2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › 2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | ... | 69

18756 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 7886

Lifetime subscriber

#3468618 10-Mar-2026 23:06

Thailand and Vietnam encourage working from home and public transport to reduce pressure on fuel supply:

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/03/10/thai-cabinet-orders-work-from-home-26c-air-con-and-halts-overseas-trips

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/03/10/vietnam-urges-people-to-work-from-home-to-save-fuel-as-middle-east-conflict-disrupts-supplies

Scott3

4177 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2990

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3468626 11-Mar-2026 01:29

cddt:

The government is really dropping the ball on this one. We want to know what the plan is. Or even that a plan exists.

Is there a plan to ration and prioritise diesel if stock drops to 14 days? 7 days? 3 days? Or the country just continues BAU until we get to zero and hunger sets in?

Surely the government has a plan to dust off in the event of a disruption of fuel supplies. But it would be nice to know they are taking it seriously. Right now the indications are they are ignoring it and hoping it will solve itself. Head in the sand as usual.

Reminds me a little of the weeks in January, February 2020 when a storm was gathering and our government (of the other colour that time) deferred and demurred until the last minute.

There are plans to manage fuel shortages.

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/assets/fuel-security-plan-november-2025.pdf

https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/documents/publications/guidelines/supporting-plans/National-fuel-plan/SP-04-24-National-Fuel-Plan-Final-2024.pdf

The plan is set up as to be quite flexible so that a specific response can be applied to a particular shortage situation.

Generally it is written to deal with a current fuel shortage, rather than an anticipated one, so I didn't see any trigger thresholds for days of storage.

General approach seems to be give priority to critical user's (Designating some fuel station's as critical user only is mentioned) - Critical user list is long, but is generally in line with what I think. And it includes filling the tanks of personal vehicles of the people who work in those industries so they can commute by car.

The suggested mandatory conservation measure's, don't really go beyond making fuel less convenient to buy (i.e. Maximum purchaser quantity, restrict sales into containers , opening hour restrictions, and critical user priority). Not all bad, but if we are say trying to shave 20% off our demand, fuel will end up being rationed by inconvenience. Those willing to wait for 2 hours to get their 20L allocation will be the people who get fuel. Not really such a fan of this approach. Willingness to wait in long lines is not an efficient way to allocated a scares resource, not to mention, the fuel burned by people sitting in idling cars waiting two hours for their say 30L allocation.

On Covid-19, there was a pandemic plan (abet for a different virus type). I think the deferring to last minute was a good public management approach from the government. Buy waiting untill the public was screaming at them to take action, they gained high public support for the first lockdown.

mattwnz:

Yeah Ambulance at the bottom of the cliff probably. Sort of like NZs health system when Covid hit, we had no decent true pandemic plans so the country had to lock down to prevent the health system becoming overloaded.

We did have a plan, abet for influenza:

https://www.mcguinnessinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/MoH-2017a.pdf

Note this document is now superseded.

MikeAqua

8036 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3827

#3468665 11-Mar-2026 09:50

Scott3:

gzt: The cost of a 20 litre container is going to add $1.50 minimum to your per litre price. You'd have to be confident the price will hit $4.50 a litre minimum to pay for that.

I think it is fair to assume people buying new Jerry Cans, are bothered by security of supply (Shortages / Rationing / Long queues), rather than cost.

It's amazing how cheaply you can buy jerry cans at garage sales, car boot sales etc. I have ten. The cheapest petrol where I live is in a small fuel station on a narrowish street in the 'CBD', that I can't easily get the boat trailer into. It's more or less on the way to where we store the boat. So ... I load my jerry cans into the SUV, open all the windows and off we go. Kind of sucks in winter!

Mike

PolicyGuy

1823 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1774

ID Verified

Lifetime subscriber

#3468667 11-Mar-2026 09:59

Scott3:

{snip}

The suggested mandatory conservation measure's, don't really go beyond making fuel less convenient to buy (i.e. Maximum purchaser quantity, restrict sales into containers , opening hour restrictions, and critical user priority). Not all bad, but if we are say trying to shave 20% off our demand, fuel will end up being rationed by inconvenience. Those willing to wait for 2 hours to get their 20L allocation will be the people who get fuel. Not really such a fan of this approach. Willingness to wait in long lines is not an efficient way to allocated a scares resource, not to mention, the fuel burned by people sitting in idling cars waiting two hours for their say 30L allocation.

{snip}

This would only exacerbate inequities.
Firstly, less well off folks tend to live in far-flung suburbs and have older less efficient vehicles, so they have to use more fuel to survive.
Secondly, while the low-paid worker can't afford to queue for fuel in work time, their boss will send one of the peons off in the bosses car to get its 30L fill up while the boss is in the office. You know that's what will happen.

What the government needs is a fuel rationing plan.
It would IMO be anathema to large factions within the current government, so won't happen unless / until circumstances get so dire that There Is No Alternative, and when backed into a TINA corner, organisations make rushed and probably poor decisions. Sigh.

Oh, and while "I'm alright, Jack, I've got a BEV, I can drive anywhere I like" might be true, it won't be much help when the supermarket shelves are hugely restricted because the truckies can't get enough diesel to support our current distribution model.

(Sings)
Oh I'm H, A, P, P, Y
Yes I'm H, A, P, P, Y ...

gzt

18756 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 7886

Lifetime subscriber

#3468689 11-Mar-2026 10:49

Carless days: Not great policy. Big drama, but only saved 3 - 3.6% of fuel.

