EV (electric vehicle) News and Discussion

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › EV (electric vehicle) News and Discussion

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#3431703 6-Nov-2025 17:36

johno1234:The most expensive part of the car, yes. And then like all the other battery chemistries the price will continue to tumble as production scales up and development costs are covered.

Each to his own but the historical depreciation on BEVs has been severe as the batteries have evolved and this can only add on top. I'm avoiding until this shakes out.

depreciation is the cost that seems often ignored. Yes, an EV owner might have had very low fuel costs on their EV for the last three years, but it’s cost them $8k per year in depreciation while I’ve spent $3k per year on petrol.

I’m sure my next car will be an EV but I’m holding onto my reasonably efficient petrol car until the silly EV depreciation has gone

Scott3

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#3431705 6-Nov-2025 17:40

johno1234:

I would be concerned about buying a new BEV right now as some potential game-changing battery technologies are arriving soon that could increase depreciation of current models.

Yes, EV's are pretty much a tech style product, with capabilities advancing rapidly. As with pretty much all tech style products you need to decide when it makes sense to you, and then hit the button. Cool new things area always around the corner.

Also worth noting we have hit a period of relative stability in the EV space. Large scale automotive grade battery production is now fairly mature, and further large gains require tech breakthroughs (or compromises like higher cost or worse energy density).

We own 2014 leaf with a 24 kWh battery. 30 kWh version came out Late 2015, 40 kWh version came out late 2017, 62 kWh version came out early 2019. Third gen leaf (2025) has 52 kWh & 75 kWh batteries. Clearly we are seeing a taper off in cadence of gains.

To give another example, the LR version of the Ioniq 5 launched in 2021 with a 72.6 kWh battery, It moved to 77 KWh, and the 2024 facelift got a 84 kWH battery. No longer are we seeing more than doubling in a few years.

Most nicer EV's now have batteries in the 70 - 110 kWh range.

-----------

In terms of upcoming chemistries:

Solid state: Basically the bees knees. Extreme cycle life, massive energy density, good safety, doesn't care about temp. But extremely hard to build (very poor yields). Looking to move out of the lab, and into super high value applications like space next. These will end up in higher value applications like aerospace, phones and supercars potentially a decade before you see it in a Toyota.

Sodum ion - Cheap, durable, safe. But very low energy density (both volume and weight). - Good for things like golf cart's, and ultra cheap, city focused EV's.

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Personally I think we are going to see small iterative gains with current LFP and NMC chemistries. (especially the LFP).

Really these batteries serve most used cases well already.

johno1234:

You can buy them [sodium batteries] right now in China.

Yeah, but energy density (by both weight and volume is very low).

Below is a JAQ demo car. with a 25 kWh Sodium battery.

The JAC demo EV is powered by a cheaper sodium-ion battery developed by Hina Battery Technologies. Photo: Weibo

Hard to see there being a big market in NZ given one can buy a 2018 Leaf 40 kWh (a much larger, more powerful car) for $13k

HarmLessSolutions

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#3431709 6-Nov-2025 17:51

huckster:

wellygary:

Li Batteries had become hugely cheaper over the past 10 years - car makers didn't make cheaper cars, they just stick more in them,,,

I think they go where they will make the most margin first - the larger vehicles which have all the bells and whistles. Once they get those production and supply lines ticking along nicely, then they start to work on the models which will sell in greater volume but at a lower margin.

It will be interesting to see how Na batteries impact on the static ('home') storage sector. Weight & energy density not so important but how big are the returns in this market for battery manufacturers?

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HarmLessSolutions

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#3431712 6-Nov-2025 18:06

Scott3:

Also interesting that (non plug in) hybrid is now the dominant powertrain for new vehicles in NZ, making up 39.2% of sales last month:

It will be interesting to see where these numbers go when universal RUCs are rolled out. The economics of running a hybrid, including PHEVs, will be changed significantly.

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MikeFly

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#3431718 6-Nov-2025 19:05

johno1234:

MikeFly:

Sweet, sodium batteries in 8 weeks.

You can buy them right now in China.

In cars? Sweet again

dafman

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#3431719 6-Nov-2025 19:12

Scott3:

I don't think it is great practice to include a partial quarter in the graph so prefer the monthly version

Agree, I should have been more alert to that.

