2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › 2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

1 | ... | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | ... | 64

2878 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 681

#3476250 31-Mar-2026 16:53

kangaroo13:

So - Australia is now buying oil from the USA and Trump's buddies. Meanwhile, Trump has said he may finish the attacks on Iran without the Strait of Hormuz being re-opened as a condition, and if he can't then find an easy diplomatic solution then leave it up to the Gulf and Euro "allies" to re-open the Strait. So - who stands to gain most selling into a constrained market with inflated prices I wonder?

Russia looks to be stopping exports shortly due to the Ukraine attacks on their refineries... so that will add more to the mix given that some of that oil was heading to other BRICs aligned entities.

CokemonZ

1106 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 313

#3476252 31-Mar-2026 17:06

gzt:
@CokemonZ: $6.50 each way for 20ks. Not terrible, not great, and basically on par with a petrol car (excl insurance, maintenance etc). etc

I have a leaf, so thats my mode of choice 95% of the time.

If it came down to $4 each way......that might actually change my mind.

AT Hop caps at $50 for a 7 day period. Pretty close, and on target if a weekend ride is convenient now and then.

You know you're not wrong - I hadn't considered that.

Secretly my hope is that traffic dies down enough that I can leave at 7:30am and be at work by 8:05 in the leaf, rather than 7:30 to 8:45

Don't actually mind the bus/train - can get a bit of work and reading done.

Just the inconsistency and lack of flexibility. When I have a well planned day I'll do it, but if it's a bit ad-hoc, nah doesnt work.

HarmLessSolutions

1230 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 812

Subscriber

#3476253 31-Mar-2026 17:06

Interesting chart pulled off of Bluesky. Source as per the footnote I guess. Looks like the run out will start late April.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

elpenguino

3577 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2939

#3476255 31-Mar-2026 17:11

Batman:

they have since bought emergency oil from the US, already on route. not sure if that's enough, but they will find more oil. plenty of oil for sale from Russia too i think.

Ukrainian 'sanctions' are limiting exports of Russian oil.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qdwpnwzwpo

"Recent data shows no ships were loaded with oil in any of Russia's three Baltic ports on 26 and 27 March, which Crea said is the first period of two consecutive days with no such activity since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Satellite images show enormous plumes of smoke rising from burning oil facilities in Primorsk on 24 March, as well as fires at Ust-Luga and extensive damage to Kirishi on 27 March."

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

wellygary

8813 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5297

#3476256 31-Mar-2026 17:13

kangaroo13:

Trump has said he may finish the attacks on Iran without the Strait of Hormuz being re-opened as a condition, and if he can't then find an easy diplomatic solution then leave it up to the Gulf and Euro "allies" to re-open the Strait. So - who stands to gain most selling into a constrained market with inflated prices I wonder?

If trump stopped the attacks on Iran and US forces headed home, there is no reason that the strait would stay closed,

Closing an international waterway with no hostiles occurring would simply embolden other countries to do the same in retaliation,

Iranian Tankers heading to China have to transit through the Strait of Malacca and past Singapore, can't see Singapore being happy to let tankers past if theirs are being stopped in Hormuz...

Handle9

11927 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9682

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3476258 31-Mar-2026 17:24

wellygary:

If trump stopped the attacks on Iran and US forces headed home, there is no reason that the strait would stay closed,

The reason Iran would keep Hormuz closed is to secure a longer term solution. Israel attacked Iran last year for 12 days and have made signals that even if this ends they want to come back and go again in the future.

This needs to end with a solution and not drag on for years.

Dell

Shop now for Dell laptops and other devices (affiliate link).

Scott3

4177 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2990

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3476259 31-Mar-2026 17:29

wellygary:

If trump stopped the attacks on Iran and US forces headed home, there is no reason that the strait would stay closed,

Closing an international waterway with no hostiles occurring would simply embolden other countries to do the same in retaliation,

Iranian Tankers heading to China have to transit through the Strait of Malacca and past Singapore, can't see Singapore being happy to let tankers past if theirs are being stopped in Hormuz...

I don't think it will be that easy.

“Iran will end the war at a time of its own choosing and only if the conditions it has set are fulfilled. It will not allow Trump to determine the timing of the war’s end,”

Iran's Five Key Demands (March 2026)

Immediate halt to all aggression: Complete US/Israeli ceasefire across all fronts, including no further airstrikes or assassinations of Iranian leadership/officials.
War reparations/compensation: Financial payments from the US/Israel for damages to nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and civilian losses from the strikes.
Guarantees against future attacks: Binding commitments (possibly UN-backed) prohibiting future military action against Iran, plus withdrawal of US forces from the Gulf/Iraq.
Full lifting of sanctions: Immediate removal of all US/EU/UN sanctions on Iran, including the "snapback" mechanism.
Sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz: Formal recognition of Iran's legal authority and control over the Strait (e.g. new transit framework, potential passage fees), with Iran deciding passage rules.

