2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3481924 18-Apr-2026 13:39

gzt: From the article. I have heard a number of people say this:

"anything at sea can’t be counted on, he says, as other countries can outbid us and divert the ships."

I have heard no credible evidence at all to support that.

... I mean, capitalism. I think if it was going to happen to our fuel it would have already happened - the last ones to sail from Asia to Australia and New Zealand are only a couple of days out now.

Potentially a greater chance of it happening when the first tankers to leave after it's really over set sail, because even if traffic resumes tomorrow, that won't be for another few weeks yet as they still have to get from the Gulf to Asia, unload and be processed. By then we will be in proper crisis mode.

And despite what Trump is loudly proclaiming at the moment, there doesn't seem to be a huge surge of tankers entering or leaving the Persian Gulf. There are some going out, but they are broadcasting that they are either Indian or Chinese crewed/destined, and they've been getting those through OK for a couple of weeks now. Not relevant to our situation, really. It ain't over till the insurance companies say it's over.

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#3481925 18-Apr-2026 13:40

gzt: From the article. I have heard a number of people say this:

"anything at sea can’t be counted on, he says, as other countries can outbid us and divert the ships."

I have heard no credible evidence at all to support that.

Not happening at this point but as the situation progresses with supply shortening it is a very real possibility. 'When push comes to shove' NZ may well be elbowed out of the way.

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#3481926 18-Apr-2026 13:42

I'm an armchair analyst, so take the following with a large rain of salt.

In a major global crisis, shipping patterns can and do change rapidly.

Cargoes can be rerouted if a buyer offers a higher price. This is a known behavior in commodity markets.

NZ is more exposed to this risk than the many large nearby markets.

This is not speculation: It is a plausible and historically observed market dynamic, even if it has not yet happened to NZ ... yet

Before 2022, NZ had domestic refining capacity, and the ability to process a wide range of crude types, so that's not good.

I'd like to think a fuel supplier would consider that reducing off our diesel could mean less food being shipped to their country, but I don't have that much faith.

Luckily NZ is a boring, predictable customer, and that’s a strength. Small, steady buyers are easy to serve. They don’t distort supply chains.

Also distance is usually a vulnerability, but it has one upside: Ships bound for NZ are often dedicated voyages, not opportunistic spot‑market runs.

Once a tanker is committed to a long-haul voyage to NZ, the incentive to divert mid‑journey is lower.

Of course we do have a desperate and panicked 500 pound gorilla as a next door neighbor

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#3481927 18-Apr-2026 13:44

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Kingdragonfly

Do you have any references that show the ship on the water redirection and shipment loss scenario is actually realistic or likely? All the references I have seen lead nowhere credible or are basically circular.

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#3482010 18-Apr-2026 20:03

gzt: Do you have any references that show the ship on the water redirection and shipment loss scenario is actually realistic or likely? All the references I have seen lead nowhere credible or are basically circular.

Just to make sure we're on the same page, in 2026 I'm not aware of any ships being redirected, but it does happen.

"Better to be on shore wishing you were at sea than at sea wishing you were on shore."

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." Benjamin Franklin)

All the reference I got are either paid industry reports, or have been pulled (for age???) from various mainstream financial websites.

Perhaps because the most recent relevant examples are from 2022, around the Russian sanctions. If I remember, LNG cargoes were widely reported as being redirected mid-voyage to higher-priced markets in Europe.

Paid reports

Oil Movements from S&P
Oil Market Report from International Energy Agency (IEA)

Both describe diversion as a normal response to price spreads and chokepoint disruptions.

You'll have to take my word that it describes how cargoes are redirected based on market signals.

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#3482015 18-Apr-2026 20:49

The first one mentions the spot market for tanker delivery. To me that does strongly imply redirection or reallocation based on market signals. Spot markets are volatile. I really doubt importers are bidding on spot markets for NZ delivery at this time.

