2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3480099 11-Apr-2026 20:48

johno1234:
gzt: It's essentially stored energy. Maybe the same can be done with generation assets but I'm guessing there are several aspects that would not be efficient that way.
In a lossless scenario the energy required to pump it up hill is the same as the energy captured letting it flow down again. Then take away the losses in both directions and you have a significant negative energy loss?
The one benefit is the ability to store and generate to a planned schedule.

It all sounds like a very expensive way to waste energy?

The major benefit is storing off-peak and releasing on-peak.

HarmLessSolutions

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#3480100 11-Apr-2026 20:53

gzt:

The major benefit is storing off-peak and releasing on-peak.

With the major benefit that this can be done seasonally with pumped hydro as opposed to over a few days as is the case with most other systems.

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pdh

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#3480101 11-Apr-2026 21:01

> heat energy storage by diverting to HWCs or spa pools

You need to be a bit cautious - lumping heat storage in with other types of energy storage.

Spending energy to store heat is nice only if you know you're going to want heat (at some later time) - and can afford the inevitable heat loss in the mean time. But it's hugely inefficient if you try to get that energy back - to fly planes or turn on lights...

Getting heat back into usable energy form is non-trivial.
Like putting Humpty back together.

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#3480103 11-Apr-2026 21:25

pdh:

> heat energy storage by diverting to HWCs or spa pools

You need to be a bit cautious - lumping heat storage in with other types of energy storage.

Spending energy to store heat is nice only if you know you're going to want heat (at some later time) - and can afford the inevitable heat loss in the mean time. But it's hugely inefficient if you try to get that energy back - to fly planes or turn on lights...

Getting heat back into usable energy form is non-trivial.
Like putting Humpty back together.

Storage by definition is keeping something for later use. If you're planning on using electrical energy to heat something water is a good medium to effect a useful vector to do this this with. Not planning on running my lights using hot water so that is a pretty irrelevant concept to envisage.

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gzt

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#3480104 11-Apr-2026 21:33

I've just realised we're having this discussion in the Fuel Prices and Security thread. Too much coffee today. Pumped hydro has been a worthwhile discussion and it's not complete but unfortunately in the wrong topic imo.

fastbike

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#3480122 12-Apr-2026 08:45

Bernard Hickey on RNZ now explaining how this likely pans out.

His take, a multi year hit to economic prospects

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#3480791 14-Apr-2026 16:00

Nice Tuesday surprise, we have a commercial account with NPD and they emailed us to say Diesel is dropping 33c tomorrow for the period 15/4 to 21/4

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#3480795 14-Apr-2026 16:31

JPNZ:

Nice Tuesday surprise, we have a commercial account with NPD and they emailed us to say Diesel is dropping 33c tomorrow for the period 15/4 to 21/4

Wow that is quite a hefty drop.

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#3480798 14-Apr-2026 16:47

JPNZ:

Nice Tuesday surprise, we have a commercial account with NPD and they emailed us to say Diesel is dropping 33c tomorrow for the period 15/4 to 21/4

I noticed that Waitomo went back to its Regular Thursday Discounting last, week, - hadn't seen that in a few weeks,

Looks like the importers are now seeing some stabilisation in future contracts pricing.. but as with everything it could all change tomorrow..

gzt

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#3480912 14-Apr-2026 23:26

The badly named Taxpayers Union lobby group staffed mainly by ACT Party members and a few NATs says fuel updates should be daily from the podium, currently it's seven days out of date. The group also has an opinion stocks on the water should not be included:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/592353/taxpayers-union-calls-for-daily-fuel-stock-updates-arguing-the-data-is-old

Imo the current reporting cycle seems ok if stocks are maintained. Presumably the govt is going to get a notification if something very significant falls through and the opportunity to signal that coming if confirmed.

fastbike

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#3480922 15-Apr-2026 06:59

gzt: The badly named Taxpayers Union lobby group staffed mainly by ACT Party members and a few NATs says fuel updates should be daily from the podium, currently it's seven days out of date. The group also has an opinion stocks on the water should not be included:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/592353/taxpayers-union-calls-for-daily-fuel-stock-updates-arguing-the-data-is-old

Imo the current reporting cycle seems ok if stocks are maintained. Presumably the govt is going to get a notification if something very significant falls through and the opportunity to signal that coming if confirmed.

The problem is the lack of transparency and the timeliness. Yesterday's 1pm update was almost 5 days out of date. There are other independent sites that are tracking tanker movements so I'm not sure why MBIE are not augmenting their chart with this easily obtained and verified data. The current situation is too chummy.

On a related note NZ Inc is now spending $200M extra per week on imported fuel, which will wreck our alrready weak terms of trade, making all imported items more expensive. RBNZ cannot look through the subsequent inflation so interest rates rises will be on top of increased costs - here's come a recession.

So back on topic, if any projects you have are going to be impacted by the price and availability of fuel, get them locked in soon.

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#3480941 15-Apr-2026 08:24

Phoned my out of town window people to ask why they hadn’t come to give me a window quote yet. Been waiting since the last storm. Response was they are waiting to get a few jobs to price in Wellington to save on fuel. I now suspect contracts will have a cost escalation clause in them.

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#3481014 15-Apr-2026 13:00

fastbike:
gzt: The badly named Taxpayers Union lobby group staffed mainly by ACT Party members and a few NATs says fuel updates should be daily from the podium, currently it's seven days out of date. The group also has an opinion stocks on the water should not be included:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/592353/taxpayers-union-calls-for-daily-fuel-stock-updates-arguing-the-data-is-old

Imo the current reporting cycle seems ok if stocks are maintained. Presumably the govt is going to get a notification if something very significant falls through and the opportunity to signal that coming if confirmed.

The problem is the lack of transparency and the timeliness. Yesterday's 1pm update was almost 5 days out of date. There are other independent sites that are tracking tanker movements so I'm not sure why MBIE are not augmenting their chart with this easily obtained and verified data. The current situation is too chummy.

I think everyone prefers accurate and up-to-date data. In real terms I think you'll find it's a 'choose one of those things' situation. The many independent tracking sites will not face a royal comission if it goes horribly wrong using data that is basically without warranty and unconfirmed. The minister will. Any sensible criticism would be and should be directed at the minister, Nicola Willis. As should any sensible criticism about transparency. The minister is capable of answering to that responsibility. The taxpayers union is too chummy with National for that effort.

gzt

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#3481016 15-Apr-2026 13:16

fastbike: On a related note NZ Inc is now spending $200M extra per week on imported fuel, which will wreck our alrready weak terms of trade, making all imported items more expensive. RBNZ cannot look through the subsequent inflation so interest rates rises will be on top of increased costs - here's come a recession. So back on topic, if any projects you have are going to be impacted by the price and availability of fuel, get them locked in soon.

$200M extra per week is a lot to pass on over this period. There are few sectors of the economy not impacted. At the best of times we spend a lot on the stuff. Security would be greatly enhanced if we used less of it at the best of times.

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#3481017 15-Apr-2026 13:19

gzt: Security would be greatly enhanced if we used less of it at the best of times.

Please, stop, I only have so many spare keyboards to bang on the desk till destruction.

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