2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3472052 20-Mar-2026 17:01

Just got notification from share tank, purchase of fuel to top up share tank no longer permitted, can still use existing fuel in there.

A full tank lasts me 4-6 weeks. Wondering if should fill car up now, as could be risk of them not allowing it to be used in future. I have enough fuel in sharetank at moment to last a year, and price difference from purchase price currently around $1.

I only use up to 7 litres a week approx.

Handle9

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#3472054 20-Mar-2026 17:05

wellygary:

HarmLessSolutions:

I'm suspecting the AI project will have intentions of positioning itself in the box seat as a recipient of Manapouri's output if/when Tiwai moves out of the picture. As electricity supply and pricing comes under pressure again in the case of a dry year the robustness of Tiwai's long term electricity contract will again be put to the test and if it falls over the AI datacentre will be the winner.

At current international Aluminium prices, the Smelter is going nowhere....

When they threatened to walk in 2020 is was below $1500USD/tonne, we're now double that, and with the current long term disruption to gas in the mid east there is a Chunk of Aluminum production that just got very expensive or or non-existent ( UAE and Bahrain are 6% global production alone)

The current situation is a potential bonanza for Tiwai point. Their direct competitor for extremely pure aluminium is EGA in the UAE who use a very similar process to Tiwai point. With the current supply limitations through the strait of Hormuz the gulf smelters will start running out of raw materials.

Running out of material is a big big deal for a smelter - once you shut it down it’s a six month process to restart it with incredibly high costs.

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#3472055 20-Mar-2026 17:12

cddt:

Hmmmm my elderly parents are supposed to be flying to the UK via Dubai in late May, for a month. Wonder if that will go ahead.

Today Emirates is running EK448 and EK412 (Auckland and Christchurch.) 448 is on a reduced schedule but running 3 times a week and 412 is daily as it passes through Sydney.

They need to look at their options now rather than leaving it. Travel insurance generally excludes wars and Emirates are taking a hard line on passenger generated cancellations.

PolicyGuy

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#3472065 20-Mar-2026 18:41

It's all right folks, we can all relax!
The government is planning for a Worst Case Scenario where the fuel disruption continues for as long as 8 to 12 weeks.😱

That's not the worst case, it's just about the best case!

The Qataris have said that it'll take 9 to 12 months to get their LNG production back to where it was, and they won't be able to make much progress until replacement parts can be delivered through the Strait of Hormuz.

I get a strong mental picture of a dinosaur looking at a giant fireball in the heavens saying "the night sky here in Chicxulub sure is pretty"

cruxis

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#3472077 20-Mar-2026 20:55

Z has disabled Sharetank top‑ups. I’d planned to dollar‑cost average my stored litres upward, since I didn’t expect prices to fall below my blended cost basis. It seems many others had the same strategy and Z reacted.

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#3472098 20-Mar-2026 23:52

cruxis:

Z has disabled Sharetank top‑ups. I’d planned to dollar‑cost average my stored litres upward, since I didn’t expect prices to fall below my blended cost basis. It seems many others had the same strategy and Z reacted.

It was inevitable.

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#3472099 21-Mar-2026 00:00

PolicyGuy:

It's all right folks, we can all relax!
The government is planning for a Worst Case Scenario where the fuel disruption continues for as long as 8 to 12 weeks.😱

That's not the worst case, it's just about the best case!

The Qataris have said that it'll take 9 to 12 months to get their LNG production back to where it was, and they won't be able to make much progress until replacement parts can be delivered through the Strait of Hormuz.

I get a strong mental picture of a dinosaur looking at a giant fireball in the heavens saying "the night sky here in Chicxulub sure is pretty"

It does feel a bit like watching a slow car crash. Also feels like it did in the period before the Covid lockdowns where we were in totally uncharted territory.

cddt

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#3472101 21-Mar-2026 05:31

Handle9:

cddt:

Hmmmm my elderly parents are supposed to be flying to the UK via Dubai in late May, for a month. Wonder if that will go ahead.

Today Emirates is running EK448 and EK412 (Auckland and Christchurch.) 448 is on a reduced schedule but running 3 times a week and 412 is daily as it passes through Sydney.

They need to look at their options now rather than leaving it. Travel insurance generally excludes wars and Emirates are taking a hard line on passenger generated cancellations.

They've been advised by their travel agent that Emirates is permitting cancellation with refund for flights out to the end of April. Travel agent has advised to wait and see if this is extended through to May. Their biggest concern is getting stuck over there.

cddt

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#3472102 21-Mar-2026 05:35

Handle9:

The current situation is a potential bonanza for Tiwai point.

