Ukraine War discussion

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#3112534 6-Aug-2023 22:56

Rikkitic:

I have become convinced by developments in Ukraine and elsewhere that we are headed into a major international war involving the east and west. I can't say if it will be a full-blown world war, or a nuclear one, but it will be a very substantial conflict that has life-changing effects on us all. What makes me think this is the escalation between Russia and Ukraine, the movement of Wagner forces to the Polish border, the increasing militarism of China and North Korea, the new military pacts like AUKUS, New Zealand's own defence reprioritisation, all the rich foreigners buying up boltholes here and many other big and small things going on around the globe. To anyone with even a passing familiarity with 20th century history, all of this seems awfully familiar. If you have any land available, you might want to start a Victory garden on it.

I am interested in what you mean by the escalation between Russia and Ukraine. By my estimation the only "escalation" has been the provision of better weaponry over a prolonged length of time offered to Ukraine. I would describe it as levelling the playing field so to speak. One could argue, and I would, that the slow appeasement since 2014 (earlier if we include Georgia) has what has led to this war - and that is the lesson that is repeating. Wagner is a red herring, they would be lucky to have 20,000 troops in Belarus and they are based nowhere near the border. They lost all of the air, and heavy equipment so would have to take it from Belarus. Its not happening. If it did, it would get squashed think Syria Feburary 2014.

In regards to the pacific, if anything I suspect the reality of Ukraine Russia will dissuade countries from invading others, at least in the short term. Fonterra price drops due to increased Chinese milk production should be a warning that they are moving to shore up the weaknesses they have in regards to food supply. On the other hand after seeing the Covid protests I am not sure becoming a pariah is likely to favour President Xi. Personally not convinced. I believe he would have if the Kyiv in 4 days had happened. But now he has a hell of a lot to lose, and he knows like "in 4 days" is impossible over 180km distance.

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#3112580 7-Aug-2023 07:54

itxtme:

On the other hand after seeing the Covid protests I am not sure becoming a pariah is likely to favour President Xi. Personally not convinced. I believe he would have if the Kyiv in 4 days had happened. But now he has a hell of a lot to lose, and he knows like "in 4 days" is impossible over 180km distance.

Old dictators aren't necessarily completely logical, though. Starting a war to distract from domestic issues is a play that they've been making for 5000 years. There is no reason to be building up the military as they are if they don't intend to use it. The US isn't going to invade China, so what is it for if not to throw their weight around in the Pacific? Making this the century of China is exactly what the Chinese right-wingers (hardline left wingers? I don't know - the hawks, anyway) believe is destiny.

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#3112594 7-Aug-2023 08:40

gzt: The residents of Moscow appear to be relatively safe. The youtube headlines like 'panic in Russia' are overblown in the extreme. The selected targets are not random.

One can also make one's own population believe that the homeland is under attack (threatened).

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#3112599 7-Aug-2023 08:46

Rikkitic:

I have become convinced by developments in Ukraine and elsewhere that we are headed into a major international war involving the east and west. I can't say if it will be a full-blown world war, or a nuclear one, but it will be a very substantial conflict that has life-changing effects on us all. What makes me think this is the escalation between Russia and Ukraine, the movement of Wagner forces to the Polish border, the increasing militarism of China and North Korea, the new military pacts like AUKUS, New Zealand's own defence reprioritisation, all the rich foreigners buying up boltholes here and many other big and small things going on around the globe. To anyone with even a passing familiarity with 20th century history, all of this seems awfully familiar. If you have any land available, you might want to start a Victory garden on it.

You must remember what I wrote at the beginning of the conflict and why we Germans were so hesitant? That's exactly what I meant, that it's just a proxy war to get the world's population used to the "war atmosphere". One day someone will want to "end it" the hard way because everyone has become "tired of discussing or negotiating" and then it will really start.

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet. - He who knows nothing must believe everything.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons!
I avoid Big Tech, they try hard to dictate technology and culture across borders.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

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#3112732 7-Aug-2023 11:16

itxtme:

I am interested in what you mean by the escalation between Russia and Ukraine.

What I mean is Russia hinting that they may go nuclear and Ukraine hitting buildings in Moscow and seriously damaging Russian warships with drones. I call this an escalation. Neither side is going to suddenly pull back. This will continue to get worse before it gets better.

According to this report Wagner is indeed a player in rising tensions on the Polish border area. It doesn’t matter if they are a credible fighting force or not. All that matters is that a helicopter strays into Polish territory, bombs a few border guards, and NATO responds.

I truly hope my pessimistic prognosis is wrong. War isn’t good for anyone. But I stand by what I said. Reading the news today is a lot like reading it before World Wars I and II.

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#3112737 7-Aug-2023 11:30

Rikkitic:

All that matters is that a helicopter strays into Polish territory, bombs a few border guards, and NATO responds.

Currently, they don't have any helicopters, planes, tanks or artillery. They "voluntarily" gave all that back to the Russian government. The helicopter crossing the border would be a Belarussian helicopter, which would put Belarus in NATO's crosshairs. Lukashenko might like playing dress-ups in an army uniform but he has fairly tenuous hold on power, requiring Russian troops to put down protests. You can tell he doesn't want to risk his cushy job by the words he uses whenever Putin suggests he get more involved. It's always 'sure, Vlad, definitely will do that but maybe later?'

