Will overseas travel (to Europe as an example) be allowed by July 2022?

Forums › Travel (planes, train, cruise) › Will overseas travel (to Europe as an example) be allowed by July 2022?

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#2777922 14-Sep-2021 00:14

lissie:
Lias:

I can't see international travel going back to how it was pre pandemic for a very very long, if ever. We've already seen how different Delta is with it's increased transmissibility and mortality. If a highly transmissible variant with a mortality rates like SARS or MERS evolves (both other coronavirus outbreaks) thinks will change dramatically again. Quite apart from the actual medical and pandemic risks, I think the impact of the pandemic on airlines, cruise lines, hotels and other travel/tourism related businesses is going to have ripples for a very long time.

My 2 cents.

Except it is quite largely back to normal in large parts of the world e.g. Europe and the US - cruise ship have been sailing for months. I few tests and proof of vaccines is all thats required.

The world went back to normal after the 1918 flu epidemic - which killed an awful lot more people - and didn't have a vaccine

I'm not sure how much you've travelled recently but it's far from normal.

Travel is possible but planning much more than 3 weeks in advance isn't. Things are still changing rapidly.

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#2778136 14-Sep-2021 10:50

I'm not sure how much you've travelled recently but it's far from normal.

Travel is possible but planning much more than 3 weeks in advance isn't. Things are still changing rapidly.

Not overseas since March 2020 - and yes I'm counting the days.

Well actually not booking far in advance was always my normal - so it just means I'm no longer an outlier. What's changed is that Ive been able to rearrange flights /hotels/cruises without financial penalty - that is a big game changer.

It comes down to having a plan a,b,c and criteria as to when to implement each one

Once Australia reopens to international travel - which my some reports maybe as early as November - then basically we can go anywhere via Oz

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#2778462 14-Sep-2021 20:49

My experience so far is be prepared to pay for tests on each country hop and just keep an eye out for changes in requirements.

You'd hope things would be getting simpler but, for example, Singapore has changed some of it's requirements since I started my trip - 48 hour pre-departure test instead of 72.

Travel for pleasure may be more hassle than it is worth at the moment.

PS. On the other hand, didn't have to fill out any departure or arrival cards :-p

heavenlywild

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#2780565 19-Sep-2021 11:11

I think once the govt allows for home quarantining then there will be a massive demand for international travel. Should know more by Jan or Feb.

I doubt the govt will hold up the process considering there will be pressure from business and the general public.

I guess I have a more optimistic view point.

danepak

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#2780568 19-Sep-2021 11:17

Will be interesting to see what happens in Denmark.
First country to lift all restrictions, as the vast majority of people have had both jabs.

heavenlywild

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#2780572 19-Sep-2021 11:23

It's not about cases per day but deaths per day.

If we had 1000 cases a day with no deaths, then it doesn't really make sense to report daily case numbers. Much like any other disease with a vaccine, we don't report daily cases because we are protected.

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#2780582 19-Sep-2021 12:09

heavenlywild: It's not about cases per day but deaths per day.

If we had 1000 cases a day with no deaths, then it doesn't really make sense to report daily case numbers. Much like any other disease with a vaccine, we don't report daily cases because we are protected.

From the start the main issue with covid-19 has been it's ability to overload the hospital system. Case numbers are a leading metric for hospital load and ultimately death's, so I feel it is quite logical we are reporting them.

Without much vaccination (i.e. the start of our delta outbreak) cira 5% of our cases were turning up at hospital. Hopefully vaccination should drag this down a lot.

To answer the thread title, for typical recreational travel I feel that we need to have MIQ free for returnees into NZ (either isolation free, or self isolation). There simply isn't the room to scale MIQ to cover widespread recreational travel.

I believe widespread MIQ free arrivals are incomparable with having zero covid-19 cases in the community. So we will only have that when we abandon that goal.

If the call is made on Monday to abandon that goal (by moving Auckland to level 3), the international travel can resume in a matter of months.

If we keep going with the current lockdown, untill we have eliminated covid-19, then I think we would keep with MIQ etc untill we have our next outbreak. If we are in level 1, might as well watch and learn from the rest of the world (and wait for kids vaccines) rather dealing with covid-19 in the community. - In this case the question is when the next outbreak is going to be. I believe we cannot open up in winter, so it it hasn't havened by say mid to late Jan, then we will need to wait untill say October 2022.

quickymart

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#2780587 19-Sep-2021 12:22

Why can't we open up in winter (assuming everything goes to plan)? I believe a number of Australians come here on ski holidays.

afe66

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#2780610 19-Sep-2021 13:45

Most nz hospitals struggle with bed shortages in winter.

