2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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458 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#3476352 31-Mar-2026 22:10

Batman:

wellygary:

If trump stopped the attacks on Iran and US forces headed home, there is no reason that the strait would stay closed,

Closing an international waterway with no hostiles occurring would simply embolden other countries to do the same in retaliation,

Iranian Tankers heading to China have to transit through the Strait of Malacca and past Singapore, can't see Singapore being happy to let tankers past if theirs are being stopped in Hormuz...

If USA goes home Iran is going to rule the middle east and terrorise the gulf. why should they give up their greatest hand?

Haha. You need to widen your perspective. This is a fools game, neither side will blink. As fossil fuel addicts we are going to be collateral damage.

Take a think about the psychology of the parties involved - both are pathological.

Read the linked article to see why neither will back down in the short term - which will cause immense damage. USA seems to think this is Iraq 2003,but easier. We are about to find out otherwise.

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fastbike

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Ultimate Geek
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#3476357 31-Mar-2026 23:01

Meantime we see how facile our ruling c lass are ...

Transpower executive general manager of operations Chantelle Bramley said LNG would bring new energy into a constrained system, and would buy New Zealand time to "build out" renewables.

"It gives us optionality. And in times of uncertainty, creating more options is actually a really good thing.

"We're a tiny country at the bottom of the South Pacific. We are not an interconnected power system. There are things that will happen in our domestic market that at some point we'll also want to be looking at that international fuel mix. The war in Iran won't be going on forever, so I think that that optionality is also really important."

So ... we have a highly paid executive in a country which gets 90% of its power from indigenous sources, which it can control and are not subject to international conurbations - yet she somehow wants to link our power prices to the likes of the tRump, the ayatollahs , and crazy Bibi.

You could not make this shit up. Apparently we are paying her salary !

Otautahi Christchurch

Handle9

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#3476369 1-Apr-2026 02:20

fastbike:

Meantime we see how facile our ruling c lass are ...

Transpower executive general manager of operations Chantelle Bramley said LNG would bring new energy into a constrained system, and would buy New Zealand time to "build out" renewables.

"It gives us optionality. And in times of uncertainty, creating more options is actually a really good thing.

"We're a tiny country at the bottom of the South Pacific. We are not an interconnected power system. There are things that will happen in our domestic market that at some point we'll also want to be looking at that international fuel mix. The war in Iran won't be going on forever, so I think that that optionality is also really important."

So ... we have a highly paid executive in a country which gets 90% of its power from indigenous sources, which it can control and are not subject to international conurbations - yet she somehow wants to link our power prices to the likes of the tRump, the ayatollahs , and crazy Bibi.

You could not make this shit up. Apparently we are paying her salary !

It's pretty silly the way you have selectively quoted Bramleys position. The rather significant first sentence that you omitted was:

Transpower executive general manager of operations Chantelle Bramley said LNG would bring new energy into a constrained system, and would buy New Zealand time to "build out" renewables.

Equally selectively quoted was the 90% number. If you want to maintain any credibility telling the whole story, rather than one that suits your world view, is somewhat important.

fastbike

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Ultimate Geek
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#3476382 1-Apr-2026 07:39

Handle9:

It's pretty silly the way you have selectively quoted Bramleys position. The rather significant first sentence that you omitted was:

Transpower executive general manager of operations Chantelle Bramley said LNG would bring new energy into a constrained system, and would buy New Zealand time to "build out" renewables.

Equally selectively quoted was the 90% number. If you want to maintain any credibility telling the whole story, rather than one that suits your world view, is somewhat important.

Maybe take a moment to reread what I wrote ... that was the first sentence attributed to Bramley that I quoted.

Anyway your wishful thinking is no match for the realities of geopolitics. The LNG terminal was a silly idea for numerous reasons, explained by numerous energy and security experts, when it was announced. It is now just plain reckless. It will never be built.

Figures for renewables come from Transpower, currently in the high 90s for this year.

Otautahi Christchurch

nitro

762 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#3476386 1-Apr-2026 08:01

DjShadow:

Saw this noted in a FB group, apparently with Gull they apply a $200 pre-auth hold on a fill but if you happen to need more than that then the pump will stop at $200 and you won’t be able to pump again until you setup a new transaction.

Going by Gaspy’s avg price for 91 being $3.434, that only gets you 58.24L if filling from dead empty so pricing now at the stage where those with big tanks may need to do multiple transactions

that isn't new. there has always been a credit hold at different/changing levels. i remember it being $150, and i think Mobil has it at $300 (unless it has been changed). stopping any further/immediate new transactions at the same service station might help address things like - man-photographed-apparently-stockpiling-barrels-fuel

SaltyNZ

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#3476413 1-Apr-2026 09:13

wellygary:

If trump stopped the attacks on Iran and US forces headed home, there is no reason that the strait would stay closed,

Closing an international waterway with no hostiles occurring would simply embolden other countries to do the same in retaliation,

Iranian Tankers heading to China have to transit through the Strait of Malacca and past Singapore, can't see Singapore being happy to let tankers past if theirs are being stopped in Hormuz...

No, but now what it would mean is that Iran will charge $2M a ship to not blow them up on their way through as reparations.

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kangaroo13

87 posts

Master Geek
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#3476418 1-Apr-2026 09:28

fastbike:

Haha. You need to widen your perspective. This is a fools game, neither side will blink. As fossil fuel addicts we are going to be collateral damage.

