Ukraine War discussion

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#3113032 7-Aug-2023 22:18

Rikkitic:

Just saw a headline about a plot to assassinate Zelensky. I'm frankly surprised he has made it this far but I have often wondered what would happen if he does get taken out. Would Ukranian morale collapse? I don't think there is anyone who could replace him. He has a unique ability to muster international support and inspire his own people.

While it would be a significant blow, I think his assassination would really galvanise the resolve of the Ukrainian people against Russia and Putin. I think it would backfire big time. So much so I think Putin and his cronies would do as much as they could to prevent it.

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neb

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#3113033 7-Aug-2023 22:21

SaltyNZ:
Up till a couple of years ago they were being regularly inspected by the US under bilateral arms control treaties, so even if you believe they haven't had a quick wipe with a damp cloth since then, I wouldn't bet on them being unserviceable.

The inspections were more a show of good faith than anything else, where both sides showed willingness to participate and demonstrate their good intentions. For example if the inspection requirements said that facility X was to be inspected and operations had moved to facility Y down the road then facility X continued to be inspected because that's what was written into the agreements, and changing it could have required renegotiating treaties. There was a certain amount of tongue-in-cheek one-upmanship involved, for example when the US shipped monitoring gear to Russia they would select one of every X units and tear it down to check for supplemental functionality, and then gleefully report things like a manufacturing fault in one of the power supplies they'd disassembled.

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#3113059 8-Aug-2023 07:15

neb: There was a certain amount of tongue-in-cheek one-upmanship involved, for example when the US shipped monitoring gear to Russia they would select one of every X units and tear it down to check for supplemental functionality, and then gleefully report things like a manufacturing fault in one of the power supplies they'd disassembled.

Sure, but when it came to inspecting the actual nukes, they wouldn't set out a bunch of busted-ass junkyard pieces. Nor would they want to even give the impression that they had carefully selected the only working nuke in the pile to put out for show. The whole point is for the other side to know that those weapons will work.

If the Americans had any reason to believe the Russian nukes were all just bags of cement inside a bomb-shaped case they wouldn't be taking so long to get around to giving Ukraine the hard stuff. Take the F-16s Ukraine has been asking for repeatedly - the US has hundreds of old ones sitting in the boneyard that they could be restoring to airworthiness, or at least airworthy enough given the probable short life expectancy once they get into serious combat conditions. Same with the Abrams tanks. Thousands just sitting around. And yet, nobody has volunteered to give them any planes, and the first of 14 tanks are only just about to arrive.

Personally, regardless of the condition of the conventional arsenal, I think the nukes are the one part we should be pretty sure will work as advertised.

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Ge0rge

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#3113065 8-Aug-2023 07:54

In regards to the aircraft or main battle tanks - if I was to drop you off one at home today, when would you be ready to deploy into combat with it? Tomorrow? Next week? Why not? You've got the equipment?

There's so much more that goes into providing a unit a combat capability than just getting them the equipment. Training in how to functionally use it - start, operate, maintain and service and that's just for physical part for the crew, let alone teaching them the tactics that go into fighting with a new capability. You then have to consider the logistics - fuel, ammunition, spare parts - the Abram's eats them faster than a kid at an all you can eat dessert, and now you have to consider how to transport all of those supplies, as well as the tank, to the front lines. The A1 echelon that supports a troop of Abram's is huge.

I could go on for quite some time about this, introducing a new capabilty is a huge task, however suffice to say "just giving them tanks" is about as useful as sending thoughts and prayers.

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#3113070 8-Aug-2023 08:15

Ge0rge: In regards to the aircraft or main battle tanks - if I was to drop you off one at home today, when would you be ready to deploy into combat with it? Tomorrow? Next week? Why not? You've got the equipment?

I could go on for quite some time about this, introducing a new capabilty is a huge task, however suffice to say "just giving them tanks" is about as useful as sending thoughts and prayers.

I'm aware of that. Nobody is suggesting a random Cessna pilot can jump into an F-16 and start merrily shooting down Russians with it. Anyone who has played any sort of semi-realistic combat sim like DCS knows that. But if they had wanted to they could have made those decisions immediately and got the training and equipment refurbishment under way a year ago. They're only just about to start training the first lot of F-16 pilots in basic operations now - and they still don't have any plan to provide aircraft to them.

Maintenance is another issue as you rightly point out, but again, not much stopping that from getting under way months ago. In both cases language is an issue - translating all the manuals and panels into Ukrainian isn't practical - but they have enough pilots with good enough English to start some now, and more that have enough English that with more courses they will be OK. And for mechanics it's a bit easier - you don't have to make many split-second life and death decisions when you're tearing down an engine so they can probably get by with a little less robust English.

I stand by my assertion that the reason Ukraine does not have more advanced heavy weapons now is not that they lack the ability, it is the reluctance to further antagonise Putin. That reluctance is slowly evaporating as it becomes clear that (many of) the red lines are empty words.

