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Batman

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#284665 9-May-2021 08:22
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https://www.space.com/how-to-track-china-falling-rocket-booster

 

https://www.space.com/china-rocket-falling-from-space-dont-worry

 

The core stage of a Long March 5B rocket, which launched China's Tianhe space station module last week, is making an uncontrolled fall back to Earth and that, naturally, raised concerns with some. However, in an interview with Space.com, Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, the typical risk of an individual being hit is "one in many billions."


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MaxineN
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  #2703791 9-May-2021 08:35
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Try and catch North Island.





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jarledb
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  #2703798 9-May-2021 09:47
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Latest updates here: https://twitter.com/aerospacecorp

Still a non-zero chance it might hit NZ




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Oblivian
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  #2703831 9-May-2021 10:31
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Aerospace is putting their balls on the line with gps locations

But many other scientists are working it and get similar results. Just shifted by time so noone seems to have it pegged. Such is an unknown like this

The first pass has gone by. Next one 1145 ish I think. Likely window is down to between 1 and 3pm local though. So gettin close to aus/Atlantic.

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1391152439252881409?s=20 is a good one for us :)

While this isn't so much, but you can track current location
https://mapshot.app/pkg/longmarch.html



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  #2703899 9-May-2021 11:44
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This s quite good

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZovY_rxAPaI

 

Passing over AKL now

 

 


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  #2703907 9-May-2021 11:53
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Predicting after 3pm NZ time, that's in 3 hours, its just passed, so two more orbits and it will be back here after 3pm


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  #2703908 9-May-2021 11:57
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Youtube channels like those irk me.

 

They're basically flogging other sites data and rebroadcasting (they advertise the re-streamer there) for monetisation from youtube

 

There are lots of 'LIVE' space launches that have been going for weeks that are replays. Just because they know people go looking for them.

 

http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=48275&sid=71#TOP may look familiar to that example.

 

The normal track may look to pass us, but that's best effort if still flying. If it skims atmosphere over the atlantic like the latest model suggests, May be gone time it skips here


 
 
 

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tdgeek
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  #2703912 9-May-2021 12:01
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Yeah, I checked two other feeds, it was elsewhere but these two Im on are the same, and count the same UTC time

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZovY_rxAPaI

 

https://mapshot.app/pkg/longmarch.html

 

 


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  #2703989 9-May-2021 14:26
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This appears to be the current live feed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkseiSxaB4o





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tdgeek
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  #2703990 9-May-2021 14:29
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Re entry in 1 minute

 

Edit now 22 minutes as at 2-33pm


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  #2703991 9-May-2021 14:30
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Clocks been reset to 24 hours.  Don't think they know when it's going to land in downtown Auckland. 





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  #2703994 9-May-2021 14:47
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old3eyes:

 

This appears to be the current live feed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkseiSxaB4o

 

 

You mean a windowed version of the website here? http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=48275 :)

 

About to pass central NZ now. If it's still up. As of 130-2 it was seen over Jordan blinking away. Basically as predicted T0 has passed, most clocks may now be off and require visual confirmation.

 

https://twitter.com/planet4589?lang=en 


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  #2703997 9-May-2021 14:50
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Passing over now, speed isn't bleeding off and faster so far

 

 


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  #2703998 9-May-2021 14:51
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Looks like it missed us again. 





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Oblivian
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  #2703999 9-May-2021 14:52
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tdgeek:

 

Passing over now, speed isn't bleeding off and faster so far

 

 

That stuffs not quite real-real. But often calculated based on data plots. Eliptical orbit (which is why our side of the world had red stripes) where it gets higher/lower and ground speed changes.

 

More or less have to wait for it to not appear where it should be on next dark land pass


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  #2704002 9-May-2021 14:59
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Video out from Oman if verified is it's already toast as of 1440 between middle east and australia. And yep they're waiting for the ground sensors to confirm it's MIA


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