Since Rio Tinto pays a fixed price for electricity (3.6c / kWh IIRC), the increased profits will just flow to offshore owners and won't benefit the local economy at all. Yet another structural problem in our economy exposed — what's the point of having reliable, cheap, renewable power production if the benefit all goes offshore!

Handle9

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#3472104 21-Mar-2026 06:10

cddt:

Handle9:

The current situation is a potential bonanza for Tiwai point.

Since Rio Tinto pays a fixed price for electricity (3.6c / kWh IIRC), the increased profits will just flow to offshore owners and won't benefit the local economy at all. Yet another structural problem in our economy exposed — what's the point of having reliable, cheap, renewable power production if the benefit all goes offshore!

Theres a ton of benefits for New Zealand from Tiwai point. It provides a significant number of industrial jobs in Southland and throughout New Zealand. If Rio sees the opportunity for continued profitability then they’ll invest - they would be stupid not to. That would provide a direct benefit to the New Zealand economy.

If you want to complain about them making money in the good times then presumably you’d be ok with the New Zealand government paying them direct subsidies for the times when they are losing money? You can choose to share risk and profit or you can take a fixed return. You can’t have both.

cddt

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#3472105 21-Mar-2026 06:47

Handle9:

Theres a ton of benefits for New Zealand from Tiwai point. It provides a significant number of industrial jobs in Southland and throughout New Zealand. If Rio sees the opportunity for continued profitability then they’ll invest - they would be stupid not to. That would provide a direct benefit to the New Zealand economy.

If you want to complain about them making money in the good times then presumably you’d be ok with the New Zealand government paying them direct subsidies for the times when they are losing money? You can choose to share risk and profit or you can take a fixed return. You can’t have both.

Two points:

1) The jobs already exist and are unlikely to increase with the aluminium price. This is an asset which is being sweated.

2) We do subsidise them. Every few years they come back, and threaten to close unless we do X or Y. That's been happening for a couple of decades.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/445996/documents-reveal-government-s-multi-million-offer-to-rio-tinto-despite-ruling-out-a-subsidy

https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/03/26/govt-doubles-smelters-carbon-subsidy-to-75m-overriding-officials/

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Handle9

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#3472106 21-Mar-2026 07:04

The reported CAPEX for Tiwai Point is in the region of $30 million- $50 million annually. Commercial process production doesn’t let you “sweat the asset” in the way you are suggesting. It requires constant investment as if you don’t the economics of production get out of hand very quickly.

It’s a commodity production process. If the economics stack they will invest, if they don’t they won’t. The biggest obstacle to more investment is the price of electricity, which is high relative to what is paid internationally.

Rio and Meridien signed a 20 year supply deal in 2024. While you may think Rio play it hard so do Meridien. Meridian wouldn’t have done that deal if they weren’t making money, 51% of which profits provides a direct return to the New Zealand government.

New Zealand needs more foreign direct investment providing well paid jobs and economic stimulus, not less.

Anyway it’s off topic and we should probably take it to another thread if you want to continue the topic.

fastbike

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#3472107 21-Mar-2026 07:18

mattwnz:

PolicyGuy:

It's all right folks, we can all relax!
The government is planning for a Worst Case Scenario where the fuel disruption continues for as long as 8 to 12 weeks.😱

That's not the worst case, it's just about the best case!

The Qataris have said that it'll take 9 to 12 months to get their LNG production back to where it was, and they won't be able to make much progress until replacement parts can be delivered through the Strait of Hormuz.

I get a strong mental picture of a dinosaur looking at a giant fireball in the heavens saying "the night sky here in Chicxulub sure is pretty"

It does feel a bit like watching a slow car crash. Also feels like it did in the period before the Covid lockdowns where we were in totally uncharted territory.

Yesterday, I collected a brand new Nissan EV I had purchased on 2 March . It had to come across the Strait, plus a week to get the ANZ 1% loan contributed to the delay. I had seen the same vehicle at the local dealership but was their last vehicle of this model and had sold the previous day.

I asked the salesman how business was , especially that they were out of EVs. He said they were struggling to sell petrol but doing a roaring trade in diesel . When I responded that diesel was more likely to be rationed for civilian use due to farming and transport having priority he replied that the war would be over soon and everything back to normal

Crikey !

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ezbee

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#3472122 21-Mar-2026 09:03

I imagine the car sales business can be pretty tough, so optimism a necessity.

Suppose oil won't effect the toilet paper supply chain.

In South Korea its plastics with a possible garbage bag apocalypse.
So going 'cold turkey' on plastics a possibility.

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halper86

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#3472154 21-Mar-2026 12:20

The price has gotten to the point where it outweighs the other benefits of driving to work everyday. Not long now until I start taking the bus, like many others have started doing.

I may or may not work for somewhere already mentioned here xD. I am grateful they provide their own buses from and back to the city.

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