2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › 2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ... | 64

1228 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 810

Subscriber

#3469206 11-Mar-2026 22:22

fastbike:

Actually the grade of crude and the type of equipment determines the mix of distillates that come out as finished products. It's not as easy as just pouring in crude and tweaking some knobs to get more diesel.

This document gives more idea of what we are facing.

Also this video post by Ed Conway explaining how the US is caught in the same shortfall of refining ability.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

cddt

1967 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1904

#3469220 12-Mar-2026 06:35

Handle9:

Iran aren’t looking for a sustainable path here they are looking to create a strategic situation that forces the US to end the war.

Indeed, if the US and Israel stop bombing tomorrow and declare the war over, the Iranians aren't just going to say "ok back to BAU, Straights are reopened to oil tankers". Everything points to the regime wanting to maintain some kind of leverage, and the only way they can do that is through causing the US (and us) economic pain.

SaltyNZ

8865 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9545

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3469225 12-Mar-2026 07:41

Strategic reserve releases have begun. The IEA doesn't expect the war to be over by lunchtime, it seems. You would think that if the expectation was only another couple of weeks they would just wait it out. Apparently the US has not replenished its strategic reserve since the 2022 shock, according to the guy from What's Going on With Shipping, so this might actually end up hurting them more than others. (He also thinks the rumours about China doing a back-room deal with Iran to not have Chinese flagged ships attacked is plausible).

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

fastbike

443 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 317

#3469229 12-Mar-2026 08:09

SaltyNZ:

Strategic reserve releases have begun. The IEA doesn't expect the war to be over by lunchtime, it seems. You would think that if the expectation was only another couple of weeks they would just wait it out. Apparently the US has not replenished its strategic reserve since the 2022 shock, according to the guy from What's Going on With Shipping, so this might actually end up hurting them more than others. (He also thinks the rumours about China doing a back-room deal with Iran to not have Chinese flagged ships attacked is plausible).

Given credible reporting of Iran planning to lay thousands of mines in the Strait that seems to be wishful thinking.

https://newrepublic.com/article/207631/iran-mining-strait-hormuz-implications

Otautahi Christchurch

SaltyNZ

8865 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9545

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3469247 12-Mar-2026 09:10

Yeah, mines don't exactly discriminate.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

ezbee

2651 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3089

#3469281 12-Mar-2026 09:45

Ukraine has shown the modern sea mine, a sea drone is very selective.
For a thin hulled commercial ship they can be smaller.

Given the seaway is narrow , navigable bit even moreso.
Distances are similar to Ukraine/Russian front line 'grey zone' drone distances?
Problem you can't string netting over the seaway as you can with a road.

Navigation GPS is also jammed just to add to merchant marine woes.

'Ward Carroll' 'What's going on with shipping' did mention that
Aviation and Bunker Fuel for Shipping is also an issue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIynxSI7ZQg

Price will make marginal profit Air and Shipping routes unsustainable.

44,000 passengers to be hit by Air NZ cancellations over fuel, CEO says
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/589326/44-000-passengers-to-be-hit-by-air-nz-cancellations-over-fuel-ceo-says

Maybe 10-15% of the worlds fertilizer may be derived from natural gas (LNG) from gulf?
Plus Qatar, UAE etc process themselves, export fertilizer directly, total maybe more than 1/4 to 1/3.

Apparently, some China ships squawking their identification are getting through.

Geekzone support

Support Geekzone with one-off or recurring donations Donate via PressPatron.

MikeAqua

8024 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3818

#3469293 12-Mar-2026 10:15

HarmLessSolutions:

And therein lies the reasoning for those same "experts" to promote installation of as much domestic distributed generation (i.e. solar) as possible. The synergy of PV and EVs is inarguable economically for the owners of these technologies and this advantage will only increase as V2H/V2G moves into the mainstream, all without placing additional load on existing grid generation and transmission. It's all about resilience on both a personal and nationwide basis.

How does that work practically? Let's pretend I have an EV. On week-days, my car isn't at home between 7:30am to and 6:00pm or later. It isn't being charge by solar. I'm likely to arrive home, plug it in (while I'm in the garage) at peak demand time and then go inside. Best case scenario, there is some sort of differential pricing and I have a setup that automatically delays charging until 11pm. Obviously, that all changes if the car is at home during the day (WFH, retired, work at night etc). If money is limited, a battery bank at home makes more sense financially. Cheaper, and always there to capture surplus energy.

Mike

gzt

18684 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 7824

Lifetime subscriber

#3469356 12-Mar-2026 11:32

At minimum your vehicle is contributing to your morning peak power demands and your evening peak power demands when you return home. Your solar is contributing to the grid during the day.

