2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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498 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#3482280 19-Apr-2026 20:15

Well - you're all sure that I'm criminally wrong - and I'm equally sure that you are ;-)

I also have lots of science training, decades of experience, lots of thinking about it and looking at the real world on all the continents...
And a very different world view.
I can't prove you're wrong - only time will do that - but I surely think you are.

Yes a lot of the carbon-based fuels can be found in 'shitty' parts of the world... but contrasted to Canada, Norway, Russia (perhaps shitty), USA, which are still digging them up and using them - many of the un-shitty parts of the world with lots of available carbon have chosen - have freely chosen - not to dig it out and use it. Instead, they (Britain, Australia, NZ... you know who you are) get warm green fuzzies by buying it in from the shitty places. Morally superior.

And then they winge about the supply chain !

Next, we have the energy solution that we should have been moving to for the past 50 years - nuclear. The proven-safest (by any metric you want to debate) source of power, that started to come on stream in my earliest years - only to be regulated to death by a green Luddite mob. Except in the Green's most embarrassing country - France. Which just gets on with making nuclear power work and selling clean, reliable MWh to Britain the rest of Europe.

Instead, we (and Australia & Britain & Germany & Spain) are enjoying the fragility of a grid becoming over-reliant on un-reliables. Very luckily (and uniquely) NZ has massive hydro to carry the load when the wind drops at night.

And yes, I know about batteries - I have a 5000$ one in my house. It runs a 40th of the house for 8 hours. Scale that up for NZ - it's just silly.

I have hope that the tide is turning and that nuclear will regain traction, that hydrocarbons can relax to doing mostly aircraft, fertiliser and chemical work - and that the affluent part of the planet can get over the climate delusion and tackle some of their real problems.

So - just know that not all 'right-thinking people' think you're right ;-)

BlakJak

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#3482281 19-Apr-2026 20:17

johno1234:

Will you lot please take this stuff to an appropriate thread? This one is about security of supply under the gulf conflict. Not climate. Not energy sustainability.

I think trying to untie the two is difficult and you should be patient about the obvious overlaps between our energy dependence on oil at the big-picture level and the impacts of the Persian Gulf / Strait of Hormuz issues.

Because at the end of the day we're tilting at windmills here on a geek forum anyway. The only thing that's within our control, is to reduce our dependence on the thing which is being choked off. We as individuals can only do this at an individual level, but systemic reductions in vulnerability will only come from strategic changes.

No signature to see here, move along...

gzt

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#3482308 19-Apr-2026 21:57

pdh: USA, which are still digging them up and using them

USA's fossil energy gains have been largely due to employing the fracking process. Fracking appears to be rapidly enshittifying aquifer environments people rely on for fresh water, and it probably does have seismic implications in some areas.

Handle9

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#3482338 20-Apr-2026 05:14

pdh:

Well - you're all sure that I'm criminally wrong - and I'm equally sure that you are ;-)

I also have lots of science training, decades of experience, lots of thinking about it and looking at the real world on all the continents...

If you’ve looked at all continents then surely you’d know that Australia buys its fossil fuels for electrical generation from itself and that there is absolutely no business case for nuclear in Australia or New Zealand?

The libs tried to make nuclear an election issue in Australia and failed dismally because it’s an incredibly stupid idea. Australia and New Zealand don’t have anywhere near the population density for nuclear to make sense and likely never will do.

SMRs are tech bro venture capital fantasies rather than commercially viable technologies and there are better priced alternatives available to Australia and New Zealand. Nuclear is always pushed by a certain demographic and never makes actual commercial sense in this part of the world.

fastbike

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Ultimate Geek
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#3482406 20-Apr-2026 11:15

Back to the topic at hand ... even though the related discussions are definitely related and worthy of merit.

RNZ Morning Report had an interesting interview with Lars Jensen, former director at Maersk, and now CEO at Vespucci Maritime

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2019031628/uncertainty-over-status-of-strait-of-hormuz

TL; DR - although I highly recommend teh 5 mins it takes to listen

Q. "What is your assessment of the current status of the Strait ?"

A. "The current status is that we are at an even worse point than when we spoke a week ago"

Hold on for the ride - the current administration are completely clueless about how to handle the tsunami of disruption, economic carnage and unrest that is headed our way.
High Fuel Prices are now the least of our worries.

