Ukraine War discussion

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#2988963 28-Oct-2022 07:46

sir1963:

But, out pops the surprise that Ukraine used a naughty weapons (supplied and used by Russia against its own people) and so with extreme reluctance Russia has had to use Nukes.

There are 2 alternatives

Putin knows he will also be a casualty if Nukes are used

or

He has realised that the threats of their use backfired, the west did not back down, and sanctions/war losses are making things worse.

He is guided by his love of the USSR, make Russia Great Again, that's his legacy. Using nukes will end that, he won't want that type of legacy. Ideally he wants an end to the war, but not him ending it, he needs somehow for UKR to come to the negotiating table, but that's not going to happen. Its a stalemate. But UKR can keep fighting as they have the will and the support. Ultimately UKR will join NATO.

He has stated that they will not use nukes. Being pushed out of Kherson. They are aiming to reduce UKR energy for Winter, in some ways that show that Russia cannot win a war by fighting, so they are using strangulation instead. Its becoming a stubborn vs stubborn type of conflict

Having said all that, Putin's word has no value, and as you say, he may find an excuse to use nukes, to save face internally, who knows. What we do know is that Russia is screwed, win lose or draw. I read that EU is awash with energy storage, it has all backfired

But again, who knows

Rikkitic

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#2988988 28-Oct-2022 08:53

Remember Hitler? When his drug-addled mind finally comprehended that all was lost, he did not say 'such is life' and do what he could to ease the agony of his people. Instead, he decided to bring the house down around his ears. If he couldn't have it, no-one could!

Why should anyone think that Putin will be any different than any other overblown megalomaniac? When all other options are gone, he will just shrug, say Götterdämmerung, and pull the plug. Maybe there is some kind of twisted satisfaction in being the one to finally push the button.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

tdgeek

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#2988992 28-Oct-2022 08:58

Rikkitic:

Remember Hitler? When his drug-addled mind finally comprehended that all was lost, he did not say 'such is life' and do what he could to ease the agony of his people. Instead, he decided to bring the house down around his ears. If he couldn't have it, no-one could!

Why should anyone think that Putin will be any different than any other overblown megalomaniac? When all other options are gone, he will just shrug, say Götterdämmerung, and pull the plug. Maybe there is some kind of twisted satisfaction in being the one to finally push the button.

Didn't he run away and take his own life? Not the same as Hitler. IMO Putin wants his USSR legacy above all else, he "probably" won't want to be the one that lit the world up with nukes.

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#2989012 28-Oct-2022 09:28

tdgeek:

IMO Putin wants his USSR legacy above all else

Lots of people assume that, but the reality is, we don't know what his real motivations are. Especially not right now, under extreme pressure, losing a war he started, surrounded by people who would probably prefer to off him than lose their megayacht, getting old and possibly sick.

Him throwing a tantrum and ending it all isn't a possibility you can simply dismiss.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

kingdragonfly

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#2989203 28-Oct-2022 12:12

Technofreak:
Very interesting video. Apparently what the Russian soldiers are being given to read before going off to fight in Ukraine.

https://youtu.be/4LM7xO_btHY

From the Military manual issued by the Russian Ministry of Defense, given to the Russian canon fodder

"There is no such country as Ukraine. There is only a territory of former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

All the power is in the hands of citizen of Israel, USA and United Kingdom who organized genocide of indigenous people..."

So Mister Putin, Let me understand: You're purging the Nazis, who are controlled by the citizens of Israel?

Because it kind of sounds insane.

kingdragonfly

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#2989208 28-Oct-2022 12:28

CBS News: American fighter in Ukraine traumatized by his experiences on Ukranian battlefield

Holly Williams speaks with an American fighter who has since left the front lines of Ukraine to deal with his PTSD. In southern Ukraine, the fighter refers to himself by his call sign

He says he repeatedly witnessed Russian forces using white phosphorus munitions against them.

He admits that he's profoundly traumatized and fears one of his former comrades could commit suicide because of what they went through together.

tdgeek

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#2989236 28-Oct-2022 14:04

SaltyNZ:

Lots of people assume that, but the reality is, we don't know what his real motivations are. Especially not right now, under extreme pressure, losing a war he started, surrounded by people who would probably prefer to off him than lose their megayacht, getting old and possibly sick.

Him throwing a tantrum and ending it all isn't a possibility you can simply dismiss.

I dont think I was dismissing it, just noting that his personal desires dont quite match with it.

Re the assumption, he has along history of love for USSR and anger for it breaking up

sir1963

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#2989247 28-Oct-2022 14:46

tdgeek:

SaltyNZ:

Lots of people assume that, but the reality is, we don't know what his real motivations are. Especially not right now, under extreme pressure, losing a war he started, surrounded by people who would probably prefer to off him than lose their megayacht, getting old and possibly sick.

Him throwing a tantrum and ending it all isn't a possibility you can simply dismiss.

I dont think I was dismissing it, just noting that his personal desires dont quite match with it.

Re the assumption, he has along history of love for USSR and anger for it breaking up

That would like the UK throwing a temper tantrum over the break up of the British empire.

If he cared about the USSR, he would not have started the war.

ALL he has done is harden the worlds attitudes towards Russia, he has put Russia into another Afghanistan, a war he will ultimately lose with significant economic cost and human life lost (though his use of prisoners as conscripts says he will willing to throw some lives away).