I think it is a power-play by Trump to try to drag Europe (and others) into the war. He is in effect threatening to depart, when he's achieved his primary 'goals' (unclear what they are, but they do not appear to include opening the Strait), and then leave it it Europe and Gulf "allies" to clean up the mess. "You won't support me in my war, well f* you - I'll just leave you to clean up the mess". The world is critically dependent upon resources from the region. For a while the US can soldier on with it's own fossil fuel supplies, and some (including some of Trump's buddies) will even profit from selling into a high market. But the political cost is likely to be high when Americans are paying high prices to fuel their monster trucks at the bowser.

wellygary

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#3476422 1-Apr-2026 09:39

SaltyNZ:

No, but now what it would mean is that Iran will charge $2M a ship to not blow them up on their way through as reparations.

Or not, TBH, Everything is so fluid its pretty impossible to know what the situation will be in a months time...

"KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysian tankers allowed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz will not be subject to a toll imposed by Iran, according to Transport Minister Anthony Loke.

“The Iranian ambassador has mentioned that no toll is being imposed on Malaysian vessels,” Mr Loke said at an event on March 31. “We are a friendly party. We have a good diplomatic relationship with the Iranian government.”

On March 28, Malaysia’s foreign affairs minister said Iran had cleared seven Malaysian tankers to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, which has become a flashpoint of the war in the Middle East."

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysia-says-its-tankers-will-be-exempt-from-irans-hormuz-toll

MikeB4

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#3476423 1-Apr-2026 09:40

My wife met with Minister Chris Penk this morning. He advised that Aotearoa is well placed with reserves and tankers in bound.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

mudguard

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#3476425 1-Apr-2026 09:46

It really does feel like Pandora's box has been opened. The open sea has been by and large been policed by the US for eighty years or so. Now they may have got sick and tired of being the world police however they were uniquely placed by virtue of geography after world war two.

The premise of open shipping relied on a big ole warship steaming in if someone misbehaved. With cheap and deadly drones all of a sudden these are somewhat of an easy target.

So this may be the new normal, countries that can, will "tax" each passing ship.

richms

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#3476432 1-Apr-2026 10:11

nitro:

DjShadow:

Saw this noted in a FB group, apparently with Gull they apply a $200 pre-auth hold on a fill but if you happen to need more than that then the pump will stop at $200 and you won’t be able to pump again until you setup a new transaction.

Going by Gaspy’s avg price for 91 being $3.434, that only gets you 58.24L if filling from dead empty so pricing now at the stage where those with big tanks may need to do multiple transactions

that isn't new. there has always been a credit hold at different/changing levels. i remember it being $150, and i think Mobil has it at $300 (unless it has been changed). stopping any further/immediate new transactions at the same service station might help address things like - man-photographed-apparently-stockpiling-barrels-fuel

Can you type in a higher amount yet? the 200 thing was a problem last time prices got high I found when I still had an ICE vehicle. Was not able to put in more than $200 when choosing an amount either.

Richard rich.ms

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nitro

762 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#3476463 1-Apr-2026 11:10

richms:

Can you type in a higher amount yet? the 200 thing was a problem last time prices got high I found when I still had an ICE vehicle. Was not able to put in more than $200 when choosing an amount either.

sorry, i haven't tried. i mostly use the 'Fill' option, and have come close to but never exceeded $200. i have some recollection of communication from mobil that their raising the pre-authorisation hold amount to $300. i've never really tested this.

tstone

406 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#3476529 1-Apr-2026 11:59

I feel that there's lot of opinions in this thread that are optimistic about a political or 'control' solution to our fuel supplies. I'm a pessimist because when things turn out better than I expect it feels good. 😜

I feel that come the end of April, countries like South Korea will keep 'our' supplies to themselves to ensure their citizens are 'happy' and their economy staggering along. Previous deals/guarantees will be thrown out the window to ensure country's survival. Just look at the turmoil in Korea with government departments now arguing amongst themselves and Korean Air going into emergency mode which is virtually a shutdown. If they can't supply fuel domestically what does that mean for NZ?

johno1234

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#3476531 1-Apr-2026 12:09

I'm generally an optimist unless persuaded otherwise. I'm more often right too. Life is much better when you're a natural optimist.

SaltyNZ

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#3476536 1-Apr-2026 12:34

tstone:

I feel that there's lot of opinions in this thread that are optimistic about a political or 'control' solution to our fuel supplies. I'm a pessimist because when things turn out better than I expect it feels good. 😜

I feel that come the end of April, countries like South Korea will keep 'our' supplies to themselves to ensure their citizens are 'happy' and their economy staggering along. Previous deals/guarantees will be thrown out the window to ensure country's survival. Just look at the turmoil in Korea with government departments now arguing amongst themselves and Korean Air going into emergency mode which is virtually a shutdown. If they can't supply fuel domestically what does that mean for NZ?

Exactly. You're the president of South Korea. Your citizens - the ones you are sworn by oath to serve - are screaming as the economy collapses due to fuel shortages. Will you

Send a bunch of fuel to New Zealand, further worsening your own economic situation and chances of being re-elected
Refund the tiny amount of money to New Zealand, keep the fuel for yourself, blush and apologise if and when the time comes that everything is back to normal

I think it's going to be pretty hard to choose (1).

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