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Topic # 223412 28-Sep-2017 13:29
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We've been waiting for this holiday for the last 9 months, and its the first holiday we've had of any kind in nearly 5 years, and this mountain thing called Agung starts getting cranky, rumbling a little bit, and threatening to blow its top.

 

We've got jandals, boardies, towels and dust masks packed and ready to go. Interestingly our Air Bnb host has said that if it weren't for the media they wouldn't know anything was happening on the south/western coasts. It just has to hold off blowing for two more days. Being stranded on Bali for an extra week or two wouldn't be the worst thing in the world...


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  Reply # 1874094 28-Sep-2017 13:29
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Allow me to introduce you folks to our new travel community: TravelTalk NZ.

 

We hope to see you there!

 





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  Reply # 1874105 28-Sep-2017 13:50
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Hope you got good travel insurance.  Went there back in 1991  but no wish to go back again.   Hope you have a great trip and  let us all know if and when you get back..





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  Reply # 1874113 28-Sep-2017 13:57
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Good luck! Bali's a nice place, been there a couple of times. Friend of mine just left and had no problems.





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  Reply # 1874118 28-Sep-2017 14:03
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Good luck!

 

Actually, despite the fact that Agung looks almost certain to erupt very soon, and that if and when it does erupt, there's a very small possibility that it could erupt on a scale equivalent (VEI 7) to the 1815 eruption of Tambora (hence a lot of interest and some unfounded rumours), it's far more likely the eruption will be (truly spectacular but) much smaller.  

 

The Indonesian authorities seem to be very well regarded in how they handle volcanic threat, evacuation etc.

 

There's not much "real time" monitoring information publicly available (such as you can find from Geonet on our local volcanoes), and AFAIK no webcams pointed toward the mountain.

 

This chart shows daily seismic activity totals.  The steady increase in shallow (dangkal) volcanic tremor shows that magma is rising. It could of course just slow down and stop - but probably not.

 


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  Reply # 1874171 28-Sep-2017 14:58
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having gone through an eruption , i can tell you it's not fun, that ash gets everywhere.


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  Reply # 1874176 28-Sep-2017 15:10
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Fred99:

 

Good luck!

 

Actually, despite the fact that Agung looks almost certain to erupt very soon, and that if and when it does erupt, there's a very small possibility that it could erupt on a scale equivalent (VEI 7) to the 1815 eruption of Tambora (hence a lot of interest and some unfounded rumours), it's far more likely the eruption will be (truly spectacular but) much smaller.  

 

The Indonesian authorities seem to be very well regarded in how they handle volcanic threat, evacuation etc.

 

There's not much "real time" monitoring information publicly available (such as you can find from Geonet on our local volcanoes), and AFAIK no webcams pointed toward the mountain.

 

This chart shows daily seismic activity totals.  The steady increase in shallow (dangkal) volcanic tremor shows that magma is rising. It could of course just slow down and stop - but probably not.

 

 

 

Peaked my interests.

 

https://webcams.volcanodiscovery.com/Agung 

 

http://volcano.si.edu/reports_weekly.cfm#vn_264020 

 

Check those EQ figures.. https://www.bnpb.go.id/ 


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  Reply # 1874208 28-Sep-2017 15:37
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I can't get that last link above to load.

 

Local news (in Indonesian)

 

http://bali.tribunnews.com/

 

(Google translate does a reasonable enough job of that)

 

From that if it's accurate - then since the last update to the image I posted above, there's been an increase in seismicity total, relatively more shallow volcanic quakes, and they've detected inflation (but the article doesn't say how much.  The authorities now seem to be saying quite firmly that it will erupt, but of course they don't know when.

 

They also post a photo in that newspaper which appears to be showing visible steam and it's coming from the flank of the mountain - not the main vent - something I don't think is very comforting if hoping for a minor event.

 

Approx 100,000 evacuees - they are taking it very seriously.


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  Reply # 1874230 28-Sep-2017 16:29
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Have a great trip.


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  Reply # 1874265 28-Sep-2017 18:21
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Last link is the natural disaster recovery board

And yep, its constantly updated with evacuations numbers and the quakes. By that stage it was 300+ shallow 400+ deep.

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  Reply # 1874282 28-Sep-2017 18:57
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Have a good holiday. I would recommend taking dust masks with you just in case, as I imagine they could be scarce over there. Sounds like bad timing, last week it was a fuel crisis causing people travel delays, it is funny how these things happen.


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  Reply # 1874309 28-Sep-2017 19:47
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Will travel insurannce even pay out?

 

is there a travel advisory currently in place?





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