I’m warming to electric. My next car will likely have an electric component. Probably a plug in hybrid so I can use pure EV for day to day, but utilise petrol for long range trips.

The coming 2026 Rav 4 GR sport looks to be my perfect car, just worried what price they may attach to it.

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#3431779 6-Nov-2025 20:35

shk292:

depreciation is the cost that seems often ignored. Yes, an EV owner might have had very low fuel costs on their EV for the last three years, but it’s cost them $8k per year in depreciation while I’ve spent $3k per year on petrol.

Bit annoying, sure - but having had EVs now since 2018 there is no way I would ever go back to petrol. Even if they were cheaper to run.

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everettpsycho

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#3431786 6-Nov-2025 21:14

Just saw ecotricity have confirmed with BYD the pricing of new models, we are now below $30k rrp on an EV with the 30kWh atto 1 set to be the cheapest car in their line up. The beefed up version with more battery and power is $37k.

Atto 2 also confirmed at $40k for the entry level option.

Atto 1 is still very much a runa out town car at this price but good to see it's come down to the pricing of some petrol hatchbacks to be somewhat competitive in that segment.

Obraik

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#3431799 6-Nov-2025 22:19

Cheaper than a petrol hybrid Toyota Yaris and only a wee bit more than a manual Suzuki Swift. Even the top spec Atto 1 is cheaper than the cheapest Yaris...

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#3431805 6-Nov-2025 23:19

johno1234:

Sodium batteries expected late this year or early '26 at initial 20%-30% cheaper than LFP and less/no reliance on scarce minerals.

Have you done the maths on energy density ? They may work for stationary storage but not for traction.

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Scott3

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#3431806 6-Nov-2025 23:23

everettpsycho:

Just saw ecotricity have confirmed with BYD the pricing of new models, we are now below $30k rrp on an EV with the 30kWh atto 1 set to be the cheapest car in their line up. The beefed up version with more battery and power is $37k.

Atto 2 also confirmed at $40k for the entry level option.

Atto 1 is still very much a runa out town car at this price but good to see it's come down to the pricing of some petrol hatchbacks to be somewhat competitive in that segment.

$30k for the Atto1 essential
$36k for the Atto1 premium

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gzt

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#3431807 6-Nov-2025 23:33

johno1234:
richms: So one part of the car may cost 30% less? Is that a reason to wait it out? Not in my mind.
The most expensive part of the car, yes. And then like all the other battery chemistries the price will continue to tumble as production scales up and development costs are covered. Each to his own but the historical depreciation on BEVs has been severe as the batteries have evolved and this can only add on top. I'm avoiding until this shakes out.

On Leaf with no cooling yes. Most everything else has very little battery degradation and holds value.

There was a general EV sales slump a short time back leading to deep discounts on new product for run out. Imo mostly a one off event although there are some brands that do it semi-regularly and easily avoided to reduce risk if is a concern.

For most people imo the still upcoming new battery technologies won't make a big difference. Fast charge is already fast enough for most people.

SaltyNZ

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#3431822 7-Nov-2025 07:35

gzt:
For most people imo the still upcoming new battery technologies won't make a big difference. Fast charge is already fast enough for most people.

Yeah this whole "I can't buy an EV until I can drive from Cape Reinga to the Bluff while towing my boat without any toilet breaks" thing is just complete rubbish. Just charge at one of the many cafes or service stations that you will 100% be stopping at anyway along the way ...

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johno1234

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#3431837 7-Nov-2025 08:17

The other thing about depreciation: you can always minimise it by holding onto that asset for a long time. Folks with older EVs are seeing that depreciation % dwindle every year.

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#3431847 7-Nov-2025 08:43

fastbike:

johno1234:

Sodium batteries expected late this year or early '26 at initial 20%-30% cheaper than LFP and less/no reliance on scarce minerals.

Have you done the maths on energy density ? They may work for stationary storage but not for traction.

They are currently not as dense as LFP, but are improving. There are production EVs on the market for about a year now with Na-ion batteries which will help prove out the cycle lifetime.

But yes the big opportunity is really in stationary applications where the weight penalty doesn't matter, freeing up the lithium for vehicles.

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