2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › 2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

1 | ... | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | ... | 64

677 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 465

#3473608 25-Mar-2026 14:51

The media continue to instil panic with emotive breaking news headlines "x days of petrol remaining on land, more on the way."

Again, everyone (including the media) is an expert in fuel supply chain and logistics. All these numbers all meaningless without comparisons on how much we usually keep onshore, and how much that can fluctuate.

I agree there will be a supply issue at some point, but that will not be apparent until planned shipments are delayed or stop departing.

Until then panic slowly, reduce your usage if possible.

mattwnz

20515 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4797

#3473611 25-Mar-2026 15:07

Maybe so, but it possibly does show that NZ should always have had more stored for resilience . eg two months worth on land which gives time to arrange alternative sources in case of way. It is not as though that area the crude is coming traveling through is not volatile.

wellygary

8813 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5292

#3473615 25-Mar-2026 15:14

Nate001:

Again, everyone (including the media) is an expert in fuel supply chain and logistics. All these numbers all meaningless without comparisons on how much we usually keep onshore, and how much that can fluctuate.

All those keyboard COVID epidemiologists needed to find a higher calling, so they've "retrained" into fuel logistics and storage analysts, ..

The way things are going they'll either be tanker insurance actuaries or armchair generals by the end of the month...

mudguard

2327 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1250

#3473626 25-Mar-2026 15:24

mattwnz:

Maybe so, but it possibly does show that NZ should always have had more stored for resilience . eg two months worth on land which gives time to arrange alternative sources in case of way. It is not as though that area the crude is coming traveling through is not volatile.

Like anything, redundancy comes down to cost. Would double the storage make financial sense? I'm agreeing by the way, but it's usually what it comes down to.

SaltyNZ

8867 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9548

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3473629 25-Mar-2026 15:32

mudguard:

Like anything, redundancy comes down to cost. Would double the storage make financial sense? I'm agreeing by the way, but it's usually what it comes down to.

Yep. Everyone always says "you didn't build it good enough" when there's a massive crisis, but they would never agree to pay for the service if it cost as much as it would need to in order to build it to handle this sort of thing without breaking a sweat. Like yeah we could probably build our mobile network to withstand a magnitude 9 earthquake, but would you pay $10,000/mth for a mobile plan?

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

wellygary

8813 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5292

#3473631 25-Mar-2026 15:38

mudguard:

Like anything, redundancy comes down to cost. Would double the storage make financial sense? I'm agreeing by the way, but it's usually what it comes down to.

Yip, its always cost,

As an IEA member we've signed on to hold 90 days of reserves, but we basically only do 50% of that as physical stock, the rest are "tickets" ( generally for crude) which are basically options to be able to buy fuel from the market..

I suspect this latest crisis will see us plan to hold more physical stocks and fewer options ( sounds like they are looking to Marsden as the location for this) - but we pay for this via a fuel levy on fuel called the "Petroleum or Engine Fuel Monitoring Levy"

Apple TV

Stream your favourite shows now on Apple TV (affiliate link).

cddt

1970 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1905

#3473633 25-Mar-2026 15:47

wellygary:

Yip, its always cost,

As an IEA member we've signed on to hold 90 days of reserves, but we basically only do 50% of that as physical stock, the rest are "tickets" ( generally for crude) which are basically options to be able to buy fuel from the market..

I suspect this latest crisis will see us plan to hold more physical stocks and fewer options ( sounds like they are looking to Marsden as the location for this) - but we pay for this via a fuel levy on fuel called the "Petroleum or Engine Fuel Monitoring Levy"

But the government cancelled this in 2024?

Nate001

677 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 465

#3473635 25-Mar-2026 15:59

It’s all very well building larger reserves, but this is only valid if supply is temporarily disrupted. Instead of running out next week, you may have an extra 2 weeks. Then what?

fastbike

447 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 320

#3473641 25-Mar-2026 16:15

Nate001:

The media continue to instil panic with emotive breaking news headlines "x days of petrol remaining on land, more on the way."

Again, everyone (including the media) is an expert in fuel supply chain and logistics. All these numbers all meaningless without comparisons on how much we usually keep onshore, and how much that can fluctuate.

I agree there will be a supply issue at some point, but that will not be apparent until planned shipments are delayed or stop departing.

Until then panic slowly, reduce your usage if possible.

