2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3503929 18-Jun-2026 11:23

Batman:

also breaking. the potus have just told everyone (confirming what everyone had suspected anyways) that the US currently has 4 weeks of oil reserves remaining ...

so i'm pretty sure this is going to get signed on Friday

From "The Hill" in regard to the 4 weeks comment

"It’s not entirely clear whether Trump was referring to U.S. or global oil inventories. The White House declined to elaborate, referring The Hill back to Trump’s original remarks."

But given that its a Trump pronouncement YMMV significantly on whether it actually bears any resemblance to the real world

wellygary

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#3503930 18-Jun-2026 11:26

Batman:

also breaking. the potus have just told everyone (confirming what everyone had suspected anyways) that the US currently has 4 weeks of oil reserves remaining ...

so i'm pretty sure this is going to get signed on Friday

Apparently its been signed already... (a.ka. Trump's bored with this now)

"Donald Trump on Wednesday signed the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war with Iran, a White House official told Reuters.

The text of the agreement has been officially signed by the presidents of both sides, Iran state media reported, citing foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jun/17/middle-east-war-iran-israel-us-donald-trump-hezbollah-lebanon-peace-deal-netanyahu-latest-news-updated

Handle9

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#3503983 18-Jun-2026 14:27

eracode:

Usually it's the vanquished who pay reparations - not the 'victor'.

Cough, the Marshall plan, cough.

johno1234

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#3503989 18-Jun-2026 14:34

Handle9:

eracode:

Usually it's the vanquished who pay reparations - not the 'victor'.

Cough, the Marshall plan, cough.

although the Marshall plan was towards nations that were now friendly, i.e. not part of the Soviet bloc post WW2. Can't see Iran as such.

johno1234

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#3504008 18-Jun-2026 14:43

People are still discussing the $300 billion figure as if it is a grant (like the Marshall Plan) from the USA. This is not the case. It is a private investment package funded from the USA and Gulf states and it is subject to continuing adherence to the agreement.

"The new fund is a private investment vehicle, not a reconstruction or reparations programme and will not include any government ⁠money or grants, the source said, adding that companies based in the U.S., the Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America and Africa have agreed to commit financing."

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iran-deal-includes-300-billion-fund-more-than-half-which-already-committed-2026-06-16/

wellygary

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#3504014 18-Jun-2026 15:10

Handle9:

eracode:

Usually it's the vanquished who pay reparations - not the 'victor'.

Cough, the Marshall plan, cough.

Yeah, but for their investment they got to do significant meddling in the construction of the post WW2 political-economic architecture across the continent,

They had fingers in the creation and management of the OEEC and Euro Coal and Steel Community (the nascent forerunners of the EU). The German constitution, The marginalisation of communist influences in France, and pushing France to remain in French Indochina....

There is no way this level of influence exists over post conflict Iran :)

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SaltyNZ

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#3504017 18-Jun-2026 15:20

On top of which Trump is demanding the Gulf states loan money to Iran to rebuild Iran. Iran, who blew up a bunch of the Gulf States' stuff, and cost them a ton of lost revenue. And Iran only did that because the US started bombing them.

The country who started the war is forcing the innocent third parties to pay the not exactly innocent but definitely not guilty party for its rebuilding. Maybe these investments will pay back, maybe they won't. But in the meantime if I was Saudi Arabia, Oman etc. I would be telling Trump to go **** himself with his investment fund. He put the bullseye on their backs and then failed to shield them. US protection? Not much better than Russian protection.

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MikeAqua

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#3504058 18-Jun-2026 16:59

SaltyNZ:

On top of which Trump is demanding the Gulf states loan money to Iran to rebuild Iran. Iran, who blew up a bunch of the Gulf States' stuff, and cost them a ton of lost revenue. And Iran only did that because the US started bombing them.

To be fair Iran has been, via its various proxies, blowing stuff up and causing bloodshed and chaos around the around the gulf for decades.