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#3482031 19-Apr-2026 07:38

gzt: The first one mentions the spot market for tanker delivery. To me that does strongly imply redirection or reallocation based on market signals. Spot markets are volatile. I really doubt importers are bidding on spot markets for NZ delivery at this time.

The news reported the other day that government was underwriting the risk of price fluctuations for oil companies. So much for a free market.

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#3482042 19-Apr-2026 09:59

Oh contraire, its peak free market.
In a true free market, leverage is used to its fullest extent.
There may be a Pirate Code veneer of civilization on surface, but it is the 'Pirate Code'.

The companies that have fuel, and logistics to deliver it have more leverage than ever.
So deal gets sweeter to eliminate risks, preserve and enhance returns.

It would be a pity if something happened to your scheduled delivery at last moment.

I daresay that windfall profits will show up in these companies reports over time.

Our relative wealth, capability to pay a higher pump price, may seem unfair to poorer countries we outbuy?

Strait seems definitely off after a few dark tankers and cruise ships escaped, others were fired on.
Its only handful that Iran allows to transit, and USA does not then block.

A new normal?

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#3482044 19-Apr-2026 10:05

A new normal, certainly while the current president of the USA and Israel continue their wayward approach to international relations. My big concern locally, as a civil engineer involved in public infrastructure, is that the cost to undertake works was already increasing and had jumped hugely during the Covid inflation era to the point that we have to do less whilst costing more and the as a net importer of products, this is going to play havoc on our construction and engineering industries - no need for engineers if no work can be done, no point in builders/contractors if there is nothing designed to be built, etc.

Levels of service are going to drop and our road network, which is increasingly becoming a giant ponzi scheme, is going to fail (especially if the goverment pushes ahead with even larger vehicles on the road network to satisfy efficiencies in trucking).

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#3482073 19-Apr-2026 11:36

gzt:
Do you have any references that show the ship on the water redirection and shipment loss scenario is actually realistic or likely? All the references I have seen lead nowhere credible or are basically circular.

None for New Zealand, but Australia had six ships that had been scheduled to arrive be cancelled or diverted at the end of March, which is what prompted their global alternate-supplier purchasing search.

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#3482212 19-Apr-2026 16:48

This overlaps with the Politics thread, but it's still relevant.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/592794/green-party-issues-human-catastrophe-warning-in-state-of-the-planet-address

"We must electrify everything we can," she said. "We need homegrown, sustainable resilience in our energy system, powering everything we do.

"We don't need to depend on expensive fossil fuels hauled from the other side of the planet. We have everything we need here, at home.

"No-one is hoarding, attacking, or starting wars over sun, wind, water and geothermal energy. They don't come through the Strait of Hormuz.

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#3482224 19-Apr-2026 17:43

deepred:

This overlaps with the Politics thread, but it's still relevant.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/592794/green-party-issues-human-catastrophe-warning-in-state-of-the-planet-address

"We must electrify everything we can," she said. "We need homegrown, sustainable resilience in our energy system, powering everything we do.

"We don't need to depend on expensive fossil fuels hauled from the other side of the planet. We have everything we need here, at home.

"No-one is hoarding, attacking, or starting wars over sun, wind, water and geothermal energy. They don't come through the Strait of Hormuz.

Hell yes, it's a no brainer

It belongs in the common sense thread

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#3482240 19-Apr-2026 18:51

fastbike:

Hell yes, it's a no brainer

It belongs in the common sense thread

Once again I must ask you all to please stop, I have only so many spare keyboards to bash against my desk until destruction in frustration.

This, THIS RIGHT F'ING HERE, is why I eventually felt compelled to join the Green Party. You can believe that climate change is bulls*** if you like. You can decide that fish and frogs and birds and bugs and trees are icky and you only want to live in a Soviet brutalist concrete jungle.

But fossil fuels are a) sourced mostly from the most unstable places on the planet and b) 100% guaranteed to run out.

When I was a teenager studying maths, physics, electrical engineering and computing first at high school and later at university it quickly became clear to me that not only was the above utterly obvious, but also that climate change WAS real and it WOULD be a problem. But I thought we had 40 years to deal with it and surely, surely the smart people running the place would use that time wisely.