In the best case, your home solar is contributing to the grid while your vehicle is charging from the grid while parked at or near work.

HarmLessSolutions

1228 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 810

Subscriber

#3469495 12-Mar-2026 15:39

MikeAqua:

HarmLessSolutions:

And therein lies the reasoning for those same "experts" to promote installation of as much domestic distributed generation (i.e. solar) as possible. The synergy of PV and EVs is inarguable economically for the owners of these technologies and this advantage will only increase as V2H/V2G moves into the mainstream, all without placing additional load on existing grid generation and transmission. It's all about resilience on both a personal and nationwide basis.

How does that work practically? Let's pretend I have an EV. On week-days, my car isn't at home between 7:30am to and 6:00pm or later. It isn't being charge by solar. I'm likely to arrive home, plug it in (while I'm in the garage) at peak demand time and then go inside. Best case scenario, there is some sort of differential pricing and I have a setup that automatically delays charging until 11pm. Obviously, that all changes if the car is at home during the day (WFH, retired, work at night etc). If money is limited, a battery bank at home makes more sense financially. Cheaper, and always there to capture surplus energy.

Slightly different scenario if you don't have solar or are unable to charge from your solar during the day. In this case the EV battery can provide electricity supply to your home when you plug it in at 6:00pm until 11:00pm which offsets your peak grid demand. Then schedule to charge on overnight low supply rate until 7:00am. Off to work on a charged battery and just repeat procedure again that evening.

Weekends, assuming the EV is not in use, it can be charged from solar and/or on offpeak rates. The reality is that the cost per kWh of storage capacity is significantly lower when the battery is in an EV than for static home batteries in many cases. The way to best utilise that significant storage capacity will differ from owner to owner.

Also a V2H set-up can allow you to use your EV to bring electricity home from a public charger at times when your grid connection is disrupted.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

fastbike

443 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 317

#3469505 12-Mar-2026 16:14

I like the analysis in this article, rather than just duking it out on price there is a nice logic and some justice in the proposal for TEQs

What could Fuel Rationing Look Like ? 5 Options

Otautahi Christchurch

ascroft

437 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 177

#3469510 12-Mar-2026 16:31

If I was the US I would now block the straights at one end and say until everyone can go through safely no one is to go through.......... Make one rule for all.

Think it will be impossible otherwise.

PS If the US didn't think this was going to happen they must have rocks in their head. They need to have read The Art of War cover to cover. Don't think Pete H. reads many books however.

"Artificial Intelligence" - aka Machine Learning 2.0

Apple TV

Stream your favourite shows now on Apple TV (affiliate link).

Handle9

11925 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9675

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3469511 12-Mar-2026 16:38

ascroft:

If I was the US I would now block the straights at one end and say until everyone can go through safely no one is to go through.......... Make one rule for all.

Think it will be impossible otherwise.

M.

PS If the US didn't think this was going to happen they must have rocks in their head. They need to have read The Art of War cover to cover. Don't think Pete H. reads many books however.

If you want to take this from a regional conflict to a global one that’d be a great way to do it.

HarmLessSolutions

1228 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 810

Subscriber

#3469514 12-Mar-2026 16:43

fastbike:

I like the analysis in this article, rather than just duking it out on price there is a nice logic and some justice in the proposal for TEQs

What could Fuel Rationing Look Like ? 5 Options

An interesting strategy and definitely a needed one for New Zealand to avoid choas in the coming weeks and months.

Also in regard to the ongoing mispelling in regards to the STRAIT of Hormuz by various other posters. https://www.grammarly.com/commonly-confused-words/straight-vs-strait

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

wellygary

8810 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5287

#3469519 12-Mar-2026 16:48

ascroft:

If I was the US I would now block the straights at one end and say until everyone can go through safely no one is to go through.......... Make one rule for all.

If Iran mine the Strait that's exactly what will happen... No transit even for buddies like China ....

What's Ironic is that neither the US or Israel are actually threatened by a strait closure from a fuel security POV, (US transits less than 8% from Arab states, while Israel has pipelines from the caucuses and other places (hence why Iran attacked Azerbaijan ) - this is likely why the US are not doing more about it...

They will feel the price impact, but certainly not the fear of oil being turned off like many places are ...

(There will be Chunks of Texas and North Dakota living it large at the Moment)

SaltyNZ

8865 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9545

Trusted

2degrees

Lifetime subscriber

#3469520 12-Mar-2026 16:57

ascroft:

PS If the US didn't think this was going to happen they must have rocks in their head.

Look, if Keir Starmer is "no Churchill" then Trump is no James Buchanan.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ... | 64