2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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1972 posts

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#3473377 25-Mar-2026 09:53

Scott3:

South Korea (where 48% of our fuel comes from) has started fuel restrictions.

Towards the lower end of the spectrum (mandating 1 carless day per week for public employees, excluding electric and hydrogen). Given their position directly upstream of us in the supply chain, I think this can be used as a fairly firm basis for some kind of action in NZ.

And South Korea has also said they won't export any refined fuels unless at least 90% of their domestic demand is met.

cddt

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#3473378 25-Mar-2026 09:55

Rikkitic:

What happened to using old cooking oil as diesel fuel? That was a thing during the first oil crisis. Is it no longer technically feasible?

Vastly different orders of magnitude.

gzt

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#3473384 25-Mar-2026 10:01

China has restricted fertilizer exports to 50-75% of prewar. Things are really starting to hit the fan.

MikeAqua

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#3473416 25-Mar-2026 10:40

Rikkitic:

What happened to using old cooking oil as diesel fuel? That was a thing during the first oil crisis. Is it no longer technically feasible?

Cooking oils, plant oils and tallows can be made into biodiesel. There are companies that specialise in collecting fats and oils for recycling - Fatman is one example.

If you have an old-school naturally aspirated diesel you can get away with making your own fuel. There a few steps involved to make biodiesel from cooking oil (it involved lye and long low temperature heating last time I looked). Some people do run old diesels directly on cooking oil with specific filtration and preheating systems. I wouldn't try either option in a modern turbo charge diesel engine.

I once tried running filtered used cooking oil instead of diesel in a workshop heater. It was a PITA. The fuel had to be heated to burn properly and it smoked a lot. I'm sure they'd work on biodiesel.

I've also heard of trawlers with meal plants using low grade fish-oil to supplement boiler fuel.

Mike

ezbee

2657 posts

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#3473454 25-Mar-2026 11:46

We export Tallow,
I expect the problem is there is a market for it so price is not so low?

Diesel probably needs to be at a very high price to pay for source materials and large capex on plant.
For profitable return on capital to build the plant, the price has to be high for a long time.

On and off oil shocks and government support does not favor long term investment.
You need assurance of long term high price.

Biodiesel history is not encouraging and that is only talking of 5% blend which did not seem to be economic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofuel_in_New_Zealand

"
Biodiesel
In 2007, Ecodiesel planned to build a biodiesel plant in Onehunga,[1] but the project was not completed.[2]

In 2010, Gull began selling a 5%-blend of biodisel under the brand name Diesel Max.[3] The biodiesel was originally sourced locally from Environ Fuels,[3] and available at 5 of out Gull's 100 petrol stations.[4] Initially, there was some concern about engine compatibility for older vehicles.[5]: 2

In 2014, Gull switched from using locally produced biofuels to an imported blend from Australia, citing "local supply issues".[4]

In 2016, Z Energy opened a biodiesel manufacturing plant in Wiri, called Te Kora Hou.[6]

In 2020, Gull discontinued their biodiesel brand, citing issues with cost, scalability, and import supply chains.[4] That same year, Z Energy announced that they were shutting down their biodiesel factory as it was uneconomical.[7]

In 2022, Z Energy abandoned their biodiesel factory.[7]
"

There is this one in Canterbury at the moment.
https://nzbiofuels.co.nz/products/

BlargHonk

176 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 131

#3473515 25-Mar-2026 13:12

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update

Oh.. oh no.

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cddt

1972 posts

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#3473528 25-Mar-2026 13:19

That doesn't seem... great...

Batman

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#3473530 25-Mar-2026 13:23

Weren’t we told we have 28 days of fuel on route? More ships or ships turned around?

HarmLessSolutions

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#3473578 25-Mar-2026 13:33

Batman:

Weren’t we told we have 28 days of fuel on route? More ships or ships turned around?

MBIE's site states 28.3 days of diesel "one the water", but just 7.2 days due to arrive in the next two weeks. A bit of wishful forecasting going on there maybe?

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

BlargHonk

176 posts

Master Geek
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#3473582 25-Mar-2026 13:41

HarmLessSolutions:

Batman:

Weren’t we told we have 28 days of fuel on route? More ships or ships turned around?

MBIE's site states 28.3 days of diesel "one the water", but just 7.2 days due to arrive in the next two weeks. A bit of wishful forecasting going on there maybe?

Seeing as it takes 2-3 weeks for a fuel shipment to get from Singapore/Korea to NZ, then I assume that we have 20.3 days worth of diesel arriving in that third week. Fingers crossed that's actually the case

cddt

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#3473584 25-Mar-2026 13:43

Surely if it's already "on the water" they can publish when it's expected to arrive, even if it's three weeks away?

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SaltyNZ

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#3473585 25-Mar-2026 13:46

cddt:

Surely if it's already "on the water" they can publish when it's expected to arrive, even if it's three weeks away?

Unless the Aussies pirate it before it gets here. Criminals, the lot of them.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

gzt

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#3473586 25-Mar-2026 13:46

cddt: Surely if it's already "on the water" they can publish when it's expected to arrive, even if it's three weeks away?

Yes, if you go to the link it's in the other graph just not the one published above with the header "Shipments underway that are on track to arrive in New Zealand in the next 2 weeks"

johno1234

3357 posts

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#3473593 25-Mar-2026 14:01

HarmLessSolutions:

Batman:

Weren’t we told we have 28 days of fuel on route? More ships or ships turned around?

MBIE's site states 28.3 days of diesel "one the water", but just 7.2 days due to arrive in the next two weeks. A bit of wishful forecasting going on there maybe?

I think it is reasonable to expect that MBIE has experts who understand petrochemical supply chains better than us randos on GZ.

Batman

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#3473606 25-Mar-2026 14:37

BlargHonk:

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update

Oh.. oh no.

looks like the journos are reading GZ it’s now on the Herald

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