2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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978 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#3473709 25-Mar-2026 18:57

The on-water days given has to be based on vibes at this point surely? Otherwise we are panic buying at an extraordinary rate (plus distribution happening at rapid pace??)

As at 15 March - Petrol in country 28.1 Days, with 22 Days due to arrive by the 22nd.

As at 18 March - petrol in country 27.4 Days, with 20 Days due to arrive by the 25th.

However as at 22 March - petrol in country 24.5 Days, say we are using a days worth each day like normal and all 22 days worth landed in country on time, we theoretically should have 39 days worth on the 22nd?? (based on stock as at March 15) If all that fuel due by the 22nd is coming in on time, we must have consumed 3x the daily average for a whole week to be left with 24.5 days on the 22nd...

At this point I actually hope my logic is wrong, and it's not as bad as it seems...

NzBeagle

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Ultimate Geek
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#3473720 25-Mar-2026 19:26

Hopefully, stockpiled will not be wasted, and the amount that is being stockpiled, will slow down. Assuming all the fuel containers have sold out.

Having adjusted some recreational usage, and driving behavior, due to cost, I can only replenish the tanks of my vehicles.

cddt

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#3473721 25-Mar-2026 19:42

JarrodM:

Otherwise we are panic buying at an extraordinary rate

There has been an extraordinary amount of stockpiling. Not by the people you might expect either...

Batman

Mad Scientist
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#3473725 25-Mar-2026 19:46

cddt:

JarrodM:

Otherwise we are panic buying at an extraordinary rate

There has been an extraordinary amount of stockpiling. Not by the people you might expect either...

you hope they are using containers that are truly air tight. because every time i put stuff in my fuel can, it disappears over time!

mattwnz

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#3473727 25-Mar-2026 19:49

I would have thought it would be prudent for the government to do something that could reduce usage. Such as recommending people do certain things like work from home if they can etc. reducing the amount of fuel someone can buy etc

DjShadow

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#3473732 25-Mar-2026 20:17

I did see a FB post from Massey University indicating they have stood up their Crisis Management Team, can only assume it’ll be a matter of time before other employers start thinking about this also

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fastbike

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Ultimate Geek
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#3473765 25-Mar-2026 21:17

mattwnz:

Nate001:

It’s all very well building larger reserves, but this is only valid if supply is temporarily disrupted. Instead of running out next week, you may have an extra 2 weeks. Then what?

it buys time to arrange alternatives and reduces the time of potential restrictions. What we need to know is if there is going to be a gap in supply and for how long.

You seem to be missing the fact that this is a tipping point.

You may briefly go back to some happy motoring , but another crisis awaits.

Otautahi Christchurch

cddt

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#3473833 26-Mar-2026 07:26

cddt:

There has been an extraordinary amount of stockpiling. Not by the people you might expect either...

Stopped by the local BP the other night, it was 10:30 p.m. But the attendant told me they were supposed to close at 9:00 p.m. but couldn't because of the people coming to stockpile. From what I saw it wasn't 20 L jerry cans they were using either...much larger containers were being filled.

Mind boggling that there haven't been purchase limits already implemented to stop this kind of thing.

johno1234

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#3473837 26-Mar-2026 07:45

It’s like COVID toilet paper stockpiling. Never mind herd immunity. We have bovine herd mentality.

gzt

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#3473838 26-Mar-2026 07:45

The relative silence from the government on that aspect is starting to get concerning.

nitro

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Ultimate Geek
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#3473839 26-Mar-2026 07:57

cddt:

Stopped by the local BP the other night, it was 10:30 p.m. But the attendant told me they were supposed to close at 9:00 p.m. but couldn't because of the people coming to stockpile. From what I saw it wasn't 20 L jerry cans they were using either...much larger containers were being filled.

Mind boggling that there haven't been purchase limits already implemented to stop this kind of thing.

if what the attendant said was true, then they're part of the problem. why stay open for longer than the usual hours? the usual opportunistic money grab? staying open beyond the usual hours is not something an "attendant" could just decide on his/her own.

actually, this being your "local BP", you would have known what time they close. why were you there at that time? how big were your containers? 😁

of course, it could just be the attendant yanking your chain, trying to say something catchy in the current environment. it could be one of those stations open until midnight, or 24 hours even.

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nitro

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Ultimate Geek
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#3473842 26-Mar-2026 08:06

fastbike:

You seem to be missing the fact that this is a tipping point.

You may briefly go back to some happy motoring , but another crisis awaits.

unfortunately, humans as a whole tend to consume much more than is necessary. and even encourage greater consumption of a product/material if it makes them money.

after oil, and when the bulk of transport are EVs, i won't be surprised if the supply of the minerals for batteries becomes the next crisis.

HarmLessSolutions

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#3473844 26-Mar-2026 08:18

nitro:

fastbike:

You seem to be missing the fact that this is a tipping point.

You may briefly go back to some happy motoring , but another crisis awaits.

unfortunately, humans as a whole tend to consume much more than is necessary. and even encourage greater consumption of a product/material if it makes them money.

after oil, and when the bulk of transport are EVs, i won't be surprised if the supply of the minerals for batteries becomes the next crisis.

At least batteries can be recycled for their mineral content. Fossil fuels not so much.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

johno1234

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#3473855 26-Mar-2026 08:44

HarmLessSolutions:

At least batteries can be recycled for their mineral content. Fossil fuels not so much.

Nature recycles fossil fuels

sen8or

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#3473863 26-Mar-2026 08:52

As the country electrifies, the next crisis will be energy supply / consumption. The grid won't cope during peak periods, and offpeak will become a thing of the past as chargers get programmed for overnight consumption.

We are well down on solar adoption, although outright cost is less of a barrier than it used to be ($10k +/- for a grid tied system, more for battery), but these systems won't help charging evs for many as they are at work during the day and even a battery won't really help.

As we turn towards electirfication, watch to see the power prices climb (more so than they already are) - supply/demand

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