Crises happen gradually and then suddenly. We are gradually running out of fuel ... basically, over the next two weeks to 5 April we have 5 days worth of petrol, 7 days worth of diesel, and 14 days of jet fuel arriving by tanker. To avoid running out we should be getting 14 days of each fuel type, given stocks are already well below what is considered prudent.

Why is the government not rationing ? Will they wait until rationing becomes meaningless as the required cuts to keep the lights on inflict deep pain and damage to society and the economy ?

Source: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-generation-and-mar…

Otautahi Christchurch

fastbike

447 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 320

#3473645 25-Mar-2026 16:20

BlargHonk:

Seeing as it takes 2-3 weeks for a fuel shipment to get from Singapore/Korea to NZ, then I assume that we have 20.3 days worth of diesel arriving in that third week. Fingers crossed that's actually the case

They are telling porkies, last week the number of ships due to arrive was 7 in week one and 1 in week two. Yet they had the blatant lie about the amount on the water being higher than shown in those two weeks. So I'm calling bullshit on their numbers as the week tow for the latest figures should have been on the water and part of the imaginary figures they reported as at 15th. The data comes from the fuel importers, the government needs to force them to hand it over not issue a "please share your data" request.

Otautahi Christchurch

ezbee

2656 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3096

#3473646 25-Mar-2026 16:24

This does give a view on shipping cost increase 'so far' we have to add to the tankers coming.

Our export costs.

Then there is everything else we import in bulk that comes by ship.
Which is a large part of what's on the shelves of our stores.

Higher diesel, shipping costs pile pressure on logging industry
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/590554/higher-diesel-shipping-costs-pile-pressure-on-logging-industry

""
"The costs of shipping have risen dramatically, with rates going from roughly 33 US dollars per cubic metre into China for March, through to about 45 US dollars in April. It's a perfect storm just right now."
""
The industry was diesel dependent, and it took 12 litres of diesel to produce one tonne of logs.
"

HP

Shop now for HP laptops and other devices (affiliate link).

Batman

Mad Scientist
30014 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 6217

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3473655 25-Mar-2026 16:41

Phillipines with 45 days of fuel in reserves have declared a state of emergency.

Small cars use should be encouraged. Car pooling encouraged. Large engines should be disallowed for this period. Recreational boats and their hundred to thousand litre fuel tanks … well … maybe they shouldn’t be allowed

Scott3

4177 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2990

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3473667 25-Mar-2026 17:05

HarmLessSolutions:

wellygary:

We need refineries to prioritise turning the remaining crude sources into Diesel, which is essential for the "productive" sector..

Crude oil has a fixed percentage of its constituent fractions. Prioritising to particular fractions is about as viable as breeding cattle with higher sirloin content.

The exception is when heavier fractioned are cracked but this adds extra expense to the refining process so would have limited potential in controlling fuel price rises.

There are opportunities for refineries to tweak cut points, to make small changes to the ratios of fuels produced.

But there are limits to what can be done, I suggest the price signals alone will incentives refineries to turn diesel up to the max. Diesel is very expensive relative to petrol right now.

mudguard

2327 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1250

#3473669 25-Mar-2026 17:12

SaltyNZ:

Yep. Everyone always says "you didn't build it good enough" when there's a massive crisis, but they would never agree to pay for the service if it cost as much as it would need to in order to build it to handle this sort of thing without breaking a sweat. Like yeah we could probably build our mobile network to withstand a magnitude 9 earthquake, but would you pay $10,000/mth for a mobile plan?

At the risk of drifting too far off topic but I find it maddening given our geography that electricity generation for example is handled by anyone other than the government. We are long and skinny with power generated by and large at the wrong end that it's needed (sorry South Island).

Maybe can't mirror Norway, but perhaps a long term goal is everyone owning a short range EV and renewable generation being the target.

I've changed jobs from averaging something like 2500L per year to using to 130L as of today so the timing has been very lucky.

mattwnz

20515 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4797

#3473698 25-Mar-2026 18:01

Nate001:

It’s all very well building larger reserves, but this is only valid if supply is temporarily disrupted. Instead of running out next week, you may have an extra 2 weeks. Then what?

it buys time to arrange alternatives and reduces the time of potential restrictions. What we need to know is if there is going to be a gap in supply and for how long.

1 | ... | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | ... | 64