Otautahi Christchurch

JPNZ

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#3482500 20-Apr-2026 13:04

I find all of the "upcoming disruption" talk interesting when Diesel has fallen (In chch at least) between 60-80c over the last 10 days. Cheapest Diesel is currently $3.16, if the fuel companies had short supply you would think the opposite would happen?

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HarmLessSolutions

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#3482503 20-Apr-2026 13:13

JPNZ:

I find all of the "upcoming disruption" talk interesting when Diesel has fallen (In chch at least) between 60-80c over the last 10 days. Cheapest Diesel is currently $3.16, if the fuel companies had short supply you would think the opposite would happen?

The fossil fuel industry is very reactive to immediate issues rather than taking the longer viewpoint. Aligned with that price is very much a 'now' indication whereas long term supply is what many fuel customers are focussed on at this point. The fuel companies aren't able to factor 'what if we run out' into their pricing as that would be extremely disruptive on multiple fronts.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

SaltyNZ

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#3482526 20-Apr-2026 13:51

fastbike:

Back to the topic at hand ... even though the related discussions are definitely related and worthy of merit.

RNZ Morning Report had an interesting interview with Lars Jensen, former director at Maersk, and now CEO at Vespucci Maritime

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2019031628/uncertainty-over-status-of-strait-of-hormuz

TL; DR - although I highly recommend teh 5 mins it takes to listen

Q. "What is your assessment of the current status of the Strait ?"

A. "The current status is that we are at an even worse point than when we spoke a week ago"

Hold on for the ride - the current administration are completely clueless about how to handle the tsunami of disruption, economic carnage and unrest that is headed our way.
High Fuel Prices are now the least of our worries.

Yeah I heard that interview this morning. I don't know whether it's simply innate incompetence, trying really really hard to be not-Jacinda or both, but I really don't feel the sense of urgency from the Luxon government that they should be starting to convey. At this point it is almost 100% guaranteed that for all intents and purposes the fuel here is going to run out at current consumption levels based on the last sailing from the Persian Gulf to Asia and from Asian refineries to NZ. The gap to the next delivery to NZ assuming all is forgiven tomorrow is probably already longer than the amount here plus on the way.

I can be the neighbourhood hero shuttling my neighbours to and from the supermarket in my EV but if there's nothing to buy, that isn't going to help. So far, all they've done is put out a couple of ads recommending people think about driving a bit slower, which is pretty rich considering they spent the last two years raising all the speed limits that were previously put lower to save lives.

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SaltyNZ

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#3482530 20-Apr-2026 14:09

As an aside, if I ask the guessing machine how long it takes to sail from the Gulf to Korea, how long it takes to refine a VLCC load of oil, and then how long it takes to sail from Korea to NZ, it tells me somewhere between 40-52 days depending on how fast they sail, allowing 10 days to fully process the crude on the tanker. So that might give us a fortnight of diesel still in the country if a) everything opened up fully today, b) there are a bunch of fully loaded tankers ready to put the pedal to the metal, and c) everyone sails at top speed and the weather is good. And of course every day of delay eats that best case, and I assume that you can't just switch a refinery on like a light switch so if they run out of stuff to process it might take a day or two to prime everything again before they can start pumping out refined products.

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johno1234

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#3482531 20-Apr-2026 14:11

"At this point it is almost 100% guaranteed that for all intents and purposes the fuel here is going to run out at current consumption levels based on the last sailing from the Persian Gulf to Asia and from Asian refineries to NZ"

I don't believe that. There are multiple substitution scenarios including the refineries sourcing crude from other sources including the USA and New Zealand sourcing diesel from refineries elsewhere in the world that are not reliant on the Strait of Hormuz. All these will be expensive but prevent diesel running out. If supply is constrained there is a levels system in place to manage reduced usage. In the mean time there is no point in reducing usage as available storage is being used.

Rikkitic

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#3482537 20-Apr-2026 14:22

johno1234:

"At this point it is almost 100% guaranteed that for all intents and purposes the fuel here is going to run out at current consumption levels based on the last sailing from the Persian Gulf to Asia and from Asian refineries to NZ"

I don't believe that. There are multiple substitution scenarios including the refineries sourcing crude from other sources including the USA and New Zealand sourcing diesel from refineries elsewhere in the world that are not reliant on the Strait of Hormuz. All these will be expensive but prevent diesel running out. If supply is constrained there is a levels system in place to manage reduced usage. In the mean time there is no point in reducing usage as available storage is being used.