Mike

johno1234

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#3504063 18-Jun-2026 17:05

SaltyNZ:

On top of which Trump is demanding the Gulf states loan money to Iran to rebuild Iran. I

I don't think this is correct. Trump can't demand the Gulf states do anything, let alone private investors in the US. According to the Reuters article I posted earlier, this investment fund already existed prior to the MOU. They will only invest if the environment is such that it is in their own interests to invest. Stability and rule-following by Iran would be in all the Gulf state's interests and the MOU, release of frozen funds, continued opening of Hormuz are all explicitly subject to Iran and the USA sticking to the MOU.

gzt

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#3504065 18-Jun-2026 17:14

SaltyNZ: On top of which Trump is demanding the Gulf states loan money to Iran to rebuild Iran. Iran, who blew up a bunch of the Gulf States' stuff, and cost them a ton of lost revenue. And Iran only did that because the US started bombing them.

There is an additional factor. USA has military bases in those countries. Some of which were used for Iran related missions with or without the permission of the countries concerned.

johno1234

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#3504084 18-Jun-2026 18:31

gzt:
SaltyNZ: On top of which Trump is demanding the Gulf states loan money to Iran to rebuild Iran. Iran, who blew up a bunch of the Gulf States' stuff, and cost them a ton of lost revenue. And Iran only did that because the US started bombing them.

There is an additional factor. USA has military bases in those countries. Some of which were used for Iran related missions with or without the permission of the countries concerned.

Which/when were those? I recall some declining permission but not any operations made without permission.

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Batman

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#3504337 19-Jun-2026 07:45

activity tracker in the Strait of Hormuz

https://edition.cnn.com/world/strait-of-hormuz-tracker-vis

wellygary

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#3504358 19-Jun-2026 09:26

Batman:

activity tracker in the Strait of Hormuz

https://edition.cnn.com/world/strait-of-hormuz-tracker-vis

Here is one of the better trackers I found, ( Most are just AIS reposters, and lots of transits are still running dark)

They estimated 13 out and 13 in yesterday

https://insights.windward.ai/

Eva888

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#3504386 19-Jun-2026 11:10

MikeAqua:

To be fair Iran has been, via its various proxies, blowing stuff up and causing bloodshed and chaos around the around the gulf for decades.

Iran had a doctrine of no first strike for many years and a religious fatwa against nuclear weapons, but this policy is now discussed as likely to change, possibly to pre-emptive after;

June 2025 Israel attacked Iran unprovoked while a deal was being negotiated with the US, 12 day war.

Feb 2026 Israel attacked Iran again, unprovoked, joined by the US.

Reminder also that in 1980 Iran was invaded by Iraq, US involved and millions of casualties on all sides.

History of the region is complex and has a way of being diluted to favour agendas by some media. We are way off topic now and no inclination to become a politics thread.

I filled my car at $2.70 yesterday so longer trips are on again and my prepper spinach has stopped growing because the sun no longer shines where it was planted. The joys of facing South in winter.

johno1234

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#3504388 19-Jun-2026 11:17

Eva888:

MikeAqua:

To be fair Iran has been, via its various proxies, blowing stuff up and causing bloodshed and chaos around the around the gulf for decades.

Iran had a doctrine of no first strike for many years and a religious fatwa against nuclear weapons, but this policy is now discussed as likely to change, possibly to pre-emptive after;

June 2025 Israel attacked Iran unprovoked while a deal was being negotiated with the US, 12 day war.

Feb 2026 Israel attacked Iran again, unprovoked, joined by the US.

Reminder also that in 1980 Iran was invaded by Iraq, US involved and millions of casualties on all sides.

History of the region is complex and has a way of being diluted to favour agendas by some media. We are way off topic now and no inclination to become a politics thread.

I filled my car at $2.70 yesterday so longer trips are on again and my prepper spinach has stopped growing because the sun no longer shines where it was planted. The joys of facing South in winter.

To say Israel was unprovoked by Iran is incorrect and I would take the religious fatwa against nukes with a grain of salt the size of a mountain. Iran may have a no first strike policy but can get around that via its proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis who are simply an extension of Iran.

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