2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3475347 30-Mar-2026 07:03

Obraik:

I mean...we had that and it worked - we're seeing the benefits of it today with a good variety of used EVs on the market. But, the current governments propaganda on the scheme won.

Not as many as if we'd carried on ... but some, yes. In the end I didn't have too much trouble off-loading my MG.

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#3475353 30-Mar-2026 07:33

cddt:

johno1234:

100% correct on all points. Everybody is saying we need to reduce usage. Well, price signals are achieving exactly that - public transport utilisation has jumped, people are buying EVs and working from home.

I know of at least one company which has decided they want office staff to continue working from the office, rather than allow them to WFH, so is going to start paying all staff a fuel allowance.

I've asked our leadership team if they will allow more WFH in the current climate. We currently work 2 days from the office. The answer was "we haven't discussed it, but I guess we'll follow government direction if the alert level is raised". I'll ask again this week and I'll keep asking until they make a decision. No surprise that the majority of the leadership team drive EVs.

Benoire

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#3475356 30-Mar-2026 07:42

If we want a real management of fuel by commuters, any WFH needs to be mandated by the government as I do not believe big corporates will do it voluntary. My org, a large public road authority, has said that the current WFH position applies, even though we do most of our meetings on teams anyway and will only move to more WFH if the government tells them to... sure a large proportion of our staff use PT but increasing WFH won't really change the dynamic but would increase spots on seats for other people that need to work in the office.

nitro

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#3475389 30-Mar-2026 09:39

Benoire:

If we want a real management of fuel by commuters, any WFH needs to be mandated by the government as I do not believe big corporates will do it voluntary. My org, a large public road authority, has said that the current WFH position applies, even though we do most of our meetings on teams anyway and will only move to more WFH if the government tells them to... sure a large proportion of our staff use PT but increasing WFH won't really change the dynamic but would increase spots on seats for other people that need to work in the office.

It is #1 in the IEA's recommended Immediate actions to reduce demand.

fastbike

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#3475394 30-Mar-2026 09:52

nitro:

Benoire:

If we want a real management of fuel by commuters, any WFH needs to be mandated by the government as I do not believe big corporates will do it voluntary. My org, a large public road authority, has said that the current WFH position applies, even though we do most of our meetings on teams anyway and will only move to more WFH if the government tells them to... sure a large proportion of our staff use PT but increasing WFH won't really change the dynamic but would increase spots on seats for other people that need to work in the office.

It is #1 in the IEA's recommended Immediate actions to reduce demand.

I'm in an IT role for a public health provider. We are doing our normal WFH for 2 days and there has been no discussion on stepping this up. Unfortunately the government's messaging is just plain wrong so employers are not going to make the call.

Nathan Surendan has a good summary of how precarious things really are and notes that a framework with no allocations or numbers is not a plan - it is just a discussion that a plan is required.

The problem is that the government admitted it is “now consulting” on how to implement phases 3 and 4. They said they need “at least two weeks” to get the details right. They are building the lifeboat while the ship is taking on water.

Also it would be mainly petrol that would be saved by WFH initiatives, when it is diesel that runs the economy.

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Benoire

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#3475397 30-Mar-2026 09:55

I view WFH mandates as a way to smooth out the cost of living really; our issues will stem from diesel shortages rather than petrol and the impact on goods but if we had more people WFH, that would free up the roads for smoother truck journeys which will lead to efficiencies in goods movement and decreased fuel burn.

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tanivula

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#3475408 30-Mar-2026 10:19

Yep, WFH would primarily reduce Petrol demand. Which should allow us to bring in less petrol and more diesel (assuming they share capacity on a boat) and supply is not the limiting factor. Also a safe bet that converting petrol storage to diesel storage is far cheaper/faster than trying to build more diesel storage....

ezbee

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#3475417 30-Mar-2026 10:41

Another use for Diesel, and why vandalaise who knows.
There have been all sorts of things vandalised for scrap metal, its not far to go to sell it from there?
Though if you know, and have a bucket Diesel is a much more fluid currency.
There was also a telephone line cut.

