2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3476017 31-Mar-2026 14:16

geoffwnz:

Yep, entered a 4 round trail half marathon series around the central North Island late last year.

First round was a couple of weeks ago. Subsequent rounds are every couple of months. Commuting to them from Wellington. Now having to give serious consideration to potentially not attending some or all the remaining rounds. There are at least two of us going up for each round though so can share costs, but still.

We have a family wedding to attend at Anzac with guests travelling from throughout the country. The groom's parents are only seeing the potential extra fuel expense as an issue but I fully expect we will be seeing fuel rationing by then so the guest list may well reduce markedly. I feel sorry for the couple as they will be making some tough calls on catering numbers and venue bookings.

As an EV owner we can make the ~8 hour journey (each way) regardless but many won't have this ability.

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mattwnz

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#3476065 31-Mar-2026 14:22

SaltyNZ:

CokemonZ:

It's pretty wild - I live in Birkenhead, and work in Mt Wellington.

If I manage to catch every bus and train perfectly, it will take 1 hour and 3 minutes - not far off a car ride - 50 - 1:20 depending on traffic.

As I have actually experienced it, Typically 1:30 to 1:45, largely due to bus/train connections not being perfect. There is also a 1.5k walk or a short bus in there. sometimes do the walk, sometimes the bus.

$6.50 each way for 20ks. Not terrible, not great, and basically on par with a petrol car (excl insurance, maintenance etc). etc

I have a leaf, so thats my mode of choice 95% of the time.

If it came down to $4 each way......that might actually change my mind.

Leaving aside the current crisis the stupidest thing about it is that because my wife and I work in buildings basically across the street from each other, it's cheaper for us to drive all the way to work and park for probably about $17 all up including $14 parking, electricity & RUCs, than it is to drive 1/3 to 1/2 half way there anyway and then catch the bus for $15 each.

Much public transport in NZ of way overpriced imo. One of the main selling points of it is that it is supposed to be cheaper then driving. NZ needs to follow other countries during this crisis and make it free.

Handle9

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#3476066 31-Mar-2026 14:23

mattwnz:

Interesting to hear that Japan are freezing retail prices as a reaction to this. I wonder if they could do that in NZ. We face huge inflation coming up as the government now has new inflation figures which they choosing not to suppply to the public

The government don't have "new inflation flgures." They have some guestimates from treasury but they aren't worth the paper they are printed on.

Published inflation figures are backwards looking,

Freezing prices is paying for todays problems tomorrow, not solving any problem. If you freeze prices you significantly increase the chances of rationing being needed. It's a crazy idea.

MikeAqua

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#3476069 31-Mar-2026 14:28

SaltyNZ:

One thing I haven't heard anyone discuss is bunker fuel. Do NZ-bound ships refuel here, or do they tend to fuel up for the return trip where they leave from? Is there a shortage of bunker fuel? It might be less of an issue due it being the sludgy rubbish that's left over from everything else so there are potentially more sources of it. But I don't know.

There is bunker fuel available form major ports e.g. Tauranga. We used to have a couple of specialist bunkering ships. One has been parked at the Miramar wharf for months. So I assume that service is no longer operating.

Mike

geoffwnz

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#3476070 31-Mar-2026 14:29

mattwnz:

SaltyNZ:

Leaving aside the current crisis the stupidest thing about it is that because my wife and I work in buildings basically across the street from each other, it's cheaper for us to drive all the way to work and park for probably about $17 all up including $14 parking, electricity & RUCs, than it is to drive 1/3 to 1/2 half way there anyway and then catch the bus for $15 each.

Much public transport in NZ of way overpriced imo. One of the main selling points of it is that it is supposed to be cheaper then driving. NZ needs to follow other countries during this crisis and make it free.

At best for a single person commute, you might break even on public transport vs car. But as soon as you add even one extra person into the car to share costs, it tends to end up cheaper by car. However, the vast majority of commuter vehicles are single occupant.

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mattwnz

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#3476071 31-Mar-2026 14:29

johno1234:

I disliked the subsidy for the reason that it transferred tax paid by workers to better paid people to fund them into flash cars that those workers could not afford. However I don't blame anyone who could afford it for taking up the free money. To not take it up would be stupid.

But people used it as a reason to buy one and the argument was that yes, high income earners would likely be the main buyers, but those cars would eventually filter into the second hand market for lower income people to buy. What the current government did was double down on making EVs a less attractive option and to also decrease or delay growing load on power generation capacity. The EV sales dropped through the floor and it put us years behind in moving away from fossil fuels.

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gzt

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#3476073 31-Mar-2026 14:42

@CokemonZ: $6.50 each way for 20ks. Not terrible, not great, and basically on par with a petrol car (excl insurance, maintenance etc). etc
I have a leaf, so thats my mode of choice 95% of the time.
If it came down to $4 each way......that might actually change my mind.