Frail elderly medical patients and those with underlying chest conditions swamp hospitals.

It is not usual for elective surgery to be cancelled in winter for this reason.

Winter is the busiest time of year in hospitals.

This week my hospital has alerts with occupancy at 98 to 100% of capacity and theres no covid.

heavenlywild

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#2780613 19-Sep-2021 13:48

If the govt can hand out billions with short notice, why can't they build fit for purpose MiQ facilities and add more ICU beds? They wouldn't cost even a billion.

Sigh. Anyway, get jabbed, and get us reconnected to the world.

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#2780644 19-Sep-2021 14:23

heavenlywild: If the govt can hand out billions with short notice, why can't they build etc etc They wouldn't cost even a billion.

my wife was saying the same thing

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#2780645 19-Sep-2021 14:29

quickymart:

Why can't we open up in winter (assuming everything goes to plan)? I believe a number of Australians come here on ski holidays.

As per afe66's comment, hospital load. The main issue with Covid-19 is it's ability to overload our hospitals.

Just look at what happened with our hospitals this winter. RSV came via the Aussie bubble after having year without it. This alone had our medical system approaching it's limits.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/125688496/rsv-outbreak-hospitals-and-gps-flat-tack-as-virus-hits-children-across-nz

When we open up to isolation free arrivals, We will get Covid-19, RSV, Influenza and various other pathogens that NZ (and aussie) eliminated via covid-19 containment measures.

Influenza is the big one (after covid-19). Typically worth 500 deaths a year, and a bad season brings out hospital systems to it's limits. Typically a bad influenza season follows a mild one. We have just had two winters with zero influenza....

And of course stuff like the common cold generates hospital load, not only people using the ED like a free GP, but also the young, frail & compromised that need hospital care from this kind of stuff.

Pritty much we need to ensure we open up in Spring - early summer.

Nothing to do with travel patterns. Heaps of New Zealanders like to take overseas holidays in the middle of our winter too.

Scott3

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#2780658 19-Sep-2021 15:00

Batman:

heavenlywild: If the govt can hand out billions with short notice, why can't they build etc etc They wouldn't cost even a billion.

my wife was saying the same thing

A lot of the issue is resourcing.

NZ is in the middle of a housing shortage (many calling it a crisis). Pulling heaps of staff (and resources like timber) from building homes for people to instead build a 6k room dedicated MIQ facility would hurt those in need or normal housing.

Next issue is the lead time. To design & build something like a 6k room isolation facility would be a 6 - 18 month project. By the time we worked out that MIQ hotels had issues, the end of the pandemic via vaccination did not appear to be that far away. If we hit the button now, there is a good chance we could have given up on zero community cases before the foundations were even poured...

Final issue is that it doesn't eliminate the risk. realistically we would need to build it somewhere within a 35min bus ride of Auckland airport (planes need to go there for freight reasons), and it needs to be within easy transfer distance of large hospitals. This means all the staff will commute from Auckland. and most of those who have completed isolation will be go strait into Auckland (if only to pick up a rental car, or catch a long distance bus / flight).

With ICU beds the issue is staffing. The facility is pritty much useless if we don't have people to operate it. Auckland had to scramble ICU staff from the rest of the country for this small outbreak...

I do think we should have (and still should) do the following:

Build a dedicated Quarantine facility for those who are actually sick. i.e. a jetpark replacement. 400 - 800 room capacity. More rooms suitable for people with kids than a typical hotel. Rural, but still somewhat close to Auckland airport and hospitals. Ideally on some of that vacant land near the airport (adjecent State highway 20B), but otherwise Karaka / Ardmore / Brookby / Dury. This isn't going to be the last pandemic we see in our lifetime, and such a facility would be useful in other civil defense type emergencies.
Aggressively increase the number of negitive pressure room's (or entire wards) in our hospitals. It is clear we need a lot of reserve capacity for infectious disease over the coming decades.
A decent plan to increase hospital capacity overall longer term. It is clear that running such a lean hospital system is problematic in times such as these.

heavenlywild

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#2780701 19-Sep-2021 16:16

Keen to hear some travel experiences from anyone who has been overseas recently other than AU and the Cook Islands.

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#2780848 20-Sep-2021 07:51

One of the biggest issues with travel right now is the use of vaccination passports. I see this being a pretty big issue moving forward as well because as much as many people are going to object, the reality is we are going to exist in a world for some time now where the vaccinated and unvaccinated are going to need to be treated differently.

With no real global standard for proving vaccination there are lots of challenges - for a plane flight or entering a country it's going to be easy, but what happens for example with somebody from NZ who does head to Europe now and can't enter a local bar or restaurant because they can't use a local country app to prove their vaccination status?

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