I was wrong.

And that's why I joined. Because the 40 years became 30 years and now we're in it and the increasingly wild weather the science predicted is ever more precedented every day and even the most progressive governments we've had since then have only fiddled around the edges. And (without wanting to get smacked too much because this should in the Luxon thread) this bunch of throwbacks right out of Mad Men blew away even the wishy-washy milquetoast baby steps we were taking and doubled down on fossil fuels. And they still won't come out and say 'actually the LNG terminal was a bad idea after all and we won't do it'.

I'm too old for the satisfaction to be derived from watching it all come crashing down to give me any smug feels. Although to be fair I'm more boggled at their belief they can ignore it and everything will go back to normal.

All this stuff that we should have been doing, we should have been doing steadily, deliberately, over a decade, so that we could make the transition for the easy things, figure out how to do the hard things, and make sure that people whose jobs became obsolete were not just fed and clothed to keep them quiet but looked after properly so that they could still feel like they mattered to society. Not now though. How much we can do and how fast we do it kind of depends on exactly how much longer this goes on. We're not all going to die, we still have 80% of the energy supply and all its byproducts available. But it's going to be a hell of a ride.

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HarmLessSolutions

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#3482245 19-Apr-2026 19:02

SaltyNZ:

fastbike:

Hell yes, it's a no brainer

It belongs in the common sense thread

Once again I must ask you all to please stop, I have only so many spare keyboards to bash against my desk until destruction in frustration.

This, THIS RIGHT F'ING HERE, is why I eventually felt compelled to join the Green Party. You can believe that climate change is bulls*** if you like. You can decide that fish and frogs and birds and bugs and trees are icky and you only want to live in a Soviet brutalist concrete jungle.

But fossil fuels are a) sourced mostly from the most unstable places on the planet and b) 100% guaranteed to run out.

When I was a teenager studying maths, physics, electrical engineering and computing first at high school and later at university it quickly became clear to me that not only was the above utterly obvious, but also that climate change WAS real and it WOULD be a problem. But I thought we had 40 years to deal with it and surely, surely the smart people running the place would use that time wisely.

I was wrong.

And that's why I joined. Because the 40 years became 30 years and now we're in it and the increasingly wild weather the science predicted is ever more precedented every day and even the most progressive governments we've had since then have only fiddled around the edges. And (without wanting to get smacked too much because this should in the Luxon thread) this bunch of throwbacks right out of Mad Men blew away even the wishy-washy milquetoast baby steps we were taking and doubled down on fossil fuels. And they still won't come out and say 'actually the LNG terminal was a bad idea after all and we won't do it'.

I'm too old for the satisfaction to be derived from watching it all come crashing down to give me any smug feels. Although to be fair I'm more boggled at their belief they can ignore it and everything will go back to normal.

All this stuff that we should have been doing, we should have been doing steadily, deliberately, over a decade, so that we could make the transition for the easy things, figure out how to do the hard things, and make sure that people whose jobs became obsolete were not just fed and clothed to keep them quiet but looked after properly so that they could still feel like they mattered to society. Not now though. How much we can do and how fast we do it kind of depends on exactly how much longer this goes on. We're not all going to die, we still have 80% of the energy supply and all its byproducts available. But it's going to be a hell of a ride.

Well said that man!

Like you I'm too old to be too worried about where things are going in my lifetime and have done my best to strategise in terms of energy and food supply but I am really concerned about what my grandkids have to look forward to in their lifetimes which will likely extend into the next century. I'm doing my best to set a good example to them and give them the tools to deal with the shitstorm on the horizon in terms of climate, energy and the essentials of living. As you say "it's going to be a hell of a ride" for humankind.

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johno1234

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#3482275 19-Apr-2026 19:33

Will you lot please take this stuff to an appropriate thread? This one is about security of supply under the gulf conflict. Not climate. Not energy sustainability.

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