2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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Ultimate Geek
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#3474207 27-Mar-2026 07:36

Newsroom really are on to it.

The muppets in MBIE should be paying attention.

A chart is worth a thousand words and don't get me started on the lack of transparency about tanker movements and definitions of what "in the country" and "on the water" mean. If it's not ready to pump into a vehicle it's not available.

And here are the tankers

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SaltyNZ

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#3474259 27-Mar-2026 08:26

fastbike:

Our just in time supply chain has become hand to mouth, which is beyond precarious as it relies on a continuous series of deliveries just to stay treading water.

Insert "always has been" meme. Anyone who works in telco could have told you it was a bad idea at any time. COVID showed the bean counters. No lessons were learned. Then we voted in a government who immediately put the pedal to the metal working tirelessly nonstop to exacerbate this situation.

Had they carried on with or expanded the previous government (and by that I mean even as far back as the Key National government) policies, we'd still be in the poo, but at least they would rightly be able to put hand on heart and say we were already doing everything we could to lessen the impact. But no: they have to wear this, 100%.

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johno1234

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#3474260 27-Mar-2026 08:37

Not has become. Always has been. The MSO legislation setting minimum storage levels was introduced in 2023. Prior to this there was no minimum.

cshwone

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#3474264 27-Mar-2026 09:01

Any chance of cutting the unecessary political bashing of either side of the spectrum out of this thread please.

gzt

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#3474281 27-Mar-2026 10:36

Here's the 10 miles high view everyone seems to be missing.

Hormuz situation means approximately 20%-25% of crude and refined product cannot reach the market. To some extent it is a flexible market meaning that to some extent you now have the same buyers competing for 75% of the volume. New Zealand is a first world country and can easily compete in that market for supply and delivery. That is one approach more or less the government have stated they will take. That is not entirely without logistics and relationships.

Luckily we have a government capable of some path smoothing here and there to achieve all that. You can argue about that in the appropriate NZ Luxon topic if you want to. There is a bigger picture where one of the worlds superpowers doesn't give a crap if it continues to destroy the standards of living for literally billions of people worldwide but that can be discussed in the Iran War topic. Iran has said anyone that is not bombing and asks nicely can transit their cargo through the strait.

HarmLessSolutions

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#3474340 27-Mar-2026 11:01

gzt: Here's the 10 miles high view everyone seems to be missing.

Hormuz situation means approximately 20%-25% of crude and refined product cannot reach the market. To some extent it is a flexible market meaning that to some extent you now have the same buyers competing for 75% of the volume. New Zealand is a first world country and can easily compete in that market for supply and delivery. That is the more or less approach the government have stated they will take. That is not entirely without logistics and relationships.

Luckily we have a government capable of some path smoothing here and there to achieve all that. You can argue about that in the appropriate NZ Luxon topic if you want to. There is a bigger picture where one of the worlds superpowers doesn't give a crap if it continues to destroy the standards of living for literally billions of people worldwide but that can be discussed in the Iran War topic

The 20% is a bit misleading as it refers to total global consumption of oil. There is a lot of that consumption that don't ship through the SoH being consumed within the country of origin (e.g. US, Scandinavia, Russia) or is not reliant on the SoH due to other shipping routes. The problem for NZ is that the refineries that supply our product are largely supplied crude from ME countries which is then shipped through the SoH. That has a far greater impact on our supplies than a 20% reduction.

The effect on LNG availability will also be severely impacted for what has been estimated as 5-10 years due to the extent of infrastructure damage in the Gulf.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

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gzt

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#3474341 27-Mar-2026 11:03

I agree. None of that is inconsistent with the above.

Benoire

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#3474342 27-Mar-2026 11:04

We are also competing with other similar countries for oil that is globally priced and reduced in volume - this means higher prices everywhere and those countries that are consuming oil from refineries that have reduced input will need to purchase from elsewhere at a greater cost so the costs can increase further due to demand... Is NZ able sustain a higher priced purchase compared to other countries?

cshwone

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#3474345 27-Mar-2026 11:12

One thing disturbing me is the Reserve Bank talking about possible OCR increases. This seems counter-intuitive to me as the inflation being caused by rising fuel prices is driven by the supply side, not the demand side. Would be placing hurt on hurt.

cddt

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#3474351 27-Mar-2026 11:29

cshwone:

One thing disturbing me is the Reserve Bank talking about possible OCR increases. This seems counter-intuitive to me as the inflation being caused by rising fuel prices is driven by the supply side, not the demand side. Would be placing hurt on hurt.

The problem is if the "second order" effects of inflation start to get baked in. Fuel cost increases, so all goods increase, so workers try to get higher wages, so prices increase again, etc. The rising fuel prices, if they cause a "one and done" increase in inflation, won't themselves require an increased OCR. the increased OCR is to deal with subsequent rounds of price rises which become circular.

SaltyNZ

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#3474353 27-Mar-2026 11:35

cddt:

cshwone:

One thing disturbing me is the Reserve Bank talking about possible OCR increases. This seems counter-intuitive to me as the inflation being caused by rising fuel prices is driven by the supply side, not the demand side. Would be placing hurt on hurt.

The problem is if the "second order" effects of inflation start to get baked in. Fuel cost increases, so all goods increase, so workers try to get higher wages, so prices increase again, etc. The rising fuel prices, if they cause a "one and done" increase in inflation, won't themselves require an increased OCR. the increased OCR is to deal with subsequent rounds of price rises which become circular.

On top of that, the RBNZ's hands are tied. By law they must contain inflation, and by law the only tool they are allowed to use is interest rates. So they can whistle past the graveyard for a little while but sooner or later - unless there is a law change - they will have to start raising rates as that is the only thing they're allowed to do in order to accomplish the job they are legally obliged to perform.

Beyond that we're back to politics again and would need to move the discussion to the other thread.

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mattwnz

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#3474361 27-Mar-2026 12:04

We also saw what happened when they looked through inflation during Covid. They missed the boat and it increased to over 7%.

boosacnoodle

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#3474365 27-Mar-2026 12:22

Announcement here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv7ZrNPES4Y

Check your tyre pressure, etc., campaign starts tomorrow. Fuel crisis solved, folks!

gzt

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#3474369 27-Mar-2026 12:25

gzt

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#3474397 27-Mar-2026 13:43

Apparently Helium, a consumable in medical MRI machines, comes from Qatar and the tap is closed:

"The United States-Israel war on Iran, and Tehran’s response, have disrupted about one-third of global supplies of helium, which is critical for medical uses such as MRI scans,"

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/26/helium-hitch-why-us-israel-war-on-iran-could-cause-mri-scan-delays

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