Auckland power cable 'possibly' intentionally damaged, causes diesel leak
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/590992/auckland-power-cable-possibly-intentionally-damaged-causes-diesel-leak

""
Fire and Emergency have discovered that it is a power cable - not a fuel pipe - which has caused a diesel leak in South Auckland on Monday.

Three crews have been at the scene on Great South Road in the suburb of Manurewa since 6.30am on Monday morning.

Northpower helped Fire and Emergency to establish that it was a power cable with fuel insulation around it in order to cool it down.
""
He said it was unable to drain the pipe as that would damage the cable further, and cost the supplier millions of dollars.

Delfos understood that the initial damage was intentional.

He said the cable had been leaking since 3am, which had caused diesel to spill into the Papakura Stream.
""

SaltyNZ

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#3475427 30-Mar-2026 10:51

ezbee:

Another use for Diesel, and why vandalaise who knows.
There have been all sorts of things vandalised for scrap metal, its not far to go to sell it from there?
Though if you know, and have a bucket Diesel is a much more fluid currency.
There was also a telephone line cut so could be some other crazy reason.

Auckland power cable 'possibly' intentionally damaged, causes diesel leak
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/590992/auckland-power-cable-possibly-intentionally-damaged-causes-diesel-leak

""
Fire and Emergency have discovered that it is a power cable - not a fuel pipe - which has caused a diesel leak in South Auckland on Monday.

Three crews have been at the scene on Great South Road in the suburb of Manurewa since 6.30am on Monday morning.

Northpower helped Fire and Emergency to establish that it was a power cable with fuel insulation around it in order to cool it down.
""
He said it was unable to drain the pipe as that would damage the cable further, and cost the supplier millions of dollars.

Delfos understood that the initial damage was intentional.

He said the cable had been leaking since 3am, which had caused diesel to spill into the Papakura Stream.
""

Might have been unrelated to the fuel situation and been someone attempting to steal copper - until they noticed they were cutting into the diesel line. I've never heard of a power cable being cooled by fuel before. It seems ... counterintuitive... to cool something that might spark if damaged by a liquid that is designed to explode when mixed with oxygen and given a spark. I suppose diesel is less likely to kaboom than petrol, but still.

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geek3001

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#3475436 30-Mar-2026 11:01

SaltyNZ:

ezbee:

Another use for Diesel, and why vandalaise who knows.
There have been all sorts of things vandalised for scrap metal, its not far to go to sell it from there?
Though if you know, and have a bucket Diesel is a much more fluid currency.
There was also a telephone line cut so could be some other crazy reason.

Auckland power cable 'possibly' intentionally damaged, causes diesel leak
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/590992/auckland-power-cable-possibly-intentionally-damaged-causes-diesel-leak

""
Fire and Emergency have discovered that it is a power cable - not a fuel pipe - which has caused a diesel leak in South Auckland on Monday.

Three crews have been at the scene on Great South Road in the suburb of Manurewa since 6.30am on Monday morning.

Northpower helped Fire and Emergency to establish that it was a power cable with fuel insulation around it in order to cool it down.
""
He said it was unable to drain the pipe as that would damage the cable further, and cost the supplier millions of dollars.

Delfos understood that the initial damage was intentional.

He said the cable had been leaking since 3am, which had caused diesel to spill into the Papakura Stream.
""

Might have been unrelated to the fuel situation and been someone attempting to steal copper - until they noticed they were cutting into the diesel line. I've never heard of a power cable being cooled by fuel before. It seems ... counterintuitive... to cool something that might spark if damaged by a liquid that is designed to explode when mixed with oxygen and given a spark. I suppose diesel is less likely to kaboom than petrol, but still.

If this is an electrical power cable, with coolant fluid of some sort, surely that fluid would be electrically-rated oil / fluid like you find in a transformer, not petrol or diesel motor fuel?

This seems like wonky reporting!

Scott3

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#3475439 30-Mar-2026 11:04

ezbee:

Another use for Diesel, and why vandalaise who knows.
There have been all sorts of things vandalised for scrap metal, its not far to go to sell it from there?
Though if you know, and have a bucket Diesel is a much more fluid currency.
There was also a telephone line cut.