This is pretty much what I believe. In the worst possible case, fuel will become horrendously expensive, no doubt prompting all kinds of crime, but it won't be completely unavailable. My circumstances are such that I just can't get too worried about it. I get by on very little. Time will tell.

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Benoire

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#3482539 20-Apr-2026 14:25

At a certain price point for a country located so far away from major refining centres, availability and price essentially become the same outcome of not able to compete for the product therefore not available to NZ despite being available to purchase.

I would imagine that at some point the government will have to step in to secure the extra over for deisel for farms/agriculture movement to stores to avoid widespread food crisis even if it costs because securing a shipment of diesel for specific uses will be 'easier' than securing lots of fuel for all uses.

SaltyNZ

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#3482543 20-Apr-2026 14:28

johno1234:

"At this point it is almost 100% guaranteed that for all intents and purposes the fuel here is going to run out at current consumption levels based on the last sailing from the Persian Gulf to Asia and from Asian refineries to NZ"

I don't believe that. There are multiple substitution scenarios including the refineries sourcing crude from other sources including the USA and New Zealand sourcing diesel from refineries elsewhere in the world that are not reliant on the Strait of Hormuz. All these will be expensive but prevent diesel running out. If supply is constrained there is a levels system in place to manage reduced usage. In the mean time there is no point in reducing usage as available storage is being used.

Yeah, there are, and a bunch of tankers are already doing exactly that. But it's a lot further away (even if you go via the canals which themselves have ship size restrictions), and there are fewer tankers available to do it because of all the ones stuck on the inside of the Gulf plus all the others stuck outside it that haven't been ordered to move yet. So at best the flow of crude to Asia, and thus to us, is greatly restricted.

It may not get to "there is literally zero litres of diesel in NZ" but the prices could easily get high enough to have that practical effect for all but the most critical uses.

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deepred

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Ultimate Geek
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#3482547 20-Apr-2026 14:44

Handle9:

pdh:

Well - you're all sure that I'm criminally wrong - and I'm equally sure that you are ;-)

I also have lots of science training, decades of experience, lots of thinking about it and looking at the real world on all the continents...

If you’ve looked at all continents then surely you’d know that Australia buys its fossil fuels for electrical generation from itself and that there is absolutely no business case for nuclear in Australia or New Zealand?

The libs tried to make nuclear an election issue in Australia and failed dismally because it’s an incredibly stupid idea. Australia and New Zealand don’t have anywhere near the population density for nuclear to make sense and likely never will do.

SMRs are tech bro venture capital fantasies rather than commercially viable technologies and there are better priced alternatives available to Australia and New Zealand. Nuclear is always pushed by a certain demographic and never makes actual commercial sense in this part of the world.

If I haven't already mentioned it, nuclear energy won't be halted by the environmentalists, but by the bean counters, much as I'd like "nanofusion" to become a thing. Despite advances in technology and cost reductions, last I checked a single reactor would make Think Big look like a DIY project.

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fastbike

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Ultimate Geek
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#3482550 20-Apr-2026 15:01

johno1234:

In the mean time there is no point in reducing usage as available storage is being used.

Actually there is a massive reason to be reducing usage - we are spending an additional $200M per week on oil imports. Which means that our terms of trade are going to take a massive hit and the cost of everything imported and everything transported (i.e. everything) is going to take a big hike up. So hello inflation, coupled with economic contraction - sounds like classic hits from the 1970s all over again. https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/04/explainer-what-is-stagflation-and-why-are-we-talking-about-it-again.html

Rikkitic:

My circumstances are such that I just can't get too worried about it. I get by on very little. Time will tell.

And there we go, head in the sand attitude "I get by on very little" No you don't - every kiwi, even those that have EV (check), solar (check) don't fly overseas (check) etc still rely on hundreds of energy "slaves" powered by oil.

Now, I'll cut you some slack as you're not in charge. But for the crowd in charge - the coalition - my contempt deepens every day. They are setting us up for a massive crash through their dogma and incompetence.

Otautahi Christchurch

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