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605 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3196995 18-Feb-2024 12:15

Test squad for Australia

Tim Southee (c)
Tom Blundell (wk)
Devon Conway
Matt Henry
Scott Kuggeleijn
Tom Latham
Daryl Mitchell
Will O’Rourke
Glenn Phillips
Rachin Ravindra
Mitchell Santner
Neil Wagner
Kane Williamson
Will Young

Jamieson is out with another stress fracture in his lower back, with some reporting it could be up to another year on the sidelines. Very disappointing for him, I do wonder if we'll ever see him back at the top level consistantly.

Henry is apparently "sore" and has now been rested from the upcoming T20's in order to be fit for the tests. They've picked Kuggeleijn again, bit of a retrograde step, though he has been in decent form domestically apparently. Move hasn't gone over well judging by some comment on the NZC socials.

Also disappointing they are not bringing Boult into the team. The reason given doesn't really wash with me, he's quality, he knows what test cricket is about, they should have kept faith with his demonstrated ability to do the job.

The side I'd select for the 1st Test in batting order

Latham (c)
Young/Ravindra
Williamson
Ravindra/Young
Mitchell
Phillips
Blundell
Kuggeleijn
Henry
Wagner
O'Rourke

The side I think Stead will select

Latham
Conway
Williamson
Ravindra
Mitchell
Young
Blundell
Santner
Henry
Southee (c)
O'Rourke

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3197175 18-Feb-2024 18:59

thermonuclear:

Jamieson is out with another stress fracture in his lower back, with some reporting it could be up to another year on the sidelines. Very disappointing for him, I do wonder if we'll ever see him back at the top level consistantly.

It is incredibly sad news, he is outrightly our best bowler at home and is more than handy with the willow. Those two deliveries, the in swinger from out why and up high is incredibly difficult for the batsman to play on length putting the swing and speed to the side, compounded by the short ball of a near good length. No broken fingers for the aussies dang it ;-p (jks).

O'rourke has burst into FC and now very quickly into the Test side, just in time to offer something similar but largely a corridor bowler.

Kugs has pace, but very much an all rounder, FC nearly under 30 with the ball, nearly at 30 with the bat. But hes only played the single test. Those kind of runs are in short supply in the tail (if not in the entire team outside Kane and Daryl). So it is a good option imo.

But hard to see them not select Wags and Henry. all of our tail can slog mind, now Boult is not in contention. Henry showed it with some of the cleanest 6 hitting Ive seen, then our first innings Wags showed something similar. Southee somewhat more technical, just lacks application. So Im a bit torn between Kugs and Wags, given Wags despite being a capable left arm in swinger, is largely on dimensional in his tactics, which I do not see succeeding vs the aussies now hes lost some pace.

thermonuclear

605 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3197262 18-Feb-2024 21:35

TeaLeaf:

It is incredibly sad news, he is outrightly our best bowler at home and is more than handy with the willow. Those two deliveries, the in swinger from out why and up high is incredibly difficult for the batsman to play on length putting the swing and speed to the side, compounded by the short ball of a near good length. No broken fingers for the aussies dang it ;-p (jks).

O'rourke has burst into FC and now very quickly into the Test side, just in time to offer something similar but largely a corridor bowler.

Kugs has pace, but very much an all rounder, FC nearly under 30 with the ball, nearly at 30 with the bat. But hes only played the single test. Those kind of runs are in short supply in the tail (if not in the entire team outside Kane and Daryl). So it is a good option imo.

But hard to see them not select Wags and Henry. all of our tail can slog mind, now Boult is not in contention. Henry showed it with some of the cleanest 6 hitting Ive seen, then our first innings Wags showed something similar. Southee somewhat more technical, just lacks application. So Im a bit torn between Kugs and Wags, given Wags despite being a capable left arm in swinger, is largely on dimensional in his tactics, which I do not see succeeding vs the aussies now hes lost some pace.

I'll be accused of being a glass half empty (perhaps rightly so) but I think it's probably unlikely we'll see KJ back bowling for NZ in test cricket, or any form of top level cricket. He's got metal in the lower back similar to that which Bond got, and he ended up having to retire after trying to come back. It's incredibly unfortunate, but Jamieson is a mountain of a man and trying to put that frame through the rigors of bowling at 140kph. Hope I'm proved wrong, but he's got to think of his health after cricket.

