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sen8or
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  #3431430 6-Nov-2025 10:42
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In the 1980s, Japan was operating / thinking like it was the 2000s, now, in the 2020s, the Japanese are still operating / thinking like its the 2000s.

 

I have a feeling there will be more Chinese brands to come here in the next few months / years (Dongping through Armstrongs, Denza, xping and maybe xiomi), but can our low volume market handle umpteen different brands all effectively selling the same car. Brands will have to stand out from the crowd to sell the volume that the Chinese will be looking for to maintain support for the market.




richms
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  #3431433 6-Nov-2025 10:50
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Gavin has a video coming out tonight that might be interesting.

 





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dafman
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  #3431522 6-Nov-2025 12:19
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Can't cite source, found this graph on Bluesky

 

NZ bev market share




HarmLessSolutions
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  #3431527 6-Nov-2025 12:26
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dafman:

 

Can't cite source, found this graph on Bluesky

 

[snip]

 

Not unexpected but it would be interesting to see a similar graph with all new vehicle sales for perspective. The drop off in the last quarter shown could well be related to people's economic circumstances rather than EV preference. The average Kiwi is really struggling with their day to day living expenses and vehicle purchase is not even on their radar right now.

 

Also we are currently only about 1/3 of the way through Q4 of 2025 so can only be partial data for this period. Just goes to show the risks of repeating unsupported posts from social media sources I guess.





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johno1234
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  #3431645 6-Nov-2025 14:21
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I would be concerned about buying a new BEV right now as some potential game-changing battery technologies are arriving soon that could increase depreciation of current models.


richms
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  #3431648 6-Nov-2025 14:27
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The whole 'new technology right around the corner' playbook has been worn out by toyota and their solid state battery promises. Meanwhile people that ignored that crap and got a car years ago have had a nice efficient cheap to run car for 3-4 years now.

 

 

 

Edit: oh, and hydrogen. Any day now it will have all its problems solved and be no better than an battery EV but with more failure points.





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robjg63
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  #3431649 6-Nov-2025 14:28
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HarmLessSolutions:

 

dafman:

 

Can't cite source, found this graph on Bluesky

 

[snip]

 

Not unexpected but it would be interesting to see a similar graph with all new vehicle sales for perspective. The drop off in the last quarter shown could well be related to people's economic circumstances rather than EV preference. The average Kiwi is really struggling with their day to day living expenses and vehicle purchase is not even on their radar right now.

 

Also we are currently only about 1/3 of the way through Q4 of 2025 so can only be partial data for this period. Just goes to show the risks of repeating unsupported posts from social media sources I guess.

 

 

The graph shows EV sales as a percentage (see the left hand side). Q4 2025 is yet to complete (for any vehicle type).





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johno1234
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  #3431660 6-Nov-2025 15:20
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richms:

 

The whole 'new technology right around the corner' playbook has been worn out by toyota and their solid state battery promises. Meanwhile people that ignored that crap and got a car years ago have had a nice efficient cheap to run car for 3-4 years now.

 

 

 

Edit: oh, and hydrogen. Any day now it will have all its problems solved and be no better than an battery EV but with more failure points.

 

 

Toyota? LOL!

 

Sodium batteries expected late this year or early '26 at initial 20%-30% cheaper than LFP and less/no reliance on scarce minerals.


MikeFly
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  #3431663 6-Nov-2025 15:25
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johno1234:

 

richms:

 

The whole 'new technology right around the corner' playbook has been worn out by toyota and their solid state battery promises. Meanwhile people that ignored that crap and got a car years ago have had a nice efficient cheap to run car for 3-4 years now.

 

 

 

Edit: oh, and hydrogen. Any day now it will have all its problems solved and be no better than an battery EV but with more failure points.

 

 

Toyota? LOL!

 

Sodium batteries expected late this year or early '26 at initial 20%-30% cheaper than LFP and less/no reliance on scarce minerals.

 

 

 

 

Sweet, sodium batteries in 8 weeks.


richms
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  #3431664 6-Nov-2025 15:25
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So one part of the car may cost 30% less? Is that a reason to wait it out? Not in my mind.





Richard rich.ms

johno1234
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  #3431666 6-Nov-2025 15:38
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richms:

 

So one part of the car may cost 30% less? Is that a reason to wait it out? Not in my mind.

 

 

The most expensive part of the car, yes. And then like all the other battery chemistries the price will continue to tumble as production scales up and development costs are covered. 

 

Each to his own but the historical depreciation on BEVs has been severe as the batteries have evolved and this can only add on top. I'm avoiding until this shakes out.


 
 
 

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johno1234
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  #3431667 6-Nov-2025 15:40
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MikeFly:

 

Sweet, sodium batteries in 8 weeks.

 

 

You can buy them right now in China.


wellygary
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  #3431668 6-Nov-2025 15:44
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johno1234:

 

Sodium batteries expected late this year or early '26 at initial 20%-30% cheaper than LFP and less/no reliance on scarce minerals.

 

 

Li Batteries had become hugely cheaper over the past 10 years - car makers didn't make cheaper cars, they just stick more in them,,,

 

 


huckster
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  #3431692 6-Nov-2025 16:52
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wellygary:

 

Li Batteries had become hugely cheaper over the past 10 years - car makers didn't make cheaper cars, they just stick more in them,,,

 

 

I think they go where they will make the most margin first - the larger vehicles which have all the bells and whistles. Once they get those production and supply lines ticking along nicely, then they start to work on the models which will sell in greater volume but at a lower margin.


Scott3
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  #3431701 6-Nov-2025 17:12
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dafman:

 

Can't cite source, found this graph on Bluesky

 

NZ bev market share

 

 

 

 

It's been lifted from here:

 

https://evdb.nz/ev-stats

 

 

 

I don't think it is great practice to include a partial quarter in the graph so prefer the monthly version



The plumet at the end of 2023 was the phase out of the clean car rebate, and announcement of RUC starting in March 24? Lost of demand brough forward. Also lots of dealers registering heaps of stock as demos to claim the rebate. (allowed as long as they don't sell them within 3 months).

June 24 was a big month due to the Model Y facelift initial orders being delivered, and BYD running a $5k of their entire (in stock) range promotion for Feildays. They have just announced the same promo for the rest of 2025, so we should see a good Nov / Dec.


 

Also of interest is PHEV sales doing well relative to BEV Last month PHEV's outsold BEV's. The BYD shark 6 is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.


 

 

 

Also interesting that (non plug in) hybrid is now the dominant powertrain for new vehicles in NZ, making up 39.2% of sales last month:






 

 

 

 


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