2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3472233 21-Mar-2026 15:18

mattwnz:

That's incorrect. Fitch Ratings said in its report the Iran war posed “some risks to the economy, given its substantial dependence on energy imports". I also says how NZs economy is vulnerable to external shocks like this.

It didn’t downgrade the credit rating because of the crisis. It downgraded it because of crown debt. Without the crisis the downgrade was coming.

Its absolutely false to say that the downgrade was a result of the crisis.

The Outlook revision reflects our view that a substantial debt reduction is becoming more difficult to envisage, as fiscal consolidation has been delayed in the past few years. The general government debt-GDP ratio has increased substantially over the past six years as the economy has been buffeted by a number of shocks.

kingdragonfly

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#3472247 21-Mar-2026 16:40

bfginger:
On the subject of supply, does anyone know which if any 98 octane petrols still have ethanol blended in them?

In New Zealand, most 98‑octane petrol does not contain ethanol, but there is one major exception: Gull Force 10, which is a 98‑octane E10 blend.

mudguard

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#3472250 21-Mar-2026 16:48

Yeah I fill up with BP 98 to avoid the ethanol issue (old car)

DjShadow

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#3472251 21-Mar-2026 16:49

Gull has discontinued 98 (E10) fuel, its only 91, 95 and Diesel now (as per their website)

kingdragonfly

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#3472252 21-Mar-2026 16:52

Handle9: It didn’t downgrade the credit rating because of the crisis. It downgraded it because of crown debt. Without the crisis the downgrade was coming.

Its absolutely false to say that the downgrade was a result of the crisis.

Handle9 is correct that the war was not the cause of the downgrade, but incorrect on implying Fitch did not mention the war at all.

Fitch did mention the Iran war as a risk factor.

"The Iran war poses some risks to the economy, given its substantial dependence on energy imports. Direct trade linkages to the Middle East are small, but inflationary effects and a broader global weakening could have a negative impact.
...
We expect a rate hike by end-2026, as the economy recovers and the RBNZ reduces the degree of accommodation, although the Iran war could lead to earlier tightening."

Scott3

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#3472253 21-Mar-2026 16:53

kingdragonfly:
bfginger:

On the subject of supply, does anyone know which if any 98 octane petrols still have ethanol blended in them?

In New Zealand, most 98‑octane petrol does not contain ethanol, but there is one major exception: Gull Force 10, which is a 98‑octane E10 blend.

Should note that gull has stopped carrying Gull Force 10 at many locations, Replacing it with an ethanol free 95 RON product.

Ethanol fuels are now quite rare. I think gull Hampton downs still carries it. (That location was built to handle four fuels, so they could sell E85 for motorsport locations, but for whatever reason they discontinued that product, freeing up space for so they can sell 91, 95, 98 (E10) & diesel at the same time.

[Edit], seems gull stopped selling gull force 10 at Hampton downs a couple of years back, and now only offers 91, 95 and diesel at the location. Pity they don't offer a 98 given they have the extra tank.

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Handle9

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#3472257 21-Mar-2026 17:08

kingdragonfly:
Handle9: It didn’t downgrade the credit rating because of the crisis. It downgraded it because of crown debt. Without the crisis the downgrade was coming.

Its absolutely false to say that the downgrade was a result of the crisis.

Handle9 is correct that the war was not the cause of the downgrade, but incorrect on implying Fitch did not mention the war at all.

Fitch did mention the Iran war as a risk factor.

"The Iran war poses some risks to the economy, given its substantial dependence on energy imports. Direct trade linkages to the Middle East are small, but inflationary effects and a broader global weakening could have a negative impact.
...
We expect a rate hike by end-2026, as the economy recovers and the RBNZ reduces the degree of accommodation, although the Iran war could lead to earlier tightening."

Of course they mentioned the war as a forward looking potential risk in the broader context of the economic recovery. It is mentioned as a potential factor in two subsections of 10 (economic recovery and monetary policy), but not as a major contributing factor in todays announcement.

If it was a major contributing factor it would have been in it's own section and mentioned in the summary.

If the war has an actual and prolonged economic impact, instead of a temporary shock, then it could cause an actual downgrade but it's not the reason that they downgraded New Zealands credit rating outlook.