I don't think either Kuggeleijn or Wagner will get picked by Stead in the playing XI. I'd prefer to see Boult, or even Sears in the side. Granted that O'Rourke will provide some surprise factor for the Aussies, but I'm not sure our bowling attack is going to be giving them any sleepless nights. Again, hope I'm proven wrong, but it's hard to see how they get 20 wickets unless conditions are heavily in our favour.

Likewise, Henry and Mitchell potentially going in under injury clouds. Explains why we haven't see Mitchell at the bowling crease very much recently if he's got a dodgy foot. Even more concerned about Henry, he's the spearhead of the pace attack now. Southee and Wagner are both military medium now, if Henry pulls up lame on the first day it's going to be a hard slog. Perhaps O'Rourke will go through them like a dose of the salts, but it's asking a lot of the kid.

I watched Stead defending Conway at the press conference, rolling out all the trite cliches about having faith and he's all class. All that's doing is piling more pressure on him when he doesn't appear to be in a good mindset. His average is heading south with every meagre innings, and I think it's doing him more harm than good now. They should have just taken the harder decision and dropped him, I think it would be a huge weight off Conway's mind instead of feeling like the grim reaper is coming for him every time he goes out to bat.

He's been such a force in every form of cricket since he arrived in NZ, this has to be uncharted territory for him. He could have gone back to domestic cricket and found his form again at that level with the pressure off. Anyway, perhaps he'll turn it around in the next couple of weeks, and I'll be happy to wear the egg on my face, but it'll be one of most amazing 180's I will have seen in all my time watching cricket if it happens.

Just a random thought, if we get put to the sword in the 1st test, does Henry Nicholls suddenly come back into the frame for the second? I think this squad is supposed to do both tests but, if it's bad, do they find a convenient injury to bring Nicholls back.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3197264 18-Feb-2024 21:53

thermonuclear:

Just a random thought, if we get put to the sword in the 1st test, does Henry Nicholls suddenly come back into the frame for the second? I think this squad is supposed to do both tests but, if it's bad, do they find a convenient injury to bring Nicholls back.

I do not see any reason why not. He has a bit of confidence about him right now. and yes IMO this is what "should" have been given to Conway. I feel there are players who can handle such big work loads, ie Kane, Smith etc, but I also believe some just need some respite from the best bowlers in the world destroying the confidence, so much so, when they face some of the weakest teams in the world, their muscle memory, or perhaps just technique, needs recalibration.

But right now, my biggest concern is Rachin. Sure big scores against essentially sub par FC bowlers with averages close to 40, just isnt enough. Its consistency of being the support to #3, then #5 and so on, nearly every innings, this is when Rachin will become a success, but right now I can see the aussies demolishing him, if hes scored only 2 innings above 10 and only the one above 50 vs such a sub par bowling squad. The aussie bowlers are anything but sub par.

I too hope I am proven very very wrong.

But we do have two batsmen in the top 5 in the world, averaging circa 55, its up to them to keep the kids head switched on. Latham needs to lead the resilience and help Conway as much as possible. Its that batting in partnerships theory Im looking for.

thermonuclear

605 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3197405 19-Feb-2024 09:18

TeaLeaf:

But right now, my biggest concern is Rachin. Sure big scores against essentially sub par FC bowlers with averages close to 40, just isnt enough. Its consistency of being the support to #3, then #5 and so on, nearly every innings, this is when Rachin will become a success, but right now I can see the aussies demolishing him, if hes scored only 2 innings above 10 and only the one above 50 vs such a sub par bowling squad. The aussie bowlers are anything but sub par.

Yeah, Ravindra is an interesting one. I've been thinking a lot about his match-up with Cameron Green at #4. When the Aussies announced they were pushing Smith to opener and slotting Green in at four, I wondered what they had been smoking. I'd previously thought Green was lucky to be in the side, and he was a poor man's KJ. And, yet another example of Australia thinking every player they have is a superstar and can do anything. Looking at his FC record he averages 45 with the bat in comparison to Ravindra's 40 and change.