Auckland power cable 'possibly' intentionally damaged, causes diesel leak
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/590992/auckland-power-cable-possibly-intentionally-damaged-causes-diesel-leak

""
Fire and Emergency have discovered that it is a power cable - not a fuel pipe - which has caused a diesel leak in South Auckland on Monday.

Three crews have been at the scene on Great South Road in the suburb of Manurewa since 6.30am on Monday morning.

Northpower helped Fire and Emergency to establish that it was a power cable with fuel insulation around it in order to cool it down.
""
He said it was unable to drain the pipe as that would damage the cable further, and cost the supplier millions of dollars.

Delfos understood that the initial damage was intentional.

He said the cable had been leaking since 3am, which had caused diesel to spill into the Papakura Stream.
""

Suspect this is a reference to the oil filled cables, that somebody has confused with diesel at some point along the way.

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Scott3

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#3475440 30-Mar-2026 11:05

PolicyGuy:

Handle9:

Reducing the price of fuel in a supply crisis is absolutely the wrong move. It breaks the supply and demand relationship.

You can't subsidise your way out of a supply shortage.

True, but the government has been all over the media telling us not to panic, everything is fine, there's no shortage, "trust us we know what we're doing".
Hmmm

On the other had, the government is taking a huge unplanned bonus windfall from vastly increased GST take, particularly on diesel.
I think it would be fair to reduce the excise on diesel & maybe petrol so that the nett of (fuel excise + GST) provides much less of a windfall. Just to make the numbers clear, if diesel was $1.50 there was 19.6 cents/litre of GST in there: at $3.00, it's 39.1 cents/litre, so the government could afford to reduce the excise by at least 10 c/litre whilst still taking some extra margin. Maybe the figures and the excise could be adjusted monthly.
If the government was even a little bit transparent on this, it would probably do wonders for their approval ratings, as otherwise it is it's eventually going to seep into the mass & social media that the government is ripping us off my pocketing great wads of extra GST.

My understanding is that Government tax take decreases as fuel prices increase.

Sure there is a windfall of GST on fuel, but other fuel related taxes charged per liter (or per km) decrease due to elasticity effects. Also spending elsewhere in the economy dramatically declines when spending on fuel increases.

nitro

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#3475442 30-Mar-2026 11:12

tanivula:

Yep, WFH would primarily reduce Petrol demand. Which should allow us to bring in less petrol and more diesel (assuming they share capacity on a boat) and supply is not the limiting factor. Also a safe bet that converting petrol storage to diesel storage is far cheaper/faster than trying to build more diesel storage....

oil supply contracts having been based on normal consumption, i am unsure of how easy it would be to make changes favouring more diesel. suppliers would also be refining based on those contracts. however, getting petrol cars off the road would make travel more economical for those that have to be on the road - public transport, as well as those used for delivering commodities.

of course, those who can, and would, work from home will appreciate the relief of not having to spend as much at the pump.

wellygary

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#3475444 30-Mar-2026 11:18

Scott3:

My understanding is that Government tax take decreases as fuel prices increase.

Sure there is a windfall of GST on fuel, but other fuel related taxes charged per liter (or per km) decrease due to elasticity effects. Also spending elsewhere in the economy dramatically declines when spending on fuel increases.

Only if demand falls,

Currently that doesn't appear to be the case ( although there are comments that Kms travelled might be lower.).. but so far we've seen no hard eveidence of this...

At the moment the govt's GST take on fuel is probably up by 60-100% depending on the fuel mix..

wellygary

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#3475445 30-Mar-2026 11:22

tanivula:

Yep, WFH would primarily reduce Petrol demand. Which should allow us to bring in less petrol and more diesel (assuming they share capacity on a boat) and supply is not the limiting factor. Also a safe bet that converting petrol storage to diesel storage is far cheaper/faster than trying to build more diesel storage....

This whole schnozzle is predicated on Supply BEING the LIMITING FACTOR... which is why WFH's only real impact is to save commuters petrol money.

.. and TBH if they are in the main metros (where most WFH opportunities are) they will likely be looking already to find ways to use PT or carpool whatever.. people don't need to be told how to save money ....

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