2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3501997 11-Jun-2026 11:35

SaltyNZ:

If true, that's incredible bad luck for the chopper pilots. The entire Strait of Hormuz, and they just happen to be within an approximately 1m x 1m box the drone will be flying through.

I take your point, but the box is somewhat larger as it is the area of the main and tail tail rotor discs and every thing in between. Perhaps the helicopter was shooting it down and got caught up in the resulting debris.

tstone

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#3501998 11-Jun-2026 11:39

Handle9:

deepred:

In other words, the most likely outcome is a cross between the Korean War armistice, and Britain's embarrassing withdrawal in the Suez Crisis?

The most likely outcome is the same as the Obama deal that Trump tore up, started a war and then got the same deal.\

All hail the art of the (shit) deal.

Everyone's been too polite about the abject failure of Trump's 'policies'. 'Winning' to him means a worse deal than before, as long as it's his deal then it's all good. When is this going to end and someone takes a stand against his insanity? People are dying, losing their jobs and the USA is no longer a serious country. Rant over...

wellygary

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#3502004 11-Jun-2026 12:01

tstone:

Everyone's been too polite about the abject failure of Trump's 'policies'. 'Winning' to him means a worse deal than before, as long as it's his deal then it's all good. When is this going to end and someone takes a stand against his insanity? People are dying, losing their jobs and the USA is no longer a serious country. Rant over...

The US is discovering the same thing that Russia discovered in 2022, the advent of Drones has dramatically enhanced the ability of smaller powers to project power,

Drones allow counties spending millions to obtain the power that previously you had to spend billions on..

gzt

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#3502067 11-Jun-2026 13:13

SaltyNZ: They did that yesterday. Today's attack is because Trump says:
"We were really close to the deal but they keep tapping us along, they keep playing us for suckers," he said. "You know what, they dealt with some very stupid presidents."

That probably means Netanyahu called him up yesterday and made him feel very small.

deepred

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#3502081 11-Jun-2026 14:16

wellygary:

tstone:

Everyone's been too polite about the abject failure of Trump's 'policies'. 'Winning' to him means a worse deal than before, as long as it's his deal then it's all good. When is this going to end and someone takes a stand against his insanity? People are dying, losing their jobs and the USA is no longer a serious country. Rant over...

The US is discovering the same thing that Russia discovered in 2022, the advent of Drones has dramatically enhanced the ability of smaller powers to project power,

Drones allow counties spending millions to obtain the power that previously you had to spend billions on..

The Military-Industrial Complex likely wouldn't allow it to happen in America, too many F-35s, Bradleys & Ospreys that wouldn't be sold.

"I regret to say that we of the F.B.I. are powerless to act in cases of oral-genital intimacy, unless it has in some way obstructed interstate commerce." — J. Edgar Hoover

"Create a society that values material things above all else. Strip it of industry. Raise taxes for the poor and reduce them for the rich and for corporations. Prop up failed financial institutions with public money. Ask for more tax, while vastly reducing public services. Put adverts everywhere, regardless of people's ability to afford the things they advertise. Allow the cost of food and housing to eclipse people's ability to pay for them. Light blue touch paper." — Andrew Maxwell

Eva888

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#3503045 15-Jun-2026 09:16

The 39th version of 'Victory, the war is won, just waiting for the signatures,' announced on Friday, so same exact victory every week. The Brent is dropping now at $82 per barrel when it was predicted the war would take it to over $150, maybe $200 we were warned.

I am War prepped with supplies and the spinach is trying to survive winter. Air NZ and Qantas keep emailing offering cheap fares for holidays and other Airlines have changed their routing. The supermarket shelves are full. Bags of rice are on sale weekly, no shortage. Frankly this feels like a big, beautiful non event especially here in NZ.

All the political and war analysts which I avidly follow are still citing pending economic doom and decline. One predicted the war would carry on till September. My petrol in the weekend was only $2.89 via PacnSave. Am I missing something

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fastbike

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#3503051 15-Jun-2026 09:30

Enjoy it while you can

Edit: typo

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geoffwnz

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#3503052 15-Jun-2026 09:32

So, based on that graph, the current mess is barely a blip in the overall ebb and flow.