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#3112739 7-Aug-2023 11:34

Ukraine sunk the Moskva over a year ago, so it's difficult to say that damaging a less significant warship recently is an "escalation". I agree though that the hits on Moscow need to be handled very carefully by Ukraine; it's good to make Muscovites feel just a tiny sample of what Ukrainian civilians are going through, but it wouldn't be good to strengthen pro-war feeling by doing this.

I think even Putin can understand that going nuclear is not going to go well for him, or anyone for that matter. Not that he cares about anyone other than himself. I think also his military leaders are not quite as stupid as him and would not follow an order to use tactical nukes.

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#3112740 7-Aug-2023 11:35

Rikkitic:

itxtme:

I am interested in what you mean by the escalation between Russia and Ukraine.

What I mean is Russia hinting that they may go nuclear and Ukraine hitting buildings in Moscow and seriously damaging Russian warships with drones. I call this an escalation. Neither side is going to suddenly pull back. This will continue to get worse before it gets better.

According to this report Wagner is indeed a player in rising tensions on the Polish border area. It doesn’t matter if they are a credible fighting force or not. All that matters is that a helicopter strays into Polish territory, bombs a few border guards, and NATO responds.

I truly hope my pessimistic prognosis is wrong. War isn’t good for anyone. But I stand by what I said. Reading the news today is a lot like reading it before World Wars I and II.

Russia has been hinting at the nuclear option right from the start. Several "red lines" have been crossed already without the nuclear option being used which indicates they're either bluffing or incapable. One big question regarding the Russian nukes is their serviceability.

You cannot leave them sitting around and go and use them without having maintained them. There's a strong school of though that the Russian nukes have been as poorly maintained/prepared as much of the rest of their military with much of the money destined for their upkeep having been syphoned off into various hip pockets/holiday homes and what have you.

It's pretty likely the Russian nukes are actually unserviceable and are more a danger to the Russians themselves than they are to any enemy. That being the case the Russians will know that and won't wish to attempt to deploy them.

I don't see the Ukrainian attacks on Russian warships as an escalation, they've been doing that from just after the start of the war. The drone attacks on Moscow is perhaps, though I suspect that's more a case of the Ukrainians not having the ability to do that up till now. I think you'll find they're using home grown devices to carry out these attacks as there are limitations on what they're allowed to use donated weapons for. Also I thinks it's quite probable these attacks are being launched from within Russia.

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#3112753 7-Aug-2023 12:10

The future will tell. I don't want to be right about this.

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#3112759 7-Aug-2023 12:20

Technofreak:

There's a strong school of though that the Russian nukes have been as poorly maintained/prepared as much of the rest of their military with much of the money destined for their upkeep having been syphoned off into various hip pockets/holiday homes and what have you.

It's pretty likely the Russian nukes are actually unserviceable and are more a danger to the Russians themselves than they are to any enemy.

Up till a couple of years ago they were being regularly inspected by the US under bilateral arms control treaties, so even if you believe they haven't had a quick wipe with a damp cloth since then, I wouldn't bet on them being unserviceable.

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Technofreak

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#3112994 7-Aug-2023 20:37

SaltyNZ:

Technofreak:

There's a strong school of though that the Russian nukes have been as poorly maintained/prepared as much of the rest of their military with much of the money destined for their upkeep having been syphoned off into various hip pockets/holiday homes and what have you.

It's pretty likely the Russian nukes are actually unserviceable and are more a danger to the Russians themselves than they are to any enemy.

Up till a couple of years ago they were being regularly inspected by the US under bilateral arms control treaties, so even if you believe they haven't had a quick wipe with a damp cloth since then, I wouldn't bet on them being unserviceable.

It was my understanding they were only counting numbers not looking at how or whether maintenance was being carried.

With the stories floating around about stocks of munitions being moved from warehouse to warehouse to be counted twice as stock was missing as it had been misappropriated/sold, anything is possible.

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#3113011 7-Aug-2023 21:25

I'd certainly love to be proven wrong, but it isn't something I'd bet the planet on.

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Technofreak

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#3113023 7-Aug-2023 21:49

SaltyNZ:

I'd certainly love to be proven wrong, but it isn't something I'd bet the planet on.

Me neither.

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#3113025 7-Aug-2023 21:55

Just saw a headline about a plot to assassinate Zelensky. I'm frankly surprised he has made it this far but I have often wondered what would happen if he does get taken out. Would Ukranian morale collapse? I don't think there is anyone who could replace him. He has a unique ability to muster international support and inspire his own people.

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#3113030 7-Aug-2023 22:10

That Progozhin still breathing shows there are powers in Russia that even Putin has to bow to.

The whole Nuclear chain of command in Russia is very well aware of what would come back the other way.
They may also have confidence that the stuff comming back the other way will get to its intended marks too.

The forces that stayed Putin's hand are not suicidal when it comes to themselves, that's for the meat they send to front line.

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