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#2989257 28-Oct-2022 15:04

sir1963:

That would like the UK throwing a temper tantrum over the break up of the British empire.

If he cared about the USSR, he would not have started the war.

ALL he has done is harden the worlds attitudes towards Russia, he has put Russia into another Afghanistan, a war he will ultimately lose with significant economic cost and human life lost (though his use of prisoners as conscripts says he will willing to throw some lives away).

The UK is/was not run by a dictator

USSR doesnt exist, he wants it to be back the way it was, because he cares about the USSR. He wants it back in the form of Russian Federation with the ex USSR states

Point 3 100% agree. Thought it was a 3 week Crimea

EDIT

Caring about the USSR is about that "empire" he wants "his" empire back, so lives don't matter

ezbee

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#2989261 28-Oct-2022 15:20

Logic of autocrats, they make their own realities.

Who will be the "Putin Whisperer"
Vlad Vexler has some interesting videos of Russia and Putin.

Why Putin Became A Killer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SUjqIvVZHY

Gives a view of the various phases and faces of Putin.
Though as KGB, calculated lying and deception is probably as natural as breathing.
KGB also sought people with faults such as lack of empathy for people or family.
Apparently, a lack of attachment to their mothers was a very good sign.

As you get more power, and it becomes absolute, the need for subterfuge subsides.

Its pretty much now a confluence of 20 years solidifying absolute power with inevitable cognitive decay of aging.
An emperor looking for an immortal place in history.

His first outing was Chechnya, raising Grozny in 1999, so no surprise.
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2022/03/02/putin-grozny-chechen-ukraine-russia-military-past

Maybe always a killer that now drops pretense.
Now look at China and Xi, aging autocratic leader with ever more power, a cabinet of loyalists.

linw

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#2989289 28-Oct-2022 16:50

It's amazing seeing a ruler who hates his own people as much as his 'enemies'.

tdgeek

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#2989345 28-Oct-2022 18:41

linw:

It's amazing seeing a ruler who hates his own people as much as his 'enemies'.

I play Monopoly against you, I want to win, doesnt matter if you is 70 million people. Dictator. Hitler, Idi Amin, Xi Xiping, Kim Jong xxx and all the rest. Democracy isnt perfect but the plebs have the choice. But when its one person playing real life monopoly over peoples iives, thats a whole other ball game. But the world order, whatever that is, is allowing this to go on and on and on.

Difficult

kingdragonfly

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#2989378 28-Oct-2022 21:01

Here's a new Russian rationalization for invading Ukraine: "De-Satan-isation"

Putin and various propagandists are saying Ukraine has hundreds of devil worshipping cults / covens, and he's removing them.

Twitter - Russia Media Watch

"Top Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov endorses Kadyrov's proclamation that Russia is embroiled in a jihad against Ukraine.

He calls it a holy war.

Solovyov sighs, moans and angrily ponders whether Russia actually has the nukes, since everything else is in such short supply."

kingdragonfly

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#2989438 29-Oct-2022 09:09

Bias warning: "Iran International" runs out of London is purported to be partially funded by Saudi Arabia.

Iran International: Iran Calls For Evidence On Drones As Israel Steps Forward

Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian called Wednesday for Ukraine to present any evidence that Russia had used Iranian-made drones in the conflict.
...
Visiting Washington, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said Tuesday he would give the United States officials photographic proof of Russia using Iranian drones in Ukraine. Herzog’s office said this would involve visual evidence that fragments of drones were identical to those developed in Iran.

The US has already said it has evidence of Russia’s use of Iranian drones, sanctioning several Iranian companies in September. CNN October 18 displayed a drone, apparently intact, which it claimed Ukrainian forces had shot down and was a Mohajer-6 drone with the marking ER-860. The European Union and the United Kingdom last week sanctioned three Iranian commanders and a defense company.
...
France and the United Kingdom last week joined the US in presenting a letter to the United Nations Secretariat arguing that Iran’s alleged supply of drones to Russia contravened UN Security Council Resolution 2231
...
Ned Price, the US State Department Spokesman, said Tuesday that material presented at the UN Security Council by a UN expert over the alleged Russian use of Iranian drones “primarily was not US information,” and that the UN had obtained the information on its own. Price said there was “clear, unmistakable evidence of Iran’s support to various malign actors, from the Houthis [Ansar Allah in Yemen] to Russia to others in conflict zones around the world, of UAV [drone, unmanned aerial vehicle] technology.” The spokesman said Washington was “looking at what more we can do using our own authorities and what more collectively we can do with partners and allies around the world to hold Iran accountable…”

Iran’s drone program developed due partly to a lack of an effective air-force given international sanctions
....

gzt

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#2989452 29-Oct-2022 10:00

joined the US in presenting a letter to the United Nations Secretariat arguing that Iran’s alleged supply of drones to Russia contravened UN Security Council Resolution 2231

Personally I can't see a connection between resolution 2231 and the supply of drones. That seems like a long shot from the US.

Resolution 2231 was the Iran/US nuclear agreement. Trump agreed with this in 2017. In 2018 Trump said he had amazing negotiating powers and could easily get "a better deal" and then dropped this agreement entirely.

Biden has not managed to reinstate the agreement because now there are sticking points.

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