2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3471961 20-Mar-2026 12:19

Aussie headlines have got dramatically more alarmist.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/the-economy-stops-experts-chilling-fuel-prediction-as-australias-low-reserves-exposed/news-story/455d1110487f73a10b3b424151d3b2fb

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/18/australia-fuel-crisis-farmers-rural-regional-diesel-prices-supplies-availability

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/eighty-nsw-petrol-stations-without-diesel-as-price-passes-3-a-litre-20260319-p5qig4.html

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/a-fuel-crisis-for-everyone-but-albanese-20260319-p5qjg4

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/18/australia-fuel-crisis-farmers-rural-regional-diesel-prices-supplies-availability

Of note this graph:

But I don't think NZ is in much of a better position than Aussie. While we are in compliance with the IEA 90 days, most of that oil is held offshore. The IEA releases just dump the oil onto the open market, so Austrailia can effectively freeload on others IEA holdings.

wellygary

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#3471962 20-Mar-2026 12:20

ezbee:

Why not 'advise' companies to help their staff carpool, look at public transport ideas, and work from home. A collective community effort to make sure fuel especially diesel is available for industry.

But, using Less '91 makes little difference to the stocks of Diesel, which are what industry and agriculture burn through ....

gzt

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#3471963 20-Mar-2026 12:23

wellygary: But, using Less '91 makes little difference to the stocks of Diesel, which are what industry and agriculture burn through ....

A non-zero percentage of the personal transport fleet is diesel. Far higher than 30 years ago. It will make some small difference.

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#3471969 20-Mar-2026 12:38

Just drove past a BP station where Diesel is $299.9, I'm sure it's never been that high before. All the freight firms I'm feeling for!

Scott3

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#3471975 20-Mar-2026 12:57

My take is the government is taking a similar approach to what the government did at the start of the covid-19 pandemic. Wait until the public and media are absolutely screaming at them to take action, so when they do, the public reaction is "took you long enough", rather anger at their action.

From covid-19, we know the public has is quite willing to endure quite substantial restrictions in the short term, but the appetite wears thin as time drags one. Delaying the start of any impact means we are not chewing into public good will yet.

Also, like the covid-19 response, there would be nice to jump to the most harsh response right off the bat, and then taper down the response over time. Vs starting off gentle and then conditions getting harsher and harsher.

I think nothing, then Bam, fuel rationing (potentially zero for private diesel use), ban on recreational boating (with 16+ hp engines), mandatory work from home when able, all rolled out in a few hours would be the best approach.

gzt:
wellygary: But, using Less '91 makes little difference to the stocks of Diesel, which are what industry and agriculture burn through ....

A non-zero percentage of the personal transport fleet is diesel. Far higher than 30 years ago. It will make some small difference.

Also there is some (limited) fungibility between fuels.

Having a bit more petrol in the system in a months time will make the situation easier to deal with.

I imagine if people were given a Ration token for 30L if petrol OR 5L of diesel per week, most would pick the former. Plenty of households will have a diesel Hilux next to a petrol corolla or similar in the driveway.

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#3471976 20-Mar-2026 13:06

Scott3:

I imagine if people were given a Ration token for 30L if petrol OR 5L of diesel per week, most would pick the former. Plenty of households will have a diesel Hilux next to a petrol corolla or similar in the driveway.

The various rationing methods are covered well in Wise Response's substack post. The most elegant approach seems to be their TEQ system. Ability to trade 'tokens' seems a good idea and will also benefit EV owners who don't have use for them, so an EV incentive in essence.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

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#3471977 20-Mar-2026 13:07

DjShadow:

Just drove past a BP station where Diesel is $299.9, I'm sure it's never been that high before. All the freight firms I'm feeling for!

The relative increase of diesel price relative to petrol quite a key factor in this situation.

Using costco westgate prices, Diesel is $2.767 / L, 91 RON is $3.067, and 95 RON is $324.7.

Only 30 c / L away from Diesel crossing over the price of petrol, despite diesel not containing road tax.

If we use my local costco in the Gold cost (where both fuels have tax):

Diesel is AUD 2.827 / L
E10 (94 RON) is AUD 2.367 / L
98 Ron is AUD 2.587 / L

This relative increase in price of diesel started when Ukraine was invade, and my assumption is the erosion of petrol demand (from EV's and hybrids) is further moving the balance.

Scott3

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#3471980 20-Mar-2026 13:31

HarmLessSolutions:

Scott3:

I imagine if people were given a Ration token for 30L if petrol OR 5L of diesel per week, most would pick the former. Plenty of households will have a diesel Hilux next to a petrol corolla or similar in the driveway.

The various rationing methods are covered well in Wise Response's substack post. The most elegant approach seems to be their TEQ system. Ability to trade 'tokens' seems a good idea and will also benefit EV owners who don't have use for them, so an EV incentive in essence.

TEQ is an interesting approach.