I should add that they didn't actually downgrade New Zealands credit rating, they downgraded the outlook. I got that wrong

This really should be a different thread.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-outlook-on-new-zealand-to-negative-affirms-at-aa-20-03-2026

Eva888

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#3472264 21-Mar-2026 17:42

Can someone explain why petrol has gone up when we are using stocks that have already been paid for and either sitting in NZ or on a vessel. Should the Commerce Commission be examining this? It’s gone up a dollar a litre minimum and I suspect profiteering from the current situation.
it’s same with Olive oil that has gone from $21 at Pacnsave to $24 in the few days that the war began.

mattwnz

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#3472266 21-Mar-2026 17:51

Handle9:

I should add that they didn't actually downgrade New Zealands credit rating, they downgraded the outlook. I got that wrong

I am pretty sure it will directly affect how the government handles this crisis, as well as any handouts they give to reduce peoples costs so they can continue to buy fuel, probably targeted to peoples income level.

rugrat

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#3472268 21-Mar-2026 17:55

Eva888:

Can someone explain why petrol has gone up when we are using stocks that have already been paid for and either sitting in NZ or on a vessel. Should the Commerce Commission be examining this? It’s gone up a dollar a litre minimum and I suspect profiteering from the current situation.
it’s same with Olive oil that has gone from $21 at Pacnsave to $24 in the few days that the war began.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360949206/petrol-prices-have-gone-because-youre-paying-petrol-thats-not-even-here-yet

From near end of article “it was because prices worked on “replacement” cost - what it would cost to replace the fuel at today’s price, not the price when product hit our shores.”

kingdragonfly

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#3472270 21-Mar-2026 18:06

In case anyone's wondering about biofuels.

For used cooking oil, there’s nowhere near enough of it to fuel a nation.

A small‑scale bioenergy business can start in 12–24 months, but a commercial‑scale plant typically takes 4–7 years from concept to operation.

Small biogas plant on a farm is at least a year.

Medium biodiesel or ethanol facility is at least 3 years.

The spokesperson in the video below is correct that only about 1% of Australia’s fuel comes from bioenergy. He is also correct in that Australia's three biodiesel plants are running at 10% capacity because demand isn’t there.

He is correct that mandates could help scale the industry.

But I don't have much faith in Australian politicians. Put simply Australia has almost no government‑owned emergency fuel stocks. (IEA compliance number is close to zero days)

Back to biofuel, There is food vs fuel tensions, especially in drought years.

This presenter is very wrong on this: EU bioenergy share is not 70% of total energy. It's about 60% of renewable energy or bioenergy is ~14% of total EU energy.

Only in the very best case do biofuels reduce emissions by about 90% (Used cooking oil, tallow). It can be as little as 20% (Canola, soy).

Could biofuel be the solution to Australia's fuel insecurity?

ABC News (Australia)

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kingdragonfly

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#3472272 21-Mar-2026 18:58

When I said "a small biogas plant on a farm is at least a year to build" I included the long planning and approval processes

A 950‑cow farm in Southland ran a generator 7 hours/day, producing 27 kWh per hour, enough to significantly reduce grid electricity use.

A small‑scale digester in Victoria (Australia) serving a dairy farm produced 215,000 kWh/year, exceeding the farm’s 110,000 kWh/year electricity demand. They had full energy coverage plus surplus export.

A couple of links

Planning Guide for Biogas Plants: Energypedia

Biogas Plant Development Handbook: Biogas world

wellygary

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#3472276 21-Mar-2026 19:39

Probably the first bit of semi-good news to come out of this in the last couple of weeks,

If Japan can restore deliveries via the Strait of Hormuz and boost refining capacity this will allow the rebuilding of stockpiles and will go someway to easing the squeeze that has gone on Asian refiners as they all scramble for alternative crude sources...

"Tehran is prepared to allow Japanese-related ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which 93% of Japan’s imported crude oil flows, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said in an interview."

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03/21/japan/japan-iran-hormuz-trump/

DjShadow

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#3472282 21-Mar-2026 20:44

Came across this video on YouTube which gives a good overview of what is happening at Marsden Point, it does include talk of what is presently happening with the energy crisis.

https://youtu.be/ASh6VqCudEI?si=jG6cfo6RIGglo_jZ

HarmLessSolutions

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#3472294 21-Mar-2026 22:44

Very timely article on the wisdom of changes to the CCD and the reality of them in today's fuel situation.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

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