I'm wondering if both teams are misguided in selecting these guys at four. Ravindra is definitely a see-ball-hit-ball kind of player at the moment, which I don't necessarily think should be discouraged if he can tighten up his appraisal of the see-ball side of the equation. He was definitely trying to tighten up in that second innings of the last test and support Kane. It just comes down to gaining the experience and I think he needs to be persevered with.

My ideal test team would have Ravindra, Mitchell and Phillips at 4,5,6. You could make the argument for swapping Mitchell and Ravindra around on the basis that Mitchell has been carrying a foot injury for the last twelve months, and perhaps that is why his average isn't as good at four. I would probably prefer Mitchell there if he can average the 75 he does at five for NZ. Although Mitchell is also a see-ball-hit-ball batter, he does give you more confidence he's going to pick the right bowlers and balls to attack. That would allow Ravindra and Phillips to play their free-flowing, expansive games at five and six.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3197438 19-Feb-2024 11:21

thermonuclear:

Looking at his FC record he averages 45 with the bat in comparison to Ravindra's 40 and change.

Although Mitchell is also a see-ball-hit-ball batter, he does give you more confidence he's going to pick the right bowlers and balls to attack. That would allow Ravindra and Phillips to play their free-flowing, expansive games at five and six.

Not to mention the differential in FC competition quality, however NZ is lifting, I firmly believe trying to get some speed into our surfaces was a good thing, not just for bowling, but for testing batsman. along with now, Bay Oval supposedly being produced more SEa type surface, which can only be a good thing for improving our terrible record to spin, of course its never going to break up quite like some of the tracks there.

There really is no good scenario I see for putting balance in the middle order to give time until Ravindra can prove capable of consistency. If Will Young had a better record I am sure that would be the option.

Yes rather complex with all 3 being similar at their best, but the further down the line the less chance for Ravindra to improve his consistency, as seen with GP at 7 essentially having to play white ball mentality in a successful team first innings and in that situation near zero play in the second. If Rachin is as good as they hoped, he will eventually produce at this level. Keeping in mind Mitchell was a #3 for Canterbury with an avg circa 38. So not too dissimilar.

It's just been bad timing vs aus the last couple of series, not as an exscuse, it is what it is.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3197487 19-Feb-2024 14:00

Steddy sounds pretty confident in Kugs. For me its the strengthening of the batting lineup that makes him a starter for me. Having FC average of 30 at #8, whilst a step up to Test cricket (especially aus bowling) makes me feel a little better about the lack of runs outside of Kane and Daryl. Its a confident option, but it is one of a few ways they could go.

Blackcaps v Australia: No concerns over Scott Kuggeleijn's match fitness despite T20 diet before test call-up | Newshub

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thermonuclear

605 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3197500 19-Feb-2024 14:53

So, lack of red ball cricket only applies as a "reason" when Trent Boult's name is mentioned. However, guys like O'Rourke and Kuggeleign are absolutely fine to come into the test team on a recent diet of white ball stuff.

Yeah ..........

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3197623 19-Feb-2024 18:30

thermonuclear:

So, lack of red ball cricket only applies as a "reason" when Trent Boult's name is mentioned. However, guys like O'Rourke and Kuggeleign are absolutely fine to come into the test team on a recent diet of white ball stuff.

Yeah ..........

It is peculiar as he did say if he is it depended on Trent's availability, but we have known Trent was available at times. admittedly know idea his schedule this year.

Plan C:

Latham
Conway
Williamson
Rachin
Young (counter balance to styles, or possibly Nicholls)
Mitchell
Blundell
Kugs
Henry
Southee
O'rourke

Now I don't like it because GP saved at least 20 runs in the field, took 2 vital wickets and potentially hundreds with those 2 critical catches that only he could catch up with behind the body mid air reaction times off the charts.

But it may solidify our middle order, but then so could GP given the chance, so given that its not my preferred option. Kugs into the team is however. Steddy thinks Conway is going to find form after two years and change.... so while he and Blundell find some, we need as much batting in the team as possible.

