2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3479570 9-Apr-2026 19:00

fastbike:

johno1234:

By "we" I hope that common garden variety Kiwi citizens such as us are not spending a cent on these slop farms (I like that term!). I expect that examples such as the Tiwai point slop farm are built and paid for by some big-tech offshore outfit and that we are selling them the excess power from Manapouri as we are 51% shareholders through the government in Meridian. That would be a nice green export earner

That's not what the analysts say. Transfer pricing means we are getting a ridiculously small uplift in GDP given the amount of power this thing will use. Just another nail in the coffin of an industrial base here in NZ. Will the last one out please turn off the data centre.

Cite?

fastbike

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#3479575 9-Apr-2026 19:25

Cite?

Here's a little one to get you started.

I suggest you take a moment to think how much value add 1.2TWh of energy in a NZ controlled entity would add to GDP, tax, local employment.

This is just more hollowing out of our industrial base. It uses 3% of our energy for a $60M contribution to GDP.

https://newzealandenergy.substack.com/p/the-280mw-question-an-update

Of course you can do you own research , Newstalk is pretty breathless.

Edit: typos

Otautahi Christchurch

SaltyNZ

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#3479576 9-Apr-2026 19:28

Batwing:

I hope you're not fuming yourself too hard while driving

Only in the comfort and privacy of your own home, kids.

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ezbee

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#3479657 10-Apr-2026 09:07

Looks like the limited supply and high price of oil, LNG, fertilizer, will continue for a long time.
Longer term structural issue impacting how we commute, move freight, air travel(tourism), farming not just on fuel but fertilizer?

Strait of Hormuz not open, Abu Dhabi’s oil chief says as crude prices rise
Uncertainty over US-Iran ceasefire pushes price of Brent crude towards $100 a barrel
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/09/oil-price-rises-as-markets-question-durability-of-middle-east-ceasefire-iran

Iran Mines Strait of Hormuz, Forces Ships Through the 'Tehran Toll Booth' in Its Waters
What's Going on With Shipping?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9rslGBcEZQ

Suspects there are no mines, though saying so effectively blocks the main channels making it too risky.
With drones you don't need old style mines anyways?
Marine traffic single digits, far from >100 a day normal or amount to clear 800 ships trapped in gulf

cddt

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#3479671 10-Apr-2026 10:05

https://www.anz.co.nz/about-us/economic-markets-research/truckometer/

For the month of March:

Light traffic index -2.4%

Heavy traffic index +0.4%

Not moves of the same magnitude which have been claimed in other sources...

SaltyNZ

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#3479753 10-Apr-2026 12:08

Oil dependency double whammy in play with increasing frequency and severity of storms. Several of the tankers close to NZ will be delayed as the ports are closed till the cyclone is gone.

// Perfect storm – With fuel stocks already stretched, Cyclone Vaianu is expected to delay four inbound oil tankers from tying up and discharging in NZ from tonight. The vessels are Chang Hang Kai Tuo, Hafnia Expedite, Oriental Aquamarine and Grand Winner 3. There's uncertainty over a fifth tanker, TP Endurance. Port of Tauranga says it will suspend all inbound vessel movements from 6pm; Northport has told three to remain offshore. The tankers have begun pushing back their estimated arrival times 32-plus hours.

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fastbike

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#3479754 10-Apr-2026 12:17

Batwing:

I hope you're not fuming yourself too hard while driving

I borrowed a neighbour's 15HP shredder back in the summer, along with a ten litre plastic jerry can. I was pretty careful not to spill anything when I filled it but it still took a couple of days to get rid of the stench of petrol from my Leaf, so did end up fuming as I drove LoL

On a related but random note - there was a yellow plastic jerry can sitting between lanes in Madras St in Wednesday evening when I walked home. I move it to the footpath, did it fall off the back of a some ute ? Probably had $50 worth of fuel in it.

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fastbike

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#3480065 11-Apr-2026 18:00

So given that there is a ceasefire that has not changed what can transit through Hormuz, we are still facing the possibilities of tight fuel supplies and a requirement to prioritise what is available.

There's a good article on the Conversation, it is written from the perspective of the lucky country, and as their bargaining position is stronger than ours I would take what it says and imagine it as a best case scenario.

There is also a lot of calls for further electrification of the transportation fleet to help us cut back on the $200M we send offshore each week for fossil fuels/ And a renewed call to fast track the Onslow scheme. Here's why that is probably not a good idea (too big and too expensive).

