2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3475916 31-Mar-2026 10:58

johno1234:

I disliked the subsidy for the reason that it transferred tax paid by workers to better paid people to fund them into flash cars that those workers could not afford. However I don't blame anyone who could afford it for taking up the free money. To not take it up would be stupid.

This. It's all moot now, but perhaps the price threshold should have been a lot lower (halved?) so it targeted the more entry level EVs where the subsidy was more likely to actually make the difference between purchasing or not, rather than also providing taxpayer subsidies to people who could afford to buy $80,000 cars.

tstone

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#3475929 31-Mar-2026 11:38

ezbee:

There is public transport, needing more investment as Australia shows.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-31/vline-overcrowding-fears-free-transport-victoria/106509860

""
From today, Victorians will not have to pay to travel on public transport as part of a state government initiative to help households grappling with rising fuel prices.
""

Some time back construction and trucking made submissions to Auckland that the almost all day long rush hour was creating huge cost in fuel grinding through traffic. Loss of productivity from trucks making fewer trips, slowing deliveries to major construction projects etc.

More public transport used by more as its low cost would save diesel and fuel for everyone else that has no choice.

For rural areas a larger stockpile of diesel that lasts longer, and maybe return of the school bus may also directly help them.

You save a bit here and a bit there, some carpooling, some work from home, alternative for school drop-offs, get a bit more long-distance freight on electric trains etc. Make sure public transport is fully utilized.

Oh how I wish Auckland had public transport that went to and from where I work...

SaltyNZ

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#3475930 31-Mar-2026 11:40

tstone:

Oh how I wish Auckland had public transport that went to and from where I work...

Yeah we have a minimum 10 minute drive to Warkworth (away from work, where there are only like 10 car parks anyway), or 20 minutes to Silverdale. And that's better than a lot of people.

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CokemonZ

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#3475948 31-Mar-2026 12:46

SaltyNZ:

tstone:

Oh how I wish Auckland had public transport that went to and from where I work...

Yeah we have a minimum 10 minute drive to Warkworth (away from work, where there are only like 10 car parks anyway), or 20 minutes to Silverdale. And that's better than a lot of people.

It's pretty wild - I live in Birkenhead, and work in Mt Wellington.

If I manage to catch every bus and train perfectly, it will take 1 hour and 3 minutes - not far off a car ride - 50 - 1:20 depending on traffic.

As I have actually experienced it, Typically 1:30 to 1:45, largely due to bus/train connections not being perfect. There is also a 1.5k walk or a short bus in there. sometimes do the walk, sometimes the bus.

$6.50 each way for 20ks. Not terrible, not great, and basically on par with a petrol car (excl insurance, maintenance etc). etc

I have a leaf, so thats my mode of choice 95% of the time.

If it came down to $4 each way......that might actually change my mind.

jonb

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#3475951 31-Mar-2026 12:59

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/30/australia-jet-fuel-crisis-south-korea-china-restrictions

I know we have flagged this already in this thread, but some mainstream media reporting the same. Think would be sensible to start restricting domestic and some trans-tasman services to make the jet fuel reserves last longer given the uncertainty of future supply.

SaltyNZ

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#3475953 31-Mar-2026 13:11

CokemonZ:

It's pretty wild - I live in Birkenhead, and work in Mt Wellington.

If I manage to catch every bus and train perfectly, it will take 1 hour and 3 minutes - not far off a car ride - 50 - 1:20 depending on traffic.

As I have actually experienced it, Typically 1:30 to 1:45, largely due to bus/train connections not being perfect. There is also a 1.5k walk or a short bus in there. sometimes do the walk, sometimes the bus.

$6.50 each way for 20ks. Not terrible, not great, and basically on par with a petrol car (excl insurance, maintenance etc). etc

I have a leaf, so thats my mode of choice 95% of the time.

If it came down to $4 each way......that might actually change my mind.

Leaving aside the current crisis the stupidest thing about it is that because my wife and I work in buildings basically across the street from each other, it's cheaper for us to drive all the way to work and park for probably about $17 all up including $14 parking, electricity & RUCs, than it is to drive 1/3 to 1/2 half way there anyway and then catch the bus for $15 each.

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SaltyNZ

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#3475954 31-Mar-2026 13:13

...And we will never compromise our principles, unless it will save a bit of money.

Asked by the Herald whether fuel importers had asked the Government to publicly give them the thumbs up to buy fuel with Russian origins, Resources Minister Shane Jones didn’t answer the question, but highlighted the fact New Zealand wouldn’t consider fuel to be “Russian” if it was refined elsewhere.

“As the Prime Minister has said, it’s product that’s coming from a refinery, but it’s not Russian,” Jones said.

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johno1234

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#3475956 31-Mar-2026 13:16

jonb:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/30/australia-jet-fuel-crisis-south-korea-china-restrictions

I know we have flagged this already in this thread, but some mainstream media reporting the same. Think would be sensible to start restricting domestic and some trans-tasman services to make the jet fuel reserves last longer given the uncertainty of future supply.

Only if they are not currently constrained on storage. If storage is currently full or near full then restrictions would cause problems rather than solving them. I think all classes of fuels have mandated storage minimums that are currently being adhered to.

johno1234

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#3475957 31-Mar-2026 13:17

SaltyNZ:

Leaving aside the current crisis the stupidest thing about it is that because my wife and I work in buildings basically across the street from each other, it's cheaper for us to drive all the way to work and park for probably about $17 all up including $14 parking, electricity & RUCs, than it is to drive 1/3 to 1/2 half way there anyway and then catch the bus for $15 each.