Wise proposal seems to be to allocate the available fuel on a per head of population basis. This would result in a vast flow of money from businesses to private citizens. Would be very nice for the population (and I assume taxable income), but could be enough to vastly change the cost structure of business, driving massive inflation.

I'm imagining selling my jet fuel allocation for say $50 / week... and airlines paying that to continue to operate.

While very equal it does have a few issues:
- Fuel systems exist to serve their normal user group. I don't really think I have any claim to Jet A1 fuel.
- It's still ultimately allocating by cost. (but private individuals get a bit of a head start via their free allocation). Still the risk that somebody in poverty, may chose to sell their fuel allocation, and skip their important medical appointment etc. For businesses, the ones get the most value from fuel will be able to win the bidding. This may not be the essential stuff. Bus company may decide to renege on it's contract and stop running the city busses due to the cost of fuel tokens. Last thing you want in a fuel shortage. Potato grower may decide it is not work running a harvest and let their crop rot in the ground etc.

cddt

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#3471982 20-Mar-2026 13:38

DjShadow:

Just drove past a BP station where Diesel is $299.9, I'm sure it's never been that high before. All the freight firms I'm feeling for!

It will be passed on. Soon you'll be feeling it directly. :(

wellygary

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#3471983 20-Mar-2026 13:49

Scott3:

Wise proposal seems to be to allocate the available fuel on a per head of population basis. This would result in a vast flow of money from businesses to private citizens. Would be very nice for the population (and I assume taxable income), but could be enough to vastly change the cost structure of business, driving massive inflation.

Basically, its a giant nationalisation of the Fuel system,

But the government owns none of the fuel coming into the country ( it uses the Petroleum or Engine Fuel Monitoring Levy to buy tickets, but these are not stock, they are rights to stock.....)

The Fuel companies own the petrol in tanks and on the water, so for the government to "give" this to households means they would have to buy it from the fuel companies first,??..

To then give rights to this stock to households who then sell bits they don't want'use on to businesses.... sounds like a rather expensive money and fuel go-round

ezbee

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#3471984 20-Mar-2026 13:58

If diesel is the canary.
For diesel long haul trucking would be the dominant user?
An area where we have constant shortage of drivers.

If someone has their fingers close to the stats.

Provide a bounty for these to put what they can on a train pending capacity? Or other incentive.
Save their fuel use for routes, or types of freight that can't be trained.

Given lack of adults in the room on this conflict.
Betting on this being short, or last interruption may be?

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#3471986 20-Mar-2026 14:13

It was interesting last night when I went out to the supermarket around 8pm to pick up a few things.

I live is a fairly quiet suburb of Christchurch, yet I noticed a huge amount of traffic around - far more than usual for that hour of the night. It soon became obvious that every man and his dog was out hunting for fuel. The line at the NPD station on Wairakei Rd was spilling out onto - and quite a ways along - the road.

I assume people watched the 6pm news that featured live on the spot reporting from multiple fuel stations around the motu complete with vision of queues. I suspect potentially rallied people to head out and join the fun....

Someone in our local Facebook group posted a picture of the person in front of them filling 6 obviously brand new 20 litre diesel jerry cans all standing up like soldiers in the back of their SUV.

I'm starting to feel that by heading overseas on Monday week, I won't have to witness the ridiculousness that unfolds in NZ over the next few weeks...

kingdragonfly

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#3471987 20-Mar-2026 14:18

Scott3:
...
A fuel crisis for everyone but Albanese

There are two sure-fire ways to know Canberra thinks an issue is serious: the first, they set up a taskforce. The second, the politicians issue a rallying cry for the country to band together.

The fuel crisis hit this status this week. National cabinet announced a Fuel Supply Taskforce, headed by bureaucrat Anthea Harris. Minutes later, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese urged the public “not to take more fuel than you need”.

...

Wow, the Austalians always have blistering insults.

Unless the NZ govt has secret communications from Iran no one knows, maybe they should move away from "she'll be right. it'll sort itself out in the end" about "work from home."

mattwnz

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#3471989 20-Mar-2026 14:25

i wonder if NZ is still planning this LNG backup power and storage solution to fix the broken electricity market…. Self sufficient hydro power solutions look like a far better option right now. I think this whole thing shows exactly why we shouldn’t be relying on imports for NZs security of services and products we need. Privatisation and transfer of ownership overseas of nz businesses has some major pitfalls

wellygary

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#3471992 20-Mar-2026 14:34

Wheelbarrow01:

It was interesting last night when I went out to the supermarket around 8pm to pick up a few things.

I live is a fairly quiet suburb of Christchurch, yet I noticed a huge amount of traffic around - far more than usual for that hour of the night. It soon became obvious that every man and his dog was out hunting for fuel. The line at the NPD station on Wairakei Rd was spilling out onto - and quite a ways along - the road.

Thursday is discount day @NPD (and others) go back today and tell me its the same??.....

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