Happy Saturday evening.

Otautahi Christchurch

johno1234

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#3480068 11-Apr-2026 18:43

Pumping water uphill to let it flow back down never felt plausible to me. There must be better conventional hydro opportunities?

gzt

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#3480073 11-Apr-2026 19:25

It's essentially stored energy. Maybe the same can be done with generation assets but I'm guessing there are several aspects that would not be efficient that way.

BlakJak

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#3480085 11-Apr-2026 19:32

deepred:

richms:

Lightbulb:

If capacity to store is a real issue - rather than supply - then maybe the government should encourage us to fill up our tanks and 20L cans.

They cant be seen to encourage people to violate hazmat laws tho. There is very little that you can legally store in a house, and leaving them in the car is probably not something that most people want to do.

I have a 10L petrol can in my car boot, but I don't use it much because the smell is overpowering, no matther how tight the cap is.

Why would you carry it, beyond taking it to/from being filled up and/or any need to use it 'right then' ? If there's room in your cars tank, top it up, and stop carrying the extra weight around for no particular reason.

When things were more marginal for me financially I had been known to dump my 5L can of lawnmower fuel into the car and refill it on pay day. But i'd only carry the can for the refueling trip!

I stopped needing a Lawnmower about 6 years ago, you've reminded me I should probably organise to dispose of whatever's left in the fuel can now... it'll be well past it's use-by.

No signature to see here, move along...

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johno1234

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#3480086 11-Apr-2026 19:56

gzt: It's essentially stored energy. Maybe the same can be done with generation assets but I'm guessing there are several aspects that would not be efficient that way.

In a lossless scenario the energy required to pump it up hill is the same as the energy captured letting it flow down again. Then take away the losses in both directions and you have a significant negative energy loss?

The one benefit is the ability to store and generate to a planned schedule.

It all sounds like a very expensive way to waste energy?

deepred

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#3480090 11-Apr-2026 20:07

gzt: It's essentially stored energy. Maybe the same can be done with generation assets but I'm guessing there are several aspects that would not be efficient that way.

And maybe it could be done in stages, starting with a mini-Onslow and then adding more as needed.

"I regret to say that we of the F.B.I. are powerless to act in cases of oral-genital intimacy, unless it has in some way obstructed interstate commerce." — J. Edgar Hoover

"Create a society that values material things above all else. Strip it of industry. Raise taxes for the poor and reduce them for the rich and for corporations. Prop up failed financial institutions with public money. Ask for more tax, while vastly reducing public services. Put adverts everywhere, regardless of people's ability to afford the things they advertise. Allow the cost of food and housing to eclipse people's ability to pay for them. Light blue touch paper." — Andrew Maxwell

HarmLessSolutions

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#3480095 11-Apr-2026 20:23

gzt: It's essentially stored energy. Maybe the same can be done with generation assets but I'm guessing there are several aspects that would not be efficient that way.

Absolutely it's just another energy storage strategy. Those of us with solar have a range of options to make the most of our own generation such as chemical energy storage methods in batteries, heat energy storage by diverting to HWCs or spa pools or export to the grid, which is a pretty inefficient exchange economically.

Each storage method has its own downsides. Heat loss, battery charge loss and chemical degradation and of course the financial loss in grid export/import. Hydro stays in place pretty much lossless until such time that the water is released and its gravitational potential is harvested. While a hydro system that requires pumping to replenish its reservoir does incur losses in doing so this can be mitigated by pumping at times of grid surplus. As a long duration storage system it takes some beating.

The pumped hydro strategy is well explained here:

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

Handle9

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#3480098 11-Apr-2026 20:44

johno1234:

gzt: It's essentially stored energy. Maybe the same can be done with generation assets but I'm guessing there are several aspects that would not be efficient that way.

In a lossless scenario the energy required to pump it up hill is the same as the energy captured letting it flow down again. Then take away the losses in both directions and you have a significant negative energy loss?

The one benefit is the ability to store and generate to a planned schedule.

It all sounds like a very expensive way to waste energy?

Not really. The big issue with renewables is the generation is often at a time where it’s not useful. This will become more of an issue with more rooftop solar

Storing that energy to a be used at a time when it’s useful, even with losses, can make a lot of sense.

Unfortunately the current government decided to cancel the feasibility study because engineering is woke nonsense so all we have is reckons rather than a true business case proving it either way

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