These days imo we have a lot more discretionary kms travelled. Families and individuals 5%-20% reduction would be relatively painless. A few words from the government supporting wfh and reduced kms in this period at some point would probably be useful.

noroad

1029 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 680

Trusted

#3468690 11-Mar-2026 10:53

DjShadow:

Seen a few FB comments from people in political positions going on about the bad mistake of shutting down Marsden Point, problem they miss is we still need to import crude oil to be refined.

Seen the odd post too about Taranaki oil, it was never suitable for Marsden Point as its too light

Crude is a lot easier to deal with compared to specific grades of refined products.

Lego

Shop now for Lego sets and other gifts (affiliate link).

SaltyNZ

8892 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9620

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3468692 11-Mar-2026 10:55

gzt:
Carless days: Not great policy. Big drama, but only saved 3 - 3.6% of fuel.

These days imo we have a lot more discretionary kms travelled. Families and individuals 5%-20% reduction would be relatively painless. A few words from the government supporting wfh and reduced kms in this period at some point would probably be useful.

You'd like to think so but one of the things that was apparent during COVID - and also spelled out again in the second commission report that was just released - is that a lot of people are a lot more suspicious, angry and ultimately rebellious about the government than you'd think. Oh, I have to stop my discretionary driving do I because there's a shortage? Fake news. I happen to know our fuel doesn't come from Iran, so f*** you G-man, I'm going to drive twice as much just because.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

noroad

1029 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 680

Trusted

#3468696 11-Mar-2026 10:59

kingdragonfly:

The difference is that an oven cycles on and off, while an EV charger might draw around 32 A continuously for several hours.

The transformer and power lines feeding your house are significantly oversubscribed. Just because a single house has a 60A feed this does not mean the rest of the grid that was largely designed 60+ years ago can handle every house pulling consistent 40-50A+ loads (assuming one EV per house). Walk down the street and look at how many houses are being fed of each big green transformer and check out the rating of the transformers. The math is not hard and will shock people when they realise how unsustainable the grid is, let alone the generation.

networkn

Networkn
32884 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 15483

ID Verified

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3468703 11-Mar-2026 11:02

Heh, panic buying of EV's to avoid the uncertainty around petrol supply and pricing, will simply cause power shortages, and a spike in energy prices.

gzt

18756 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 7886

Lifetime subscriber

#3468710 11-Mar-2026 11:23

networkn: Heh, panic buying of EV's to avoid the uncertainty around petrol supply and pricing, will simply cause power shortages, and a spike in energy prices.

I really don't think either of those will occur. Night rate availability might increase and that would be a good thing. No doubt EVs are more attractive in the current climate but over three to five years the yearly sales growth average is probably not going to change that much.

SaltyNZ

8892 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9620

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3468711 11-Mar-2026 11:24

noroad:

kingdragonfly:

The difference is that an oven cycles on and off, while an EV charger might draw around 32 A continuously for several hours.

The transformer and power lines feeding your house are significantly oversubscribed. Just because a single house has a 60A feed this does not mean the rest of the grid that was largely designed 60+ years ago can handle every house pulling consistent 40-50A+ loads (assuming one EV per house). Walk down the street and look at how many houses are being fed of each big green transformer and check out the rating of the transformers. The math is not hard and will shock people when they realise how unsustainable the grid is, let alone the generation.

Fortunately, this is a problem we can control, as long as this and later governments actually use their controlling interests in the gentailers and transpower to make sure it gets done.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

Geekzone support

Support Geekzone with one-off or recurring donations Donate via PressPatron.

networkn

Networkn
32884 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 15483

ID Verified

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3468715 11-Mar-2026 11:36

I really don't think either of those will occur. Night rate availability might increase and that would be a good thing. No doubt EVs are more attractive in the current climate but over three to five years the yearly sales growth average is probably not going to change that much.

I honestly think that is wildly over optimistic. Every conversation I've heard from experts discussing NZ's current generation capacity and likelyhood of power shortages, and impending power price increases indicate we are in for a rough time over the next 10 years.

elpenguino

3579 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2943

#3468717 11-Mar-2026 11:44

DjShadow:

Seen a few FB comments from people in political positions going on about the bad mistake of shutting down Marsden Point, problem they miss is we still need to import crude oil to be refined.

Seen the odd post too about Taranaki oil, it was never suitable for Marsden Point as its too light

Anybody questioning the wisdom of closing the Marsden Point refinery needs to remember it is private property. If the owners want to close it, it's up to them.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

SaltyNZ

8892 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9620

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3468718 11-Mar-2026 11:45

networkn:

I really don't think either of those will occur. Night rate availability might increase and that would be a good thing. No doubt EVs are more attractive in the current climate but over three to five years the yearly sales growth average is probably not going to change that much.

I honestly think that is wildly over optimistic. Every conversation I've heard from experts discussing NZ's current generation capacity and likelyhood of power shortages, and impending power price increases indicate we are in for a rough time over the next 10 years.

Even panic buying isn't going to change the number of EVs on the road so fast it will cause an issue in the short term. As lots of people have already pointed, EVs are expensive, even the good-quality second hand ones. Absolutely cheaper in the long run, but expensive up front.

I'm certainly hoping enough people will feel a nudge that I'll get a decent price for the ZS I have to sell now that I upgraded it without needing to wait for half a year, but it isn't like we're going to get a million panic purchased EVs on the road next month.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

gzt

18756 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 7886

Lifetime subscriber

#3468719 11-Mar-2026 11:46

networkn: I honestly think that is wildly over optimistic. Every conversation I've heard from experts discussing NZ's current generation capacity and likelyhood of power shortages, and impending power price increases indicate we are in for a rough time over the next 10 years.

You've moved from 'panic buying of EVs' to a longer term supply challenge. I respectfully suggest that is a different discussion. There is no shortage of ideas on how that will be resolved.

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | ... | 69