2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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SaltyNZ

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#3481924 18-Apr-2026 13:39

gzt: From the article. I have heard a number of people say this:

"anything at sea can’t be counted on, he says, as other countries can outbid us and divert the ships."

I have heard no credible evidence at all to support that.

... I mean, capitalism. I think if it was going to happen to our fuel it would have already happened - the last ones to sail from Asia to Australia and New Zealand are only a couple of days out now.

Potentially a greater chance of it happening when the first tankers to leave after it's really over set sail, because even if traffic resumes tomorrow, that won't be for another few weeks yet as they still have to get from the Gulf to Asia, unload and be processed. By then we will be in proper crisis mode.

And despite what Trump is loudly proclaiming at the moment, there doesn't seem to be a huge surge of tankers entering or leaving the Persian Gulf. There are some going out, but they are broadcasting that they are either Indian or Chinese crewed/destined, and they've been getting those through OK for a couple of weeks now. Not relevant to our situation, really. It ain't over till the insurance companies say it's over.

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HarmLessSolutions

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#3481925 18-Apr-2026 13:40

gzt: From the article. I have heard a number of people say this:

"anything at sea can’t be counted on, he says, as other countries can outbid us and divert the ships."

I have heard no credible evidence at all to support that.

Not happening at this point but as the situation progresses with supply shortening it is a very real possibility. 'When push comes to shove' NZ may well be elbowed out of the way.

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kingdragonfly

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#3481926 18-Apr-2026 13:42

I'm an armchair analyst, so take the following with a large rain of salt.

In a major global crisis, shipping patterns can and do change rapidly.

Cargoes can be rerouted if a buyer offers a higher price. This is a known behavior in commodity markets.

NZ is more exposed to this risk than the many large nearby markets.

This is not speculation: It is a plausible and historically observed market dynamic, even if it has not yet happened to NZ ... yet

Before 2022, NZ had domestic refining capacity, and the ability to process a wide range of crude types, so that's not good.

I'd like to think a fuel supplier would consider that reducing off our diesel could mean less food being shipped to their country, but I don't have that much faith.

Luckily NZ is a boring, predictable customer, and that’s a strength. Small, steady buyers are easy to serve. They don’t distort supply chains.

Also distance is usually a vulnerability, but it has one upside: Ships bound for NZ are often dedicated voyages, not opportunistic spot‑market runs.

Once a tanker is committed to a long-haul voyage to NZ, the incentive to divert mid‑journey is lower.

Of course we do have a desperate and panicked 500 pound gorilla as a next door neighbor

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#3481927 18-Apr-2026 13:44

HarmLessSolutions

Kingdragonfly

Do you have any references that show the ship on the water redirection and shipment loss scenario is actually realistic or likely? All the references I have seen lead nowhere credible or are basically circular.

kingdragonfly

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#3482010 18-Apr-2026 20:03

gzt: Do you have any references that show the ship on the water redirection and shipment loss scenario is actually realistic or likely? All the references I have seen lead nowhere credible or are basically circular.

Just to make sure we're on the same page, in 2026 I'm not aware of any ships being redirected, but it does happen.

"Better to be on shore wishing you were at sea than at sea wishing you were on shore."

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." Benjamin Franklin)

All the reference I got are either paid industry reports, or have been pulled (for age???) from various mainstream financial websites.

Perhaps because the most recent relevant examples are from 2022, around the Russian sanctions. If I remember, LNG cargoes were widely reported as being redirected mid-voyage to higher-priced markets in Europe.

Paid reports

Oil Movements from S&P
Oil Market Report from International Energy Agency (IEA)

Both describe diversion as a normal response to price spreads and chokepoint disruptions.

You'll have to take my word that it describes how cargoes are redirected based on market signals.

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#3482015 18-Apr-2026 20:49

The first one mentions the spot market for tanker delivery. To me that does strongly imply redirection or reallocation based on market signals. Spot markets are volatile. I really doubt importers are bidding on spot markets for NZ delivery at this time.

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fastbike

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#3482031 19-Apr-2026 07:38

gzt: The first one mentions the spot market for tanker delivery. To me that does strongly imply redirection or reallocation based on market signals. Spot markets are volatile. I really doubt importers are bidding on spot markets for NZ delivery at this time.

The news reported the other day that government was underwriting the risk of price fluctuations for oil companies. So much for a free market.

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ezbee

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#3482042 19-Apr-2026 09:59

Oh contraire, its peak free market.
In a true free market, leverage is used to its fullest extent.
There may be a Pirate Code veneer of civilization on surface, but it is the 'Pirate Code'.

The companies that have fuel, and logistics to deliver it have more leverage than ever.
So deal gets sweeter to eliminate risks, preserve and enhance returns.

It would be a pity if something happened to your scheduled delivery at last moment.

I daresay that windfall profits will show up in these companies reports over time.

Our relative wealth, capability to pay a higher pump price, may seem unfair to poorer countries we outbuy?

Strait seems definitely off after a few dark tankers and cruise ships escaped, others were fired on.
Its only handful that Iran allows to transit, and USA does not then block.

A new normal?

Benoire

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#3482044 19-Apr-2026 10:05

A new normal, certainly while the current president of the USA and Israel continue their wayward approach to international relations. My big concern locally, as a civil engineer involved in public infrastructure, is that the cost to undertake works was already increasing and had jumped hugely during the Covid inflation era to the point that we have to do less whilst costing more and the as a net importer of products, this is going to play havoc on our construction and engineering industries - no need for engineers if no work can be done, no point in builders/contractors if there is nothing designed to be built, etc.

Levels of service are going to drop and our road network, which is increasingly becoming a giant ponzi scheme, is going to fail (especially if the goverment pushes ahead with even larger vehicles on the road network to satisfy efficiencies in trucking).

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