Dochart

804 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3197655 19-Feb-2024 20:16

That side you selected is really good. The batting is going to be solid if this is the XI we will select. I expect the openers to go out cheaply so having Young, Mitchell, Blundell and Kugs in the middle-lower order will help a lot. Would definitely like this XI for the 1st Test vs Aus at the Basin. More likely to suit pace than spin so unfortunately GP has to slot out.

thermonuclear

605 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3197656 19-Feb-2024 20:18

TeaLeaf:

Plan C:

Latham
Conway
Williamson
Rachin
Young (counter balance to styles, or possibly Nicholls)
Mitchell
Blundell
Kugs
Henry
Southee
O'rourke

Now I don't like it because GP saved at least 20 runs in the field, took 2 vital wickets and potentially hundreds with those 2 critical catches that only he could catch up with behind the body mid air reaction times off the charts.

But it may solidify our middle order, but then so could GP given the chance, so given that its not my preferred option. Kugs into the team is however. Steddy thinks Conway is going to find form after two years and change.... so while he and Blundell find some, we need as much batting in the team as possible.

Yeah, that's the team I think Stead will pick (assuming no further injuries) with the exception of Santner in for Kuggeleijn. He'll say that Santner brings the required experience and "strengthens the batting".

That means Wagner and Phillips both miss out. I'll remind that the last time NZ played Australia in a test match, at the SCG in 2020, Phillips came into the side to replace an injured Williamson, and scored a 50 on debut.

Where it gets interesting is if either Mitchell or perhaps Conway become unavailable. If either can't play then Phillips gets a reprieve I think. If they do both play then Young probably gets favoured over Phillips, particularly as I think Santner will get selected as the spin option. Unless the Basin is a raging green-top, I think Santner will play.

Anyway, plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet. If Conway has a forgettable T20 series, given the assumption he will be playing on batting-friendly dead strips, he will have to pick up a mysterious injury after the third match?

Dochart

804 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3197662 19-Feb-2024 20:25

If they select Conway then Plan C what Tealeaf suggested should be the go to XI for the Basin Test vs Aus. I still reckon selecting Kugs over Santner is a better option due to the Basin being more pace friendly and Kugs had a good NZA Tour to Aus where they won 2-0 in Aus backyard. When does a NZ side ever win a test series in Aus. Last time the Blackcaps ever won a test series in Aus was 1985 and I think the Blackcaps last won a test series at home against Aus in 1993 I think.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3197680 19-Feb-2024 21:49

Yep, I just feel we cannot rely on Conway, Blundell and Rachin will take a lot of potential losing scores before we know if he is our next #4 or not, right now that has to be his sole focus.

So given the team I laid out, there is still a lot of counter weight argument. Lets see the reality of performances.

But, GP adds a lot in his fielding, that and his bowling was the difference between Sa posting scoreboard pressure to crumble our crumbling middle order or not. He also is more consistent with his scores at much the same avg, in a position he has very little people left to partner with at a 50% higher SR. Not to mention more wickets from half as many overs at an avg of 19 which were taken with bowling and field placement nouse vs Rachin with the single wicket from his bowling not pure batting error/luck and an avg of mid 30s. also GP is a more matured proposition with a lot more international domestic FC and t20 experience, well Rachin has none being the reality.

Im not suggesting Rachin shouldn't play but right now the totality of GP is more than any other player outside Kane and Mitchell, that is not an easy choice just to discard in favour of another inconsistent batsman in Young (who I clearly rate, but thats the facts as of now).

If Im going into the Test match with a spinner, its not Rachin, no variability, simply there to bowl out the same delivery at the same speed to burn overs, but he will get crushed by the likes of Warner. Rachin is a batsman who like Mitchell is very much a part time bowler, and that is what he was selected as, middle order batsman. They believe he can fill the void of Ross Taylor. and Im cool with that, but he needs to find his way, Kane can help him with the maturity aspect which he is severely lacking, but Kane cant bat for him. Only time is going to tell if its a flop or not. 240 suggests he can apply himself, but one innings in ten needs to turn around, and in context it was vs bowlers with FC avgs of ~40 opening, not exactly Cummins (avg 22) Hazlewood (avg 25) and Starc (avg 27). He has also shown he struggles with genuine spin, Piedt was clearly the best in the last match and made our lefties look ordinary with a FC avg of ~40. Lyon is a step up to that with a Test avg of 30.

