Scotland sets 2032 ban for the sale of new diesel and petrol cars: Should NZ do the same?

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › Scotland sets 2032 ban for the sale of new diesel and petrol cars: Should NZ do the same?

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#1860154 7-Sep-2017 09:35

MikeAqua:

afe66: Around 2200 ev in December last year 4100 last month do the number has nearly doubled since then. (in less than one year) This doesn't include the nzpost delivery buggies.

A.

We need some definition in this discussion. Are we talking about pure EVs (battery only) or hybrids. A ban on petrol/diesel vehicles should presumably apply to new hybrids as well?

A different way to view banning of petrol/diesel vehicle is not when but where ...

So for example they could be banned from large areas of the CBD in major cities. I.e. pure EVs only on some roads. Reduce pollution and carbon wasted by cars sitting in traffic.

Just a thought.

Yes, good point, but I doubt whether plug-in hybrids would be banned just because they can predominantly use petrol. If you often drive, say, 30km or less per day, then you can travel 100% electric for most of the time in a plug-in hybrid.

But, as time goes on, I guess plug-in hybrids will be phased out as the range of affordable pure electric EVs will no doubt be sufficient for most people. However, in the meantime, where range anxiety is a real issue for many people considering buying an EV for the first time, a plug-in hybrid isn't a bad option, but the prices need to come down fast!

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#1860233 7-Sep-2017 11:18

Dingbatt: Where's all the extra electricity going to come from? Can't build dams, can't burn coal, geothermal is tapped out, wind is too unreliable, tidal kills fish and nuclear is just too expensive, difficult and dirty. And an inadequate distribution system just makes things worse.
Since NZ has no domestic car manufacturing, the way ICE cars will be phased out here is they just won't be available to import new because no one will be building them.

Edit: Forgot about solar, but that is unreliable and low value as well.
Maybe this thread would be better in the politics forum the way it's headed.

Geothermal is far from tapped out... it's just that we've picked the low-hanging fruit. Wind and solar are unreliable locally, but somewhere in NZ there will always be wind. And, during daylight hours, somewhere there will be sunshine. If there's (e.g.) widespread adoption of solar+powerwall, then cars in sunny places will mostly be charged from locally produced electricity, leaving the hydro/wind/whatever to be distributed to the rest of the country.

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#1860234 7-Sep-2017 11:26

frankv:

Dingbatt: Where's all the extra electricity going to come from? Can't build dams, can't burn coal, geothermal is tapped out, wind is too unreliable, tidal kills fish and nuclear is just too expensive, difficult and dirty. And an inadequate distribution system just makes things worse.
Since NZ has no domestic car manufacturing, the way ICE cars will be phased out here is they just won't be available to import new because no one will be building them.

Edit: Forgot about solar, but that is unreliable and low value as well.
Maybe this thread would be better in the politics forum the way it's headed.

Geothermal is far from tapped out... it's just that we've picked the low-hanging fruit. Wind and solar are unreliable locally, but somewhere in NZ there will always be wind. And, during daylight hours, somewhere there will be sunshine. If there's (e.g.) widespread adoption of solar+powerwall, then cars in sunny places will mostly be charged from locally produced electricity, leaving the hydro/wind/whatever to be distributed to the rest of the country.

Given our position in the roaring forties there is seldom no wind in NZ especially around the coastal regions or the central divides. Wind is a very good option for NZ especially off shore farms.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#1860250 7-Sep-2017 11:55

frednz:

This article reports that:

“Our aim is for new petrol and diesel cars and vans to be phased out in Scotland by 2032 – the end of the period covered by our new climate change plan and eight years ahead of the target set by the UK government,” Sturgeon said on Tuesday.

So, is there any reason why NZ shouldn't do the same?

Looks like I might yet live to own a twin turbo V8 one day https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/road-tests/96441241/mazdas-new-skyactivx-petrol-plans-to-put-the-pressure-on-electric-vehicles

cadman

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#1860259 7-Sep-2017 12:16

It's just the usual political grandstanding, setting some arbitrary date for something they think will be popular. It will happen on its own when the technology becomes feasible for the people that need it.