AT Hop caps at $50 for a 7 day period. Pretty close, and on target if a weekend ride is convenient now and then.

gzt

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#3476075 31-Mar-2026 14:44

jonb:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/30/australia-jet-fuel-crisis-south-korea-china-restrictions
I know we have flagged this already in this thread, but some mainstream media reporting the same. Think would be sensible to start restricting domestic and some trans-tasman services to make the jet fuel reserves last longer given the uncertainty of future supply.

I believe inbound travel has dropped significantly. That will do some of the job.

SaltyNZ

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#3476076 31-Mar-2026 14:59

Batman:

SaltyNZ:

...And we will never compromise our principles, unless it will save a bit of money.

Asked by the Herald whether fuel importers had asked the Government to publicly give them the thumbs up to buy fuel with Russian origins, Resources Minister Shane Jones didn’t answer the question, but highlighted the fact New Zealand wouldn’t consider fuel to be “Russian” if it was refined elsewhere. “As the Prime Minister has said, it’s product that’s coming from a refinery, but it’s not Russian,” Jones said.

we shouldn't buy American products too ? or saudi fuel? where does it stop

in today's world there are no good guys, only capitalists

Fair, I suppose. Especially since the US is now unapologetically killing civilians. Still ... it isn't great that we sanction Russia for an illegal war and then turn around and say all is forgiven just because prices have gone up. They're not principles if you give them up that easily.

Having said that - not buying Saudi crown prince Boney McBonesaw's oil is one good thing about having an EV.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

SaltyNZ

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#3476078 31-Mar-2026 15:01

Handle9:

mattwnz:

Interesting to hear that Japan are freezing retail prices as a reaction to this. I wonder if they could do that in NZ. We face huge inflation coming up as the government now has new inflation figures which they choosing not to suppply to the public

The government don't have "new inflation flgures." They have some guestimates from treasury but they aren't worth the paper they are printed on.

Published inflation figures are backwards looking,

Freezing prices is paying for todays problems tomorrow, not solving any problem. If you freeze prices you significantly increase the chances of rationing being needed. It's a crazy idea.

Yeah, 100%. We need to address this without just lowering prices, but all the good alternatives have been systematically kneecapped for the last 2.5 years. And they were barely getting started before that.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

kingdragonfly

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#3476086 31-Mar-2026 15:18

Australia top of this video

Strait of Hormuz Update 30 March
Is Australia Running Out of Petrol?
Where are Trump's Tankers?

What's Going on With Shipping?

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MikeAqua

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#3476138 31-Mar-2026 15:34

I looked into using the Blenheim bus on rainy days. According to the publicly available info there is bus stop close enough to my house and it drops of close enough to my work. Unfortunately, the first bus leaves the stop near me at 9:13am and takes 25 minutes.

So..... I'm walking 30 minutes on dry days (most days in Blenheim) and driving our smallest vehicle on wet days.

Mike

wellygary

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#3476143 31-Mar-2026 15:49

gzt:
jonb:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/30/australia-jet-fuel-crisis-south-korea-china-restrictions

I know we have flagged this already in this thread, but some mainstream media reporting the same. Think would be sensible to start restricting domestic and some trans-tasman services to make the jet fuel reserves last longer given the uncertainty of future supply.

I believe inbound travel has dropped significantly. That will do some of the job.

Weekly border crossing arrivals are tracking pretty much in line with the last few years...

https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/international-travel-provisional/

Batman

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#3476147 31-Mar-2026 16:01

kingdragonfly: Australia top of this video

Strait of Hormuz Update 30 March
Is Australia Running Out of Petrol?
Where are Trump's Tankers?

What's Going on With Shipping?

they have since bought emergency oil from the US, already on route. not sure if that's enough, but they will find more oil. plenty of oil for sale from Russia too i think.

kangaroo13

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#3476204 31-Mar-2026 16:45

Batman:

kingdragonfly: Australia top of this video

Strait of Hormuz Update 30 March
Is Australia Running Out of Petrol?
Where are Trump's Tankers?

What's Going on With Shipping?

they have since bought emergency oil from the US, already on route. not sure if that's enough, but they will find more oil. plenty of oil for sale from Russia too i think.

So - Australia is now buying oil from the USA and Trump's buddies. Meanwhile, Trump has said he may finish the attacks on Iran without the Strait of Hormuz being re-opened as a condition, and if he can't then find an easy diplomatic solution then leave it up to the Gulf and Euro "allies" to re-open the Strait. So - who stands to gain most selling into a constrained market with inflated prices I wonder?

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