2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3471994 20-Mar-2026 14:39

Middle East conflict and New Zealand's fuel stocks:NZ MBIE

Petrol

32.8 days, in-country
25.2 days, on water (en route)
57.9 days, total

Diesel

27.6 days, in,country
22.3 days, on water
49.9 days, total

Jet fuel

32.3 days, in,country
14.3 days, on water
46.8 days, total

SaltyNZ

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#3471995 20-Mar-2026 14:40

Scott3:

- Fuel systems exist to serve their normal user group. I don't really think I have any claim to Jet A1 fuel.

Well, not with that attitude, anyway.

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wellygary

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#3471996 20-Mar-2026 14:40

mattwnz:

i wonder if NZ is still planning this LNG backup power and storage solution to fix the broken electricity market…. Self sufficient hydro power solutions look like a far better option right now. I think this whole thing slow exactly why we shouldn’t be relying on imports for NZs security of services and products we need. Privatisation and transfer of ownership overseas of nz businesses has some major pitfalls

Don't know, but basically pray for rain...

Because it will cost a big fortune to get Methanex to sell gas back to the network this winter...

The global spot methanol price is up 25% in line with LNG prices ( has likely moved even higher now) so Methanex will be creaming it as their NZ GAS feedstock price is isolated from the world price...

If Greenpeace hadn't appealed the Ballance Wind Turbines they would likely be generating H2 by now, getting more demand off Natural gas....

But here we are....

Scott3

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#3471997 20-Mar-2026 14:42

Wheelbarrow01:

It was interesting last night when I went out to the supermarket around 8pm to pick up a few things.

I live is a fairly quiet suburb of Christchurch, yet I noticed a huge amount of traffic around - far more than usual for that hour of the night. It soon became obvious that every man and his dog was out hunting for fuel. The line at the NPD station on Wairakei Rd was spilling out onto - and quite a ways along - the road.

I assume people watched the 6pm news that featured live on the spot reporting from multiple fuel stations around the motu complete with vision of queues. I suspect potentially rallied people to head out and join the fun....

Someone in our local Facebook group posted a picture of the person in front of them filling 6 obviously brand new 20 litre diesel jerry cans all standing up like soldiers in the back of their SUV.

I'm starting to feel that by heading overseas on Monday week, I won't have to witness the ridiculousness that unfolds in NZ over the next few weeks...

NZ has lagged aussie by a bit on this rush to fuel and Jerry can's. And as I mentioned previously, petrol stations were basically empty here.

To some extent, good to get the hoarding out of the way early. The limit of what most people can hoard is relatively low, and once the shops are sold out of Jerry can's it becomes harder (I hear petrol station's don't like you filling wheely bins and the likes...). Means there will be less of a panic run when any actual restrictions get announced. The 6 jerry can example. That's only 120L For somebody who does a decent amount of driving in a somewhat thirsty car, that could be less than two weeks... But when it comes to purchasing, filling, storing & decanting 6 jerry can's, it's a lot... Doubt that person will go for a round 2...

SaltyNZ

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#3471998 20-Mar-2026 14:43

mattwnz:

i wonder if NZ is still planning this LNG backup power and storage solution to fix the broken electricity market…. Self sufficient hydro power solutions look like a far better option right now. I think this whole thing shows exactly why we shouldn’t be relying on imports for NZs security of services and products we need. Privatisation and transfer of ownership overseas of nz businesses has some major pitfalls

Yes, they are. I emailed the PM about a week after this all kicked off and got back a response about how it was Labour's fault and they remain committed to an LNG terminal which will solve all our problems --

Kia ora Simon, 
 
Thank you for your email to the Prime Minister, Rt Hon Christopher Luxon. 
 
Labour’s oil and gas ban increased energy prices, cut jobs, and increased New Zealand reliance on overseas coal.  This means that even though New Zealand is experiencing an electricity generation boom, a rapidly declining gas supply has left our electricity sector exposed during dry years.   
 
That is why the National-led Government will contract to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility in Taranaki in a critical step to strengthen New Zealand’s energy security and support economic growth.  Having this facility is expected to save Kiwis around $265 million per annum, or around $50 per household by reducing price spikes and lowering the risk premium built into power bills. 
 