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#1860270 7-Sep-2017 12:41

cadman:

It's just the usual political grandstanding, setting some arbitrary date for something they think will be popular. It will happen on its own when the technology becomes feasible for the people that need it.

I don't see it as completely arbitrary; it looks to me to be based on a feasible time-scale. I assume that it's based on solid advice regarding expected technological advances in EVs that means they will be feasible by then. I see it more as facilitating the shift to EVs by giving some certainty to the car manufacturers so that they will invest in making their changes earlier, rather too late. Without some political leadership, European car makers could be caught making ICE cars that no-one wants to buy, with huge social consequences for the employees of those companies.

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#1860293 7-Sep-2017 13:31

I support the need for change when it comes to personal transport. However the focus of EVs is over riding something that could be done now, that is the issue we have with older vehicles. NZ like many countries has an aging fleet of cars and trucks that are not only damaging the environment they are damaging our health causing many avoidable premature deaths. These old cars are emitting toxic exhaust at an unacceptable rate especially old poorly serviced diesel engines. Governments could be acting now to get these vehicles off the roads but of course this would be politically risky. Subsidies on newer cleaner ICE vehicles would probably have a greater environmental positive than subsidies on EVs especially given the current development levels of these vehicles. The manufacture of many of the components of EVs namely batteries, magnets and carbon fibre have some very nasty environment consequences that may have EVs actually on the negative side of the climate change ledger which may well be an inconvenient truth.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#1860524 7-Sep-2017 19:21

dickytim:

This leaves the poor with either no transport or dirty old petrol/ diesel transport as an only option

Wait, when did poor people start buying new cars?

For that matter - why couldn't poor people buy second hand EVs?

MarkH67

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#1860525 7-Sep-2017 19:26

Inphinity:

On current availability of EVs, like-for-like, I would be looking to spend somewhere north of $240k, which is just not in budget and is 3 times the ICE-replacement cost.

But we aren't talking about current availability, we are talking about 15 years time!

Take the Nissan Leaf - 24 or 30kWh currently, but early next year there will be a new version with 40kWh battery, early 2019 there will be a 60kWh version. Stuff is changing rapidly, the range is getting better. In 2022 Toyota is supposed to be selling solid state batteries and they are claiming that the solid state batteries will have 3x the capacity of Li-Ion, if this works out then by 2030 there will be no real problem with range on EVs.

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#1860541 7-Sep-2017 20:08

IMHO here is my formula.

60L gas tank = $120+

Recharge = $bugger all?? 40kW battery at 24c per kWh is $10.

Summer if you have Solar PV = almost if not $0

Off Peak charge = cheerier than $10

While $60k+ (as you have to buy new to get the latest EV tech), the $120 vs $10 or less will be a great motivator.

While I am very interested in EV, I feel the masses see this is new and geek and niche, but its not really. Humans dont like change

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#1860551 7-Sep-2017 20:36

frednz:

This article reports that:

“Our aim is for new petrol and diesel cars and vans to be phased out in Scotland by 2032 – the end of the period covered by our new climate change plan and eight years ahead of the target set by the UK government,” Sturgeon said on Tuesday.

So, is there any reason why NZ shouldn't do the same?

There is no reason why NZ can't do the same.....other than our current government is disinclined to do anything of significance about climate change.

That's why we need a new government.

Anyone watching the string of bigger-than-ever hurricanes in the Atlantic? 3 months / year of that and many of those islands will be in effect uninhabitable. We're just getting started here......

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#1860552 7-Sep-2017 20:39

MarkH67:

But we aren't talking about current availability, we are talking about 15 years time!

Take the Nissan Leaf - 24 or 30kWh currently, but early next year there will be a new version with 40kWh battery, early 2019 there will be a 60kWh version. Stuff is changing rapidly, the range is getting better. In 2022 Toyota is supposed to be selling solid state batteries and they are claiming that the solid state batteries will have 3x the capacity of Li-Ion, if this works out then by 2030 there will be no real problem with range on EVs.

