2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3478912 7-Apr-2026 21:31

kingdragonfly: Just released by BBC around 5pm NZ time

Oil prices rise as Trump's Iran deal deadline looms: BBC

Global oil prices rose on Tuesday afternoon in Asia ahead of a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

The price of global benchmark Brent crude was up by about 1.4% to NZD $195.25 a barrel, while US-traded oil gained 2.8% to NZD 202.76.

On Monday, Trump threatened to take out Iran "in one night" if it failed to agree a deal with the US by [ 4 am NZ time ] 20:00 Washington DC time.
...

TACO, hopefully?

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

lookout

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#3478914 7-Apr-2026 21:34

SaltyNZ:

kingdragonfly: Just released by BBC around 5pm NZ time

Oil prices rise as Trump's Iran deal deadline looms: BBC

Global oil prices rose on Tuesday afternoon in Asia ahead of a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

The price of global benchmark Brent crude was up by about 1.4% to NZD $195.25 a barrel, while US-traded oil gained 2.8% to NZD 202.76.

On Monday, Trump threatened to take out Iran "in one night" if it failed to agree a deal with the US by [ 4 am NZ time ] 20:00 Washington DC time.
...

TACO, hopefully?

Hoping for TACO Tuesday

Ge0rge

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#3478919 7-Apr-2026 22:45

Ouch.

BlakJak

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#3478922 7-Apr-2026 23:31

https://www.fuelclock.nz/ is interesting.

No signature to see here, move along...

Scott3

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#3478923 7-Apr-2026 23:48

SaltyNZ:

kingdragonfly: Just released by BBC around 5pm NZ time

Oil prices rise as Trump's Iran deal deadline looms: BBC

Global oil prices rose on Tuesday afternoon in Asia ahead of a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

The price of global benchmark Brent crude was up by about 1.4% to NZD $195.25 a barrel, while US-traded oil gained 2.8% to NZD 202.76.

On Monday, Trump threatened to take out Iran "in one night" if it failed to agree a deal with the US by [ 4 am NZ time ] 20:00 Washington DC time.
...

TACO, hopefully?

Yes, very much hopefully.

If he carries through with his threat to destroy every power plant (as per the wall street journal interview covered below), noting Iran has the 1000 MW Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, it will create epic global chaos. Stacking the current fuel situation with a nuclear disaster is not good for anybody....

https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-warns-in-journal-interview-that-he-could-strike-every-power-plant-in-iran-47556f0d

Scott3

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#3478926 8-Apr-2026 00:12

Ge0rge:

Ouch.

This is huge. 55c jump overnight...

And breaking through the $4/L physiological barrier.

And it is now cheaper to run (based on rated consumption) the 292 kW, 33" All terrain tire wearing ranger raptor than the a diesel wild track.

Ranger raptor v6 petrol (292 kW) 11.5L/100km @3.615 = $41.57

Ranger Wiltrack v6 diesel (184 Kw), 9.6l/100 Km @4.164 + $7.6 in RUC = $47.57 / 100km

Will be interesting to see how this influences behavior, in segments where where petrol alternatives exist to deisel.

But of course where will be no avoiding the inflationary pressure in general. Petrol trucks bigger than Atlas went obsolete a long time ago....

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/591688/it-s-going-to-be-1975-again-diesel-prices-face-sharp-jump

AA spokesperson Terry Collins said he was at a meeting on Tuesday where it was indicated that price could soften a little, but he said it would remain over $4.

He said the cost of refining had lifted 600 percent.

"Refining is now more than the cost of oil."

Somehow I missed that there was a refining crunch. My concerns were largely about getting the feedstock to the Korea / Singapore / Japan refineries...

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mattwnz

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#3478927 8-Apr-2026 01:40

IRD are going to have to increase substantially and quickly the amount per KM that business can claim mileage for at this rate. Some business may not be able to afford to operate with these sorts of increases, especailly if they aren't able to increase prices.

johno1234

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#3478931 8-Apr-2026 06:52

Since when are Z retail prices dictated by head office?

Z Greenlane $3.899 this morning.

fastbike

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#3478932 8-Apr-2026 06:59

Scott3:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/591688/it-s-going-to-be-1975-again-diesel-prices-face-sharp-jump
Somehow I missed that there was a refining crunch. My concerns were largely about getting the feedstock to the Korea / Singapore / Japan refineries...

Something that I posted about over the weekend that msm focus on Brent crude priced movements were irrelevant at best and just plain misguided. Bernard Hickey has covered why last week. NSM catches up a week later.

Meanwhile the local fuel companies raise prices based on contracts they have signed for fuel that is in transit, so prices go up before fuel arrives .

IIRC if/when their purchase cost drops, that only flows through to retail prices when the lower cost fuel is landed. However that may be academic this time if fuel costs remain elevated for years.

Edited for autocorrect

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fastbike

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#3478933 8-Apr-2026 07:02

johno1234:

Since when are Z retail prices dictated by head office?

Z Greenlane $3.899 this morning.

Did you read the link. The important users are not buying retail.

"Some of Z's commercial customers are supplied under a weekly National List Price, which provides a consistent price nationwide. These prices are generated through automated, formula based pricing mechanisms that reflect underlying market costs."

Otautahi Christchurch

MikeAqua

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#3478946 8-Apr-2026 08:26

BlakJak:

johno1234:

An acquaintance of mine fits 3000L of diesel into his boat.

And yet....

Class 3 Hazardous Goods, "Diesel with a flash point of 60°C or less is classified as UN 1202, GAS OIL or DIESEL FUEL or HEATING OIL, LIGHT, class 3, packing group III." - Max Qty 250L

Class 9 Diesel with a flash point over 60°C, classified as UN 3082, ENVIRONMENTALLY HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCE, LIQUID, N.O.S. (diesel)" Packing group III, Max Qty 2000L

I'm guessing a boat that holds 3,000L of diesel doesn't fit on road trailer. That's ~2.5T of fuel.

Mike

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MikeAqua

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#3478948 8-Apr-2026 08:28

mattwnz:

IRD are going to have to increase substantially and quickly the amount per KM that business can claim mileage for at this rate. Some business may not be able to afford to operate with these sorts of increases, especailly if they aren't able to increase prices.

Do IRD do within tax year increases?

Mike

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#3478956 8-Apr-2026 08:54

Scott3:

Somehow I missed that there was a refining crunch. My concerns were largely about getting the feedstock to the Korea / Singapore / Japan refineries...

As I understand it, there isn't a refining crunch yet.
What has happened is that the refineries have bid up their output prices, increasing their margins quite spectacularly - capitalism 'red in tooth and claw'.

The actual refining crunch won't happen until the last tanker load that left the Persian Gulf before the Strait of Hormuz closed has been processed, and there may or may not be much / any unrefined oil to process.
That will be ... about now I think. 😰

mudguard

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#3478963 8-Apr-2026 09:21

mattwnz:

IRD are going to have to increase substantially and quickly the amount per KM that business can claim mileage for at this rate. Some business may not be able to afford to operate with these sorts of increases, especailly if they aren't able to increase prices.

How does the business claim mileage work? In my old role I was paid the IRD per KM rate as a reimbursement.

johno1234

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#3478966 8-Apr-2026 09:31

MikeAqua:

I'm guessing a boat that holds 3,000L of diesel doesn't fit on road trailer. That's ~2.5T of fuel.

It weighs about 25 tonne so a difficult trailering proposition!

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