It is all part of National’s plan to fix the basics and build the future. 
 
Thank you once again for taking the time to write; it is appreciated. 
 
Ngā mihi nui

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

Scott3

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#3471999 20-Mar-2026 14:46

wellygary:

mattwnz:

i wonder if NZ is still planning this LNG backup power and storage solution to fix the broken electricity market…. Self sufficient hydro power solutions look like a far better option right now. I think this whole thing slow exactly why we shouldn’t be relying on imports for NZs security of services and products we need. Privatisation and transfer of ownership overseas of nz businesses has some major pitfalls

Don't know, but basically pray for rain...

Because it will cost a big fortune to get Methanex to sell gas back to the network this winter...

The global spot methanol price is up 25% in line with LNG prices ( has likely moved even higher now) so Methanex will be creaming it as their NZ GAS feedstock price is isolated from the world price...

If Greenpeace hadn't appealed the Ballance Wind Turbines they would likely be generating H2 by now, getting more demand off Natural gas....

But here we are....

We are sweet for power this winter.

We have heaps of renewables getting built at the moment, but still could do with more. Would rather see the $2.7b go that route, rather than leasing some gear for 15 years. The LNG proposal doesn't solve anything long term.

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wellygary

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#3472002 20-Mar-2026 15:04

Scott3:

We have heaps of renewables getting built at the moment, but still could do with more. Would rather see the $2.7b go that route, rather than leasing some gear for 15 years. The LNG proposal doesn't solve anything long term.

$2.7 billion would buy you 12 130MW solar farms churning out 216Gwh each or @2592Gwh annually (or around 5% of NZ's current generation)

https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/news-and-events/meridian-to-proceed-with-227m-ruakaka-solar-farm

Unfortunately, that's only just enough to cover the new 280MW data centre in southland,...

mattwnz

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#3472004 20-Mar-2026 15:12

wellygary:

$2.7 billion would buy you 12 130MW solar farms churning out 216Gwh each or @2592Gwh annually (or around 5% of NZ's current generation)

https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/news-and-events/meridian-to-proceed-with-227m-ruakaka-solar-farm

Unfortunately, that's only just enough to cover the new 280MW data centre in southland,...

isn’t that new AI data centre only going to use power from the hydro station that was built for the smelter where there is an oversupply of electricity ? That is another can of worms though, seems to be very little benefit to NZ imo, apart from the initial short term one from building it.

fastbike

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#3472006 20-Mar-2026 15:18

wellygary:

Scott3:

We have heaps of renewables getting built at the moment, but still could do with more. Would rather see the $2.7b go that route, rather than leasing some gear for 15 years. The LNG proposal doesn't solve anything long term.

$2.7 billion would buy you 12 130MW solar farms churning out 216Gwh each or @2592Gwh annually (or around 5% of NZ's current generation)

https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/news-and-events/meridian-to-proceed-with-227m-ruakaka-solar-farm

Unfortunately, that's only just enough to cover the new 280MW data centre in southland,...

Don't confuse nameplate capacity with what gets delivered.

Otautahi Christchurch

wellygary

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#3472014 20-Mar-2026 15:23

mattwnz:

isn’t that new AI data centre only going to use power from the hydro station that was built for the smelter where there is an oversupply of electricity ? That is another can of worms though, seems to be very little benefit to NZ imo, apart from the initial short term one from building it.

Tiwai consumes pretty much all of Manapouri's annual output @`~5000Gwh,,

While the 20 year contract (24-44) sees some farmed out to Mercury and contact, from a network point of view there is no other major generation in that part of the world, all the electrons will be coming from Manapouri

+ they are thinking of bringing the 4th potline back on line which needs another 50MW ( 400Gwh)

https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360957924/rio-tinto-says-talks-power-firms-increasing-smelters-output-progressing-positively

HarmLessSolutions

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#3472016 20-Mar-2026 15:32

mattwnz:

isn’t that new AI data centre only going to use power from the hydro station that was built for the smelter where there is an oversupply of electricity ? That is another can of worms though, seems to be very little benefit to NZ imo, apart from the initial short term one from building it.

