with some pumped hydro (perhaps small scale, augmenting current reservoirs). NZ has such an opportunity here. We don't need massive grid-scale batteries. Nor grand pumped-hydro schemes to flood entire new valleys.

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#3471571 18-Mar-2026 21:08

Rikkitic:

I saw an item on ABC about people in Australia not doing road trips because of fears they can't refuel in the Outback. That gave me an idea so I asked Perplexity AI if it was feasible to stay on the road forever with an electric 4WD and foldable solar panels that could be laid out on the ground to recharge the batteries during camping stops. According to Perplexity, this isn't a completely crazy idea. With 20 or so panels and lots of time it would not be too challenging to do an endless low-cost trip around the country. I am not an engineer so can't vouch for this but it seems feasible to me.

I watched a video a couple of years back on a military set-up where large solar arrays were rolled out. A bit too bulky for domestic use but great idea in combat situations as no noise or heat signature that a generator has.

(Short version)

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

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