After Midnight Hammer in June 2025 & Epic Fury now, it seems that Iran doesn't want to end this war in a way that allows the US to conduct air strikes whenever they want. Obviously many of the above terms won't be palatable to Israel / the US.

Scott3

4177 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2990

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3476263 31-Mar-2026 17:39

"Trump tells aides he is willing to end Iran war without reopening Hormuz, WSJ reports"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-tells-aides-willing-end-012432302.html

Would be very messy.

I suspect Iran would keep Hormuz closed, other than a Toll system they operate. Likely dropping all the friendly nation stuff, and just charging per ship size.

Would give them money to rebuild.

Toll would likely be finically viable for ship operators, but many would be concerned about the moral hazard of paying such a toll. Many will not want to precedent of tolling international waterways...

gzt

18687 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 7827

Lifetime subscriber

#3476267 31-Mar-2026 18:05

A fee is not unprecedented. Türkiye charges USD$5.83 per ton transit into the Black Sea:

https://english.news.cn/20250616/5f7df97a86fb49449c16b5ac2620857b/c.html

It is permitted by the Montreux Convention signed by the european powers. There is no reason that a similar convention cannot be created for the Strait of Hormuz.

gzt

18687 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 7827

Lifetime subscriber

#3476270 31-Mar-2026 18:15

Coincidentally Türkiye exercises the Montreux Convention to prevent military vessels entering the Black Sea which has in practice limited the use of naval assets in the Ukraine-Russia war.

Batman

Mad Scientist
30014 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 6217

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3476275 31-Mar-2026 18:34

wellygary:

If trump stopped the attacks on Iran and US forces headed home, there is no reason that the strait would stay closed,

Closing an international waterway with no hostiles occurring would simply embolden other countries to do the same in retaliation,

Iranian Tankers heading to China have to transit through the Strait of Malacca and past Singapore, can't see Singapore being happy to let tankers past if theirs are being stopped in Hormuz...

If USA goes home Iran is going to rule the middle east and terrorise the gulf. why should they give up their greatest hand?

And Singapore is the least of Iran's concerns. Singapore is like Dubai. Very vulnerable. If the entire population of one island of Indonesia got dropped on Singapore the island would be overrun. If Malaysia stops food and water supply Singapore would starve to death. if China drops one bomb on the island it's flattened. Singapore doesn't have many friends that can help them. in fact most of its neighbours can be hostile at any moment due to jealousy of its success, it sticks out like a tall poppy around its impoverished neighbours.

Lenovo

Shop now for Lenovo laptops and other devices (affiliate link).

DjShadow

4222 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1322

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#3476282 31-Mar-2026 18:56

Saw this noted in a FB group, apparently with Gull they apply a $200 pre-auth hold on a fill but if you happen to need more than that then the pump will stop at $200 and you won’t be able to pump again until you setup a new transaction.

Going by Gaspy’s avg price for 91 being $3.434, that only gets you 58.24L if filling from dead empty so pricing now at the stage where those with big tanks may need to do multiple transactions

Scott3

4177 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2990

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3476341 31-Mar-2026 20:41

I have hit Waitomo's $150 limit in 2025 filling a car with a 65L tank. Came as a surprise, so I just ran a second transaction for the balance.

Apparently if you want more in one transaction, you can select your own amount on the screen at the beginning. Assume the other pay at pump operators are similar.

fastbike

448 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 321

#3476349 31-Mar-2026 21:53

wellygary:

Weekly border crossing arrivals are tracking pretty much in line with the last few years...

https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/international-travel-provisional/

Until they don't. Crises happen gradually, and then suddenly. We are at that tipping point.

Otautahi Christchurch

fastbike

448 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 321

#3476350 31-Mar-2026 22:01

DjShadow:

Saw this noted in a FB group, apparently with Gull they apply a $200 pre-auth hold on a fill but if you happen to need more than that then the pump will stop at $200 and you won’t be able to pump again until you setup a new transaction.

Going by Gaspy’s avg price for 91 being $3.434, that only gets you 58.24L if filling from dead empty so pricing now at the stage where those with big tanks may need to do multiple transactions

Sorry to be Debbie Downer. I've seen this as the replay in the front facing mirror since the 1991 Iraq war 1 invasion.

What makes you think you have a lifetime entitlement to cheap fossil fuels, especially when we've been on notice since around 2005 that we need to seriously curtail CO2 emissions if we want our kids and grand kids to have a fighting chance of not being under water - literally and financially,

If you have not been able to organise your life affairs - home, employment, investments - and got caught short here because it costs you $50 more per week to fill your tank then you've not been paying attention. Take this as a wake up call.

If you're not living locally, and driving an EV for when you need additional range, then don't come crying. We've lived in the same universe.

Otautahi Christchurch

1 | ... | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | ... | 64