I'm suspecting the AI project will have intentions of positioning itself in the box seat as a recipient of Manapouri's output if/when Tiwai moves out of the picture. As electricity supply and pricing comes under pressure again in the case of a dry year the robustness of Tiwai's long term electricity contract will again be put to the test and if it falls over the AI datacentre will be the winner.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

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HarmLessSolutions

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#3472018 20-Mar-2026 15:36

SaltyNZ:

Kia ora Simon, 
 
Thank you for your email to the Prime Minister, Rt Hon Christopher Luxon. 
 
Labour’s oil and gas ban increased energy prices, cut jobs, and increased New Zealand reliance on overseas coal.  This means that even though New Zealand is experiencing an electricity generation boom, a rapidly declining gas supply has left our electricity sector exposed during dry years.   
 
That is why the National-led Government will contract to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility in Taranaki in a critical step to strengthen New Zealand’s energy security and support economic growth.  Having this facility is expected to save Kiwis around $265 million per annum, or around $50 per household by reducing price spikes and lowering the risk premium built into power bills. 
 
It is all part of National’s plan to fix the basics and build the future. 
 
Thank you once again for taking the time to write; it is appreciated. 
 
Ngā mihi nui

That reply is based on disinformation in regards to Labour's (offshore exploration) oil and gas ban but in any case the reasoning behind the economics of importing LNG hasn't aged well following the events of the past couple of weeks.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

mattwnz

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#3472020 20-Mar-2026 15:38

well maybe the AI datacentre should be required to show that it can source the power it needs first or generate its own power from solar and wind. I noticed IKEA in some parts of the world have their own large wind turbines near the store to generate power for it. As we move to EVs and increase our population largely via immigration we are going to need a lot more generation and storage of that energy

wellygary

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#3472022 20-Mar-2026 15:41

HarmLessSolutions:

mattwnz:

isn’t that new AI data centre only going to use power from the hydro station that was built for the smelter where there is an oversupply of electricity ? That is another can of worms though, seems to be very little benefit to NZ imo, apart from the initial short term one from building it.

I'm suspecting the AI project will have intentions of positioning itself in the box seat as a recipient of Manapouri's output if/when Tiwai moves out of the picture. As electricity supply and pricing comes under pressure again in the case of a dry year the robustness of Tiwai's long term electricity contract will again be put to the test and if it falls over the AI datacentre will be the winner.

At current international Aluminium prices, the Smelter is going nowhere....

When they threatened to walk in 2020 is was below $1500USD/tonne, we're now double that, and with the current long term disruption to gas in the mid east there is a Chunk of Aluminum production that just got very expensive or or non-existent ( UAE and Bahrain are 6% global production alone)

Scott3

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#3472024 20-Mar-2026 15:46

wellygary:

Scott3:

We have heaps of renewables getting built at the moment, but still could do with more. Would rather see the $2.7b go that route, rather than leasing some gear for 15 years. The LNG proposal doesn't solve anything long term.

$2.7 billion would buy you 12 130MW solar farms churning out 216Gwh each or @2592Gwh annually (or around 5% of NZ's current generation)

https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/news-and-events/meridian-to-proceed-with-227m-ruakaka-solar-farm

Unfortunately, that's only just enough to cover the new 280MW data centre in southland,...

Government doesn't have to actually fund 100% of the project. They are cost effective as is, as evidenced by current private construction.

If they did fund them they would have a long term source of revenue, or an assed they could sell.

But generally governments provide a little support, to get private projects over the line. In this case a contract for difference (i.e. guaranteed minimum price) set at say $90 / MWh (9c/kWh) as a long term average, would massively de-risk these project, and leave to a huge flood of private investment, and an epic building boom. If power prices over the contract period come in lower, the government pays the difference (and gets the benefits of an economy juiced with low wholesale power prices), if it comes in higher (and at $90 / MWh it is highly likely it will), the government doesn't pay a cent (and of course enjoys having more power supply on the grid).

Avoid paying to much attention to that data center. The don't have funding to actually build anything.

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