Exactly.

If even half of what is claimed for them is true, those solid state batteries won't degrade much at all. So the range will be greater and the life of the battery will likely be several times longer than the car itself.

Long range semis will be viable....and if they don't have human drivers anyway, they will run 24/7 but for scheduled maintenance.

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#1860567 7-Sep-2017 21:08

I think that the government should give interest subsidies for the finance costs of buying an EV. I would love to buy an EV tomorrow. But I wouldn't drive it enough to get enough petrol savings to offset the finance costs. I might only drive it as little as 3000K per year. As most of my driving is for work, Which I need a medium to large van for. And unfortunately no suitable EV vans exist yet.

There should still be a little bit of interest charged. Around 2-5%, so people who have enough cash in the bank to buy an EV won't take up the subsidies just because it is interest free. The government should also cover any fixed account fees that go with the finance. This would especially help those who typically buy approx $10K ICE cars from dealers, stretch their budget to affording an EV.

I get annoyed seeing lots of small hatchback type petrol cars for sale still. Knowing that alot of them will only ever get used on short trips. Meaning often the engine will never get warmed up properly. Which is both bad for the engine, and petrol engines use alot more fuel when they are cold. Yet short urban trips in a small car is the perfect use case for an EV, and is also the use case that will give the biggest overall emissions savings. AFAIK fuel economy figures don't make any allowance for the increased fuel usage from cold starts.

For alot of people, owning both an EV and an ICE vehicle will be the best solution. With the EV being used for weekday commuting, and things like weekend shopping runs. With the ICE vehicle only used when going on holiday, towing the boat etc. Also having a look at that other thread with the car ownership report, once vehicles get over a certain age, the average distance driven falls rapidly. I would like to know what the average age of the NZ vehicle fleet is, after removing cars from the dataset that get driven less than 1000KM per year. As Im sure the age gets skewed alot by people owning classic cars that spend most of their time in the garage.

frednz

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#1860572 7-Sep-2017 21:25

Linuxluver:

frednz:

This article reports that:

“Our aim is for new petrol and diesel cars and vans to be phased out in Scotland by 2032 – the end of the period covered by our new climate change plan and eight years ahead of the target set by the UK government,” Sturgeon said on Tuesday.

So, is there any reason why NZ shouldn't do the same?

There is no reason why NZ can't do the same.....other than our current government is disinclined to do anything of significance about climate change.

That's why we need a new government.

Anyone watching the string of bigger-than-ever hurricanes in the Atlantic? 3 months / year of that and many of those islands will be in effect uninhabitable. We're just getting started here......

Although I would prefer to see the import of new petrol and diesel cars and vans phased out in NZ by a definite date, such as 2032, I think I'm correct in saying that no NZ political party has promised to put a date on doing this?

And what about the import of used petrol and diesel vehicles, is NZ going to become a dumping ground for unwanted used vehicles from other countries which are moving faster to EVs than we are? Shouldn't we be actively discouraging the importing of used ICE vehicles by a given future date?

I'm not sure that a new government is the answer as suggested above because, correct me if I'm wrong, none of the political parties seems to be all that keen to announce policies that will really encourage people to buy EVs sooner rather than later. For example, there are no subsidies on the purchase of new EVs and the sky-high prices of new EVs in NZ means that second-hand dealers will continue to dominate the market without having to provide manufacturers' guarantees.

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#1860607 7-Sep-2017 23:18

Another possible policy - If the EV is bought by a company. Allow the company to write off the entire purchase price as a business expense. Instead of the current depreciation process that applies when a company buys a car. Of course still have the claw back if the company later sells the car for more than book value. (which in this case will be zero) So overall it will be relatively tax neutral for the government. But it will reduce the "on paper" profit of a company in the year that the car is bought.

And restrict that policy to only brand new EVs. To help encourage more new EV models to be released in NZ, as well as more EVs on the roads.

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