We're off to Bali tomorrow... wish us luck!

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Disrespective

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#223412 28-Sep-2017 13:29

We've been waiting for this holiday for the last 9 months, and its the first holiday we've had of any kind in nearly 5 years, and this mountain thing called Agung starts getting cranky, rumbling a little bit, and threatening to blow its top.

We've got jandals, boardies, towels and dust masks packed and ready to go. Interestingly our Air Bnb host has said that if it weren't for the media they wouldn't know anything was happening on the south/western coasts. It just has to hold off blowing for two more days. Being stranded on Bali for an extra week or two wouldn't be the worst thing in the world...

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#1874094 28-Sep-2017 13:29

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old3eyes

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#1874105 28-Sep-2017 13:50

Hope you got good travel insurance. Went there back in 1991 but no wish to go back again. Hope you have a great trip and let us all know if and when you get back..

Regards,

Old3eyes

timmmay

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#1874113 28-Sep-2017 13:57

Good luck! Bali's a nice place, been there a couple of times. Friend of mine just left and had no problems.

Fred99

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#1874118 28-Sep-2017 14:03

Good luck!

Actually, despite the fact that Agung looks almost certain to erupt very soon, and that if and when it does erupt, there's a very small possibility that it could erupt on a scale equivalent (VEI 7) to the 1815 eruption of Tambora (hence a lot of interest and some unfounded rumours), it's far more likely the eruption will be (truly spectacular but) much smaller.

The Indonesian authorities seem to be very well regarded in how they handle volcanic threat, evacuation etc.

There's not much "real time" monitoring information publicly available (such as you can find from Geonet on our local volcanoes), and AFAIK no webcams pointed toward the mountain.

This chart shows daily seismic activity totals. The steady increase in shallow (dangkal) volcanic tremor shows that magma is rising. It could of course just slow down and stop - but probably not.

vexxxboy

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#1874171 28-Sep-2017 14:58

having gone through an eruption , i can tell you it's not fun, that ash gets everywhere.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Oblivian

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#1874176 28-Sep-2017 15:10

Fred99:

Good luck!

Actually, despite the fact that Agung looks almost certain to erupt very soon, and that if and when it does erupt, there's a very small possibility that it could erupt on a scale equivalent (VEI 7) to the 1815 eruption of Tambora (hence a lot of interest and some unfounded rumours), it's far more likely the eruption will be (truly spectacular but) much smaller.

The Indonesian authorities seem to be very well regarded in how they handle volcanic threat, evacuation etc.

There's not much "real time" monitoring information publicly available (such as you can find from Geonet on our local volcanoes), and AFAIK no webcams pointed toward the mountain.

This chart shows daily seismic activity totals. The steady increase in shallow (dangkal) volcanic tremor shows that magma is rising. It could of course just slow down and stop - but probably not.

Peaked my interests.

https://webcams.volcanodiscovery.com/Agung

http://volcano.si.edu/reports_weekly.cfm#vn_264020

Check those EQ figures.. https://www.bnpb.go.id/

Fred99

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#1874208 28-Sep-2017 15:37

I can't get that last link above to load.

Local news (in Indonesian)

http://bali.tribunnews.com/

(Google translate does a reasonable enough job of that)

From that if it's accurate - then since the last update to the image I posted above, there's been an increase in seismicity total, relatively more shallow volcanic quakes, and they've detected inflation (but the article doesn't say how much. The authorities now seem to be saying quite firmly that it will erupt, but of course they don't know when.

They also post a photo in that newspaper which appears to be showing visible steam and it's coming from the flank of the mountain - not the main vent - something I don't think is very comforting if hoping for a minor event.

Approx 100,000 evacuees - they are taking it very seriously.

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DarthKermit

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#1874230 28-Sep-2017 16:29

Have a great trip.

Oblivian

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#1874265 28-Sep-2017 18:21

Last link is the natural disaster recovery board

And yep, its constantly updated with evacuations numbers and the quakes. By that stage it was 300+ shallow 400+ deep.

mattwnz

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#1874282 28-Sep-2017 18:57

Have a good holiday. I would recommend taking dust masks with you just in case, as I imagine they could be scarce over there. Sounds like bad timing, last week it was a fuel crisis causing people travel delays, it is funny how these things happen.

mentalinc

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#1874309 28-Sep-2017 19:47

Will travel insurannce even pay out?

is there a travel advisory currently in place?

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Fred99

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#1907953 26-Nov-2017 13:05

Agung is erupting now, quite a plume of dark ash.

There's a live webcam here:

Here's a screen grab from when I posted this:

Qantas, Virgin, Jetstar Aus, KLM have cancelled (some?) flights to Bali. Aviation code is raised to red.

As seen in the links I posted above which are live, seismic activity is actually quite low - compared with the buildup a month or so ago.
The last large eruption of Agung in 1963 was similar to start with, it started slowly and built up over a period of months, then a massive (VEI 5) eruption a month or two later.

If anybody is heading there, then check travel insurance as well as advisories. I understand that some insurers have advised that new policies don't cover for travel disruption for Bali for this volcanic event - as it's not "unforeseen".

floydbloke

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#1908469 27-Nov-2017 14:07

Doesn't look great for the OP.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99265195/balis-erupting-volcano-sparks-air-delays

Stuff:

Indonesian authorities raised the alert for a rumbling volcano to the highest level on Monday and closed the international airport on the tourist island of Bali, stranding thousands of travellers.

Mount Agung has been hurling ash thousands of meters into the atmosphere since Saturday, which had already forced the small international airport on the neighbouring island of Lombok to close as the plumes drifted east.

The National Disaster Mitigation Agency said Bali's international airport, where most flights had been continuing, was closed for 24 hours. It said authorities would consider reopening it Tuesday after evaluating the situation.

Did Eric Clapton really think she looked wonderful...or was it after the 15th outfit she tried on and he just wanted to get to the party and get a drink?

trig42

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#1908475 27-Nov-2017 14:19

floydbloke:

Doesn't look great for the OP.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99265195/balis-erupting-volcano-sparks-air-delays

Stuff:

Indonesian authorities raised the alert for a rumbling volcano to the highest level on Monday and closed the international airport on the tourist island of Bali, stranding thousands of travellers.

Mount Agung has been hurling ash thousands of meters into the atmosphere since Saturday, which had already forced the small international airport on the neighbouring island of Lombok to close as the plumes drifted east.

The National Disaster Mitigation Agency said Bali's international airport, where most flights had been continuing, was closed for 24 hours. It said authorities would consider reopening it Tuesday after evaluating the situation.

At least it wouldn't if they were going today. I think the OP has probably been and gone by now though :)

wellygary

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#1908513 27-Nov-2017 15:14

floydbloke:

Doesn't look great for the OP.

With the Original post date being September I think the OP will be (have been) fine :)

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