2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › 2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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1970 posts

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#3475519 30-Mar-2026 13:30

Another confirmation from a friend, his company is giving all employees $100 / month to continue commuting to the office every day!

cddt

1970 posts

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#3475543 30-Mar-2026 14:02

Scott3:

My understanding is that Government tax take decreases as fuel prices increase.

Sure there is a windfall of GST on fuel, but other fuel related taxes charged per liter (or per km) decrease due to elasticity effects. Also spending elsewhere in the economy dramatically declines when spending on fuel increases.

Except for the fact that petrol has very low elasticity, and diesel even less.

Nate001

677 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 465

#3475544 30-Mar-2026 14:14

Our company has worked hard to mandate 4 days a week in the office over the past 2 years. They are not willing to let that slip.

fastbike

448 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 321

#3475548 30-Mar-2026 14:30

cddt:

Scott3:

My understanding is that Government tax take decreases as fuel prices increase.

Sure there is a windfall of GST on fuel, but other fuel related taxes charged per liter (or per km) decrease due to elasticity effects. Also spending elsewhere in the economy dramatically declines when spending on fuel increases.

Except for the fact that petrol has very low elasticity, and diesel even less.

That's not what official stats are showing (quote below from Bishop hat tip Greater Auckland)

https://www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/fuel-response-monitoring-dashboard

Comparing the two weeks pre-conflict in mid-February against 7-day rolling averages for subsequent weeks, we have seen a reduction of approximately 20% in the vehicle kilometres travelled by cars. Not necessarily surprising when petrol prices have gone up 30%.

Otautahi Christchurch

fastbike

448 posts

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+1 received by user: 321

#3475549 30-Mar-2026 14:31

cddt:

Another confirmation from a friend, his company is giving all employees $100 / month to continue commuting to the office every day!

What a stoopid idea !

Otautahi Christchurch

wellygary

8813 posts

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#3475550 30-Mar-2026 14:34

cddt:

Except for the fact that petrol has very low elasticity, and diesel even less.

Yeah this is the Big Kicker,

Keeping office workers at home has little to no impact on Diesel supplies for Trucks and Agricultural use..Diesel runs the economy and the only was to lower diesel consumption is to crush the economy with a level 4 EVERYONE stay home restriction

From COVID

"At level 3, when there were still recommended stay-at-home orders, but much of the manufacturing, construction and agriculture workforces returned, petrol demand was 45-55% of usual consumption, but diesel was still at 80-90%."

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johno1234

3357 posts

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#3475556 30-Mar-2026 14:47

Meanwhile:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/all-eyes-on-diesel-as-government-set-to-release-fuel-update-christopher-luxon-says-stocks-are-in-good-shape/NJ5QGNVEPRHW7L6ZPIMH5URYDA/

SaltyNZ

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2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3475558 30-Mar-2026 14:52

Isn't that "rise" because for some reason MBIE didn't previously count ships that were at port and in the process of offloading?

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

johno1234

3357 posts

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#3475612 30-Mar-2026 15:05

SaltyNZ:

Isn't that "rise" because for some reason MBIE didn't previously count ships that were at port and in the process of offloading?

Who can say with these guys?

The article says "The increase is likely to come from a significant offloading of fuel in the country last week" but they'd already corrected the error of excluding vessels in the process of unloading and the model was always supposed to account for vessels on their way to NZ. Therefore the only things that should increase the supply are additional vessels being loaded or a downward revision of forecast consumption...

SaltyNZ

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2degrees

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#3475616 30-Mar-2026 15:15

Can't complain too much though. It's probably not something they've had to watch this closely ever before, at least since the 70s, so they would be still just figuring out where they can get the data from.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

HarmLessSolutions

1230 posts

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#3475625 30-Mar-2026 15:29

SaltyNZ:

Can't complain too much though. It's probably not something they've had to watch this closely ever before, at least since the 70s, so they would be still just figuring out where they can get the data from.

And they will well aware following the botched info they came out with last week that if they don't get it right they will be taken to task over it.

My stepson works in the gas sector here in Taranaki and the guff that MPs have been telling the public is well off reality in his industry so they need to up their game over this high exposure event in that regard.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

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cddt

1970 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1905

#3475628 30-Mar-2026 15:33

fastbike:

That's not what official stats are showing (quote below from Bishop hat tip Greater Auckland)

https://www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/fuel-response-monitoring-dashboard

Comparing the two weeks pre-conflict in mid-February against 7-day rolling averages for subsequent weeks, we have seen a reduction of approximately 20% in the vehicle kilometres travelled by cars. Not necessarily surprising when petrol prices have gone up 30%.

Interesting. The linked dashboard shows a decrease of 10.7%. It will be interesting to see if this is a) sustained as people get used to the new prices and reorganise their budgets and b) reflected in other data sources (e.g. ANZ Truckometer).

dafman

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#3475660 30-Mar-2026 16:01

Aussies halving fuel tax for three months to lower price.

HarmLessSolutions

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#3475661 30-Mar-2026 16:06

dafman:

Aussies halving fuel tax for three months to lower price.

Full details of the Aussie relief package here.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

fastbike

448 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 321

#3475670 30-Mar-2026 16:30

dafman:

Aussies halving fuel tax for three months to lower price.

So apparently feebates for EV purchases are bad - but subsidies for petrol and diesel are not.

This also reduces incentives to use less fuel so is counter productive in so many ways.

Otautahi Christchurch

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