2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3474096 26-Mar-2026 15:30

Dingbatt:

Eva888:

Except for the misguided and dreamers, most people I know are self regulating their unnecessary trips. Reading what’s happening in the Middle East minute by minute you can understand fuel shortage isn’t an issue that’s going away fast and it’s beyond me why government are silent about conserving and daily making it sound as if there’s isn’t a problem and it’s all sweet as.

Are you suggesting they pull the “podium of truth” out of the cupboard and start midday briefings?

Those were 1 p.m. briefings, and the government has gone to great lengths to try to avoid triggering memories of that, as The Spinoff records:

But as emergency mode is engaged with that fleet-of-five-million energy, and as the Strait of Hormuz shoots to the top of the list of Roads of National Significance, Nicola Willis – flanked variously by Christopher Luxon and Shane Jones – has been keen to emphasise the ways in which they’re doing things just as very un-Covidly as you can possibly imagine. After all, the Covid response and its cost-of-living exhaust fumes are blamed daily for the fiscal abominations the National-led government inherited. That stuff is high-octane kryptonite.

So as Willis and Luxon arrived today to the cluster of microphones assembled in the Beehive Banquet Hall (not, please note, the Beehive Theatrette) at 12.30pm (not, please note, 1pm), we could predict with some confidence what the fuel crisis support package would not be. The measures, trailed as “timely, targeted and temporary”, must not have the air of a nanny state, and must not have the shimmer of Labour packages past. It would not be a wage subsidy or a fuel excise cut; it would not be a winter energy payment, nor, god forbid, the much derided $350 cost of living payment.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/24-03-2026/willis-unveils-50-a-week-fuel-crisis-package-with-three-ts-and-zero-covid

Scott3

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#3474099 26-Mar-2026 15:41

kyhwana2:

Looks like https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update is now 404?? Below is what image I captured before I refreshed it..

It has now reverted to what it was previously up:

Key thing from the retracted document, is that there is a substantial quantity of fuel in ships that had arrived in NZ as at 11:59PM, but had not yet competed discharging, and hence their fuel was counted in neither the in country stocks, or in transit stock's. (we have a massive quantity of fuel due in a week ago, so this makes sense, especially in light of the low on shore diesel stock).

Otherwise a lot of inconstancies with the old version. I assume errors as it has been taken down.

mattwnz

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#3474105 26-Mar-2026 15:50

Eva888:

News outlet Bloomberg has reported the South Korean government is discussing whether to redirect export-bound jet fuel to the domestic market amid mounting supply pressures.

South Korea is a major source of refined fuel imports to New Zealand, providing around half of the country's fuel, and South Korea itself relies heavily on crude oil imports from the war-disrupted Middle East.

Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold said some Asian refineries were now running short of crude oil feedstock, and airlines were being asked to carry more fuel for their return flights.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/590695/concerns-countries-in-asia-are-hoarding-jet-fuel

i would think that could be a big risk for them because they could permanently lose a lot of customers after this ends

ezbee

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#3474108 26-Mar-2026 16:05

Fuel market is very 'fluid'.
I think we have used Singapore from time to time too.
That's how market is, much like every vendor will have their home country pulling rank.
Big customers pulling rank, and tiddlers like us we know what to expect.
I expect everyone is adult about it.

South Korea can't also signal weakness to North Korea, especially with USA pulling out missile defense.

We could ask a South Korean shipyard worker, or contractor how they feel about a sacrificing some fuel for us cos we are special tho. :-)

Commodity markets the most loyalty you can expect is maybe second chance to requote.

kyhwana2

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#3474115 26-Mar-2026 16:26

Scott3:

kyhwana2:

Looks like https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update is now 404?? Below is what image I captured before I refreshed it..

It has now reverted to what it was previously up:

Looks like they have reverted back to the 3 week shipments now! Wonder what's going on there..

cddt

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#3474124 26-Mar-2026 16:40

mattwnz:

i would think that could be a big risk for them because they could permanently lose a lot of customers after this ends

I don't think so. After this is all over and things are back to normal, companies will buy fuel at whatever the best price is.

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gzt

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#3474136 26-Mar-2026 17:06

cddt:
mattwnz: i would think that could be a big risk for them because they could permanently lose a lot of customers after this ends
I don't think so. After this is all over and things are back to normal, companies will buy fuel at whatever the best price is.

Logistics and strategic elements are a factor in these markets. It's not an entirely simple commodity.

Scott3

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#3474139 26-Mar-2026 17:14

gzt: Logistics and strategic elements are a factor in these markets. It's not an entirely simple commodity.