As car sharers you are miles ahead of the average.

Scott3

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#3475958 31-Mar-2026 13:22

The Ministry of Transport has produced a good dashboard:

https://www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/fuel-response-monitoring-dashboard

https://hormuz-458b0b.gitlab.io/

On elasticity effects, we can clearly see a decrease in Commercial (combined light & Heavy) distance (VKT) traveled as fuel prices have increased. -12.1%. I am suppressed it is so large. Suggest personal use will be more elastic than this.

Auckland bus + train + ferry patronage is up 11.7%.

Wellington Bus + rail is up 17.7%

Aviation departures is down 2.7%.

----------

On the MBIE reporting yesterday, they have again changed the format.

In general I don't mind the new format. My take is once fuel tankers are our EEZ, we can insist (with help of our military) that it be delivered. Anything outside of our EEZ could potentially be recalled.

Data makes it seem pretty clear we don't need to immediately Panic on this one. Government can just watch the ships leaving the refineries in Asia, and their progress towards NZ. If this flow stops, we can then start the panic response, while we still have 3+ weeks of fuel on hand.

kiwikurt

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#3475959 31-Mar-2026 13:24

CokemonZ:

SaltyNZ:

tstone:

Oh how I wish Auckland had public transport that went to and from where I work...

Yeah we have a minimum 10 minute drive to Warkworth (away from work, where there are only like 10 car parks anyway), or 20 minutes to Silverdale. And that's better than a lot of people.

It's pretty wild - I live in Birkenhead, and work in Mt Wellington.

If I manage to catch every bus and train perfectly, it will take 1 hour and 3 minutes - not far off a car ride - 50 - 1:20 depending on traffic.

As I have actually experienced it, Typically 1:30 to 1:45, largely due to bus/train connections not being perfect. There is also a 1.5k walk or a short bus in there. sometimes do the walk, sometimes the bus.

$6.50 each way for 20ks. Not terrible, not great, and basically on par with a petrol car (excl insurance, maintenance etc). etc

I have a leaf, so thats my mode of choice 95% of the time.

If it came down to $4 each way......that might actually change my mind.

I've cut out a lot of short trips. Doing as many of the school runs as possible on the bus. But for work I need to get from Mt Wellington to the Airport - 1:10 bus-train-bus. There are parts of the Auckland PT network that are great and I'm a massive proponent of public transport but that vs 20 mins in the car isn't workable, which sucks.

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#3475972 31-Mar-2026 13:37

Scott3:

The Ministry of Transport has produced a good dashboard:

https://www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/fuel-response-monitoring-dashboard

https://hormuz-458b0b.gitlab.io/

On elasticity effects, we can clearly see a decrease in Commercial (combined light & Heavy) distance (VKT) traveled as fuel prices have increased. -12.1%. I am suppressed it is so large. Suggest personal use will be more elastic than this.

Auckland bus + train + ferry patronage is up 11.7%.

Wellington Bus + rail is up 17.7%

Aviation departures is down 2.7%.

Not sure what to believe at this stage... https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mrjohnlewis_with-fuel-prices-up-dramatically-i-wanted-share-7444461008783446016-LWFH "Traffic counts consistent YoY"

jonb

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#3475975 31-Mar-2026 13:47

kiwikurt:

I've cut out a lot of short trips. Doing as many of the school runs as possible on the bus. But for work I need to get from Mt Wellington to the Airport - 1:10 bus-train-bus. There are parts of the Auckland PT network that are great and I'm a massive proponent of public transport but that vs 20 mins in the car isn't workable, which sucks.

Similar to me but working from home already in small town. My Diesel light vehicle (ute sized SUV) tank is half full of a mix of $1.60 and $2.20 diesel. Riding my bike or walking for half of my previous round town errand trips, and just not going on long drives like a day out tramping which would be 100km+each way. Given up on even bothering with Gaspy to save 10c a litre on next fill up as whats the point.
My ski season pass have bought for last couple seasons is $430 for Mt Dobson, but living a 2.5hr drive away makes the economics of 10x days out change somewhat - may still do it but is now cheaper to stay overnight at Fairlie for a couple nights. Would guess lots of other people have similar demand reducing scenarios for non-essential travel.

geoffwnz

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#3475977 31-Mar-2026 14:02

Yep, entered a 4 round trail half marathon series around the central North Island late last year.

First round was a couple of weeks ago. Subsequent rounds are every couple of months. Commuting to them from Wellington. Now having to give serious consideration to potentially not attending some or all the remaining rounds. There are at least two of us going up for each round though so can share costs, but still.

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#3475978 31-Mar-2026 14:05

SaltyNZ:

...And we will never compromise our principles, unless it will save a bit of money.

Asked by the Herald whether fuel importers had asked the Government to publicly give them the thumbs up to buy fuel with Russian origins, Resources Minister Shane Jones didn’t answer the question, but highlighted the fact New Zealand wouldn’t consider fuel to be “Russian” if it was refined elsewhere. “As the Prime Minister has said, it’s product that’s coming from a refinery, but it’s not Russian,” Jones said.

we shouldn't buy American products too ? or saudi fuel? where does it stop

in today's world there are no good guys, only capitalists

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