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johno1234

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#3503066 15-Jun-2026 09:56

Eva888:

The 39th version of 'Victory, the war is won, just waiting for the signatures,' announced on Friday, so same exact victory every week. The Brent is dropping now at $82 per barrel when it was predicted the war would take it to over $150, maybe $200 we were warned.

I am War prepped with supplies and the spinach is trying to survive winter. Air NZ and Qantas keep emailing offering cheap fares for holidays and other Airlines have changed their routing. The supermarket shelves are full. Bags of rice are on sale weekly, no shortage. Frankly this feels like a big, beautiful non event especially here in NZ.

All the political and war analysts which I avidly follow are still citing pending economic doom and decline. One predicted the war would carry on till September. My petrol in the weekend was only $2.89 via PacnSave. Am I missing something

A lot of "expert" predictions haven't aged well. Seems like there are too many unknowns including quite a lot of "dark" tanker traffic leaking through the Hormuz blockades.

johno1234

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#3503070 15-Jun-2026 09:58

fastbike:

Enjoy it while you can

Edit: typo

Enjoy what? The SPR operating as intended? If so then yes!

wellygary

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#3503081 15-Jun-2026 10:30

johno1234:

Enjoy what? The SPR operating as intended? If so then yes!

An interesting take away is that the the national or strategic oil reserves will actually profit from this evet,

They have released considerable stocks at "crisis pricing" ~$100 USD, - now they will have an ability to refill themselves gradually at closer to $80 USD...

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fastbike

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#3503085 15-Jun-2026 10:44

johno1234:

Enjoy what? The SPR operating as intended? If so then yes!

Enjoy the happy days scenario, while you can.

Back to the chart. The SPR is not a bottomless pit. It is currently drawing down close to 10M barrels per week, and that is with demand destruction kicking in.

Meanwhile SPR has various levels of constraints, US military requirements are that is stays above 243 before demand side curtailment starts.

The US driving season starts in a couple of weeks so the rate of drawdown will increase if demand does not decrease. Pricing may dampen demand ?

So the various analysts saying that there will be a critical point reached in the northern summer. The crisis shows no sign of abating, we've been told that the strait will reopen tomorrow since April.

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SaltyNZ

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#3503114 15-Jun-2026 12:37

johno1234:

Enjoy what? The SPR operating as intended? If so then yes!

The oil taps aren't just going to turn on overnight and everything goes back to BAU, even if Lloyds and the other insurers truly believe they can lower premiums back to pre-war levels (which is the real key here to whether the Strait is "open" or "closed"). That SPR is going to continue to drop for weeks or months as everything attempts to rebalance yet again. And that's only if the peace holds. Which is a big if, both because the reason Trump started this clusterf*** in the first place has not yet been resolved, and also because Netanyahu continues bombing Beirut.

Trump will need to spin very hard in order to convince himself he got a better deal than Obama did, and if he can't, this could all collapse again. Once again: Iran has no reason to trust the US or Israel on this because they started bombing Iran while in the final phases of negotiating a Trump-acceptable deal back in February. After they bombed Iran while in the final phases of negotiating a deal in June 2025. And Israel can go and clusterf*** it all over again by doing the same thing again at any stage in the next 60 days.

It isn't over yet by a long shot.

As an aside, am I the only one who is irrationally annoyed every time they hear Trump say "some people call it the nuclear dust"? No, Trump, nobody calls it "nuclear dust" you moron. Just you. Ugh.

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HarmLessSolutions

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#3503117 15-Jun-2026 12:57

SaltyNZ:

As an aside, am I the only one who is irrationally annoyed every time they hear Trump say "some people call it the nuclear dust"? No, Trump, nobody calls it "nuclear dust" you moron. Just you. Ugh.

What gets me is that the media still report Trump's rantings as though they can be relied on as being factual. That ship sailed long ago.

I'm currently in Perth at the end of a 4 week UK trip and curious to see what the situation actually is on the ground when we arrive back in NZ tomorrow morning.

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cddt

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#3503121 15-Jun-2026 13:08

SaltyNZ:

As an aside, am I the only one who is irrationally annoyed every time they hear Trump

No, no you are not.

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