It's a commodity product. If we refuse to buy from Korea, somebody else will.

Also, I would not be surprised if every major refining country also put's their domestic industry ahead of export.

johno1234

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#3474140 26-Mar-2026 17:15

An explanation for the MBIE confusion:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/mbie-clarifies-fuel-data-showing-far-more-diesel-and-jet-fuel-adds-extra-shipment/IVYCA3KLT5D33PN5UJ7MM2OPNA/

gzt

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#3474144 26-Mar-2026 17:36

Scott3:
gzt: Logistics and strategic elements are a factor in these markets. It's not an entirely simple commodity.
It's a commodity product. If we refuse to buy from Korea, somebody else will. Also, I would not be surprised if every major refining country also put's their domestic industry ahead of export.

It is not an entirely simple commodity. That is one of the reasons existing relationships count for more than in purely undifferentiated commodity markets. I'm not going to argue those are strong enough to prevent breaking of contracts in extreme circumstances. The NZ government does not have any immediate concerns about that:

"On South Korea, ACT leader David Seymour said the government was "very carefully" watching reports that it was considering redirecting export-bound jet fuel to its local market. "South Korean refineries are important to New Zealand's fuel supply," he said. "We're keeping that relationship very tight." Seymour pointed out that Prime Minister Christopher Luxon spoke with Korea's president on Tuesday night. In a post on X after that conversation, Luxon wrote that the discussion focused on "the urgent need for de-escalation and the importance of stability to keep our economies moving"

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/top/590714/nz-will-not-move-up-fuel-alert-level-tomorrow-willis-says-changes-will-not-be-sudden

JarrodM

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#3474147 26-Mar-2026 18:20

JarrodM:

The on-water days given has to be based on vibes at this point surely? Otherwise we are panic buying at an extraordinary rate (plus distribution happening at rapid pace??)

As at 15 March - Petrol in country 28.1 Days, with 22 Days due to arrive by the 22nd.

As at 18 March - petrol in country 27.4 Days, with 20 Days due to arrive by the 25th.

However as at 22 March - petrol in country 24.5 Days, say we are using a days worth each day like normal and all 22 days worth landed in country on time, we theoretically should have 39 days worth on the 22nd?? (based on stock as at March 15) If all that fuel due by the 22nd is coming in on time, we must have consumed 3x the daily average for a whole week to be left with 24.5 days on the 22nd...

At this point I actually hope my logic is wrong, and it's not as bad as it seems...

ah so based on the release today the on-water amount includes ships in NZ that are moving between ports. Makes sense but jeez some poor communication/understanding if that’s the case… would mean we aren’t in a dire position yet.

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k1w1k1d

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#3474148 26-Mar-2026 18:29

Did our usual Thursday discount day fill up at the local NPD this afternoon. Site was very busy, more than usual.

Saw a few people filling up plastic containers. One guy had about 6 or 7 in the back of his business van. The woman ahead of us had five 4L containers. Must have a large lawn.

Reminds me our lawn mower container is nearly empty, so better fill it up.

gzt

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#3474157 26-Mar-2026 19:31

This afternoon's update is extremely reassuring:

"Willis also told MPs in the House that the Government’s goal was to “avoid ever getting to response phase three or four”. “These are envisaged in the national fuel plan as the point at which prioritisation of fuel would be required,” she said. “Our goal is to be doing enough to source the supply of fuel internationally that that does not become necessary, and by taking sufficient actions in response phases one and two, that we wouldn’t reach phase three and four.”

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-fuel-plan-nicola-willis-promises-no-overnight-alert-level-shift-ahead-of-friday-announcement/UOLQG2SCLFAO7OGDZLZVPMSQBQ/

cruxis

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#3474160 26-Mar-2026 19:58

I read the governments response as if refineries have product, and if we’re willing to pay a premium, we can probably secure enough supply to avoid rationing.

fastbike

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#3474200 27-Mar-2026 04:12

Newsroom has done an interesting analysis of fuel supplies, although published 24th, so may have changed. They name the ships and their current locations, which ports etc so you can get a sense of where the supply chain is under strain.

The annoying thing is that MBIE just give us vague numbers rather than opening up their dataset so interested parties can look through the political spin and start making contingency plans for the impending shortages.

This current administration are so far out of their depth and the bureaucracy is so timid that it is unbelievable.

Our just in time supply chain has become hand to mouth, which is beyond precarious as it relies on a continuous series of deliveries just to stay treading water.

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