You can see the headache for Stead.

thermonuclear

605 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3197909 20-Feb-2024 14:20

TeaLeaf:

Yep, I just feel we cannot rely on Conway, Blundell and Rachin will take a lot of potential losing scores before we know if he is our next #4 or not, right now that has to be his sole focus.

So given the team I laid out, there is still a lot of counter weight argument. Lets see the reality of performances.

Im not suggesting Rachin shouldn't play but right now the totality of GP is more than any other player outside Kane and Mitchell, that is not an easy choice just to discard in favour of another inconsistent batsman in Young (who I clearly rate, but thats the facts as of now).

You can see the headache for Stead.

I think we can "rely" on Blundell more than Conway just at the minute, but that's based purely on gut feeling more than anything. Both have been in a form slump, with Conway's being more pronounced.

Entirely agree with GP being in the test side, he has many strings to his bow, I just think he will be the unlucky one to miss out if they insist on continuing to play Conway. Young has the important form on the board, he was looking good in the first dig at Hamilton before he got out, then he was the other half of the partnership that got the victory completed. He's been in good touch on the domestic scene this summer also, he has to play if NZ are at all worried about putting good scores up (which you have to question by the continued faith they're placing in Conway).

Plus, if you accept that O'Rourke has to play because he's the form player, then the same must apply to Young. I'd like to see both Young and GP play, but there's no room for both of them if they keep picking Conway. The other wild card is Mitchell's injury being worse than stated, and he sits out the 1st Test. If he's out then there's room for both of them in the XI. Unless Mitchell's absence triggers the return of Nicholls to the test squad.

The pajama stuff starting tomorrow is going to be very interesting from a selection point of view. What if Clarkson plays a blinder in the series, do they find a way to get him into the test squad. NZ have a recent history of holding onto players from one series to the next when someone stands up and says "pick me". I don't think NZ are any chance of beating Australia by thinking and playing conservatively. They need performers in the side, not passengers.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#3198014 20-Feb-2024 18:48

thermonuclear:

I think we can "rely" on Blundell more than Conway just at the minute

all very good points thermo, just before I give my thoughts, has anyone else read the SMH article "The ‘perfect’ fast bowler Australia won’t have to face in NZ", its on MSN news if you dont have access to the Syd Herald. His achievements are truly staggering, not just at home, in fact his 80 wickets at ~19 is very close to his Home avg of 17.37 with the ball and about 19 wit the bat, with a strike rate of a wicket just a smidgen over every 6 overs. Its a fact NZ wouldn't have dominated Eng (4 series in a row) and outrageous performances vs Ind to get to the WTC without him.

To put this into context Sir Richard Hadlee in his first 19 tests "only" avgd 32.45 with the Ball and only 22.86 with the bat. It would be impossible to predict what KJ would have gone on to achieve without serious injury, but he is clearly our best bowler since Hadlee. Very gracious and encouraging words from the aussie Coach. also really encouraging from KJ too, especially about rehab and being fully aware how much easier it is for very tall bowlers at 140kph+ to bust their backs often and its part of it. The reality is without the height, pace and prodigious swing he wouldnt be the finger snapping menace to the world's best he has been, its just such a shame we won't see him dominate Smith and co.

That over with, yes I suppose Blundell is slightly less melt down as he had some success over 12 months ago vs since about the WTC final for Conway. I'd be "resting" him and putting Rachin in to open, Young or Nicholls (based off domestic form) to 4. Some guys can bat there way out of a shortage of runs at Test level and others I firmly believe need to drop back a notch to get their confidence back. Hopefully having a successful slog in the t20s will fast track that, nothing like a 125 score at SR220 to give you a bit of confidence hehe.

Yes it is a possibility Steddy will do Young which is why I put that team without GP, but I think our coach is a bad selector as well, so whilst I think it will quite possibly occur, it really would be one dimensional thinking, especially at the Basin on day 5.

I cant see Clarkson making the Test team, likely his FC record would convince Steddy to not even concieve of it. But he does excellent List a batting all rounder stats and reasonable bowling (for batting all rounder). Doug Bracewell had a simply incredible T20 season.

I think GP and Young would by the most likely to play in the Mitchell scenario.

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