On the flip side there is also a growing feeling that the Ukrainians are not grateful enough for what they have received (see comments from the UK) which is somewhat understandable. But you have to balance that against the fact that Ukraine are beating down the Russian war machine for pennies on the dollar and with no risk whatsoever to Western soldiers.

In my opinion, the West should give Ukraine whatever it asks for with a smile.

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Technofreak

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#3113107 8-Aug-2023 09:54

SaltyNZ:

I stand by my assertion that the reason Ukraine does not have more advanced heavy weapons now is not that they lack the ability, it is the reluctance to further antagonise Putin. That reluctance is slowly evaporating as it becomes clear that (many of) the red lines are empty words........

........In my opinion, the West should give Ukraine whatever it asks for with a smile.

I lot of what I've read suggest the slow delivery of weapons is more around not knocking the Russians down too fast but rather grind them down and wear them out and weaken them so that they are unable to mount any aggression for a very long time.

As you said taking on the Russians for pennies in the dollar without spilling blood for the supporting western nations.

I agree, the west should willingly give whatever is needed. It is the best option long term.

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#3113132 8-Aug-2023 10:46

It is a huge number of dead people (on one side only, not counting the defenders) just to appease the dictator's ego.

[Edit (MF): this reply is to a post by @ezbee, removed - the updated post is below)]

ezbee

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#3113138 8-Aug-2023 10:59

Earlier deletion due to clumsy reedit.

Russian propagandist Skabeeva came up with 284,000 obituaries, ( Russian Dead? )
Given that wrong messaging in Russia gets you decade long prison terms and such.
They must have approval for this.
Though they have at past times put in the odd truth to then either say its not important or to rebut later.
People will hear XYZ anyway so lets put it out there then counter or ignore it.

284,000 obituaries,

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/roman-sheremeta-14972a50_for-the-first-time-the-russian-propagandists-activity-7094185523056902144-CsCL

https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/08/07/propagandist-skabeeva-in-a-weak-moment-told-the-truth-on-russian-telly/

Seems there is not much more than this clip.
It does leave door open that later a fuller clip will say they were surveying Ukraine.
So get message out that it looks like Russian losses, and hit with gotcha we are talking about Ukrainian.
That maybe it.
Major news organizations have not touched it yet

neb

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#3113334 8-Aug-2023 13:55

SaltyNZ:
neb: There was a certain amount of tongue-in-cheek one-upmanship involved, for example when the US shipped monitoring gear to Russia they would select one of every X units and tear it down to check for supplemental functionality, and then gleefully report things like a manufacturing fault in one of the power supplies they'd disassembled.

Sure, but when it came to inspecting the actual nukes, they wouldn't set out a bunch of busted-ass junkyard pieces. Nor would they want to even give the impression that they had carefully selected the only working nuke in the pile to put out for show. The whole point is for the other side to know that those weapons will work.

That's not how it works... actually nothing like how it works. What's monitored is the presence of the warheads, typically for arms limitation treaty compliance monitoring, so this legitimate warhead was moved into this bounded warehouse and then disassembled, and what left corresponds to what entered. It's actually very tricky to do because you need to make sure that you're seeing an actual warhead, or its components, but can't leak any design details, so you've got a nondestructive assay system that does a fairly extensive analysis of what's present which then has to be converted into a boolean true/false value with strong evidence presented to the other side that nothing extra is being communicated.

In any case the monitoring regime says nothing about whether anything works or not, it just monitors the physics package, which in theory could be completely inert.

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#3114784 11-Aug-2023 17:49

Russia is just playing with fire. At some point, they will stray into NATO territory and be doomed. Playing on the Danube is risky.

After Russian Attack in Ukraine, Broken Glass and Rattled Nerves in Romania - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

His thatched-roof shack on the bank of the Danube River just 200 yards from Ukraine has no running water, and getting to it involves waiting for a ferry and a bumpy ride on dirt roads.

Last week, however, the farmyard home of Gheorge Puflea, 71, became a piece of attention-grabbing real estate thanks to its unwanted status as the first property in NATO territory damaged in a Russian attack aimed at Ukraine.

The drone missile assault, carried out before dawn last Wednesday, hit a Ukrainian cargo port across the river, but it was so close that shock waves from the explosions shattered windows in Plauru, a tiny hamlet with just a dozen tumbledown homes on the Romanian side of the Danube.

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#3115116 12-Aug-2023 19:41

Russia is kind of laughably put together

OBF

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#3116022 15-Aug-2023 09:34

A very interesting interview of a couple of Russian "volunteers" on twitter. Hope the link works OK.

They say Russians are not generally welcomed. 70% of the Ukrainian population in that area don't want the Russians there. They say they fear for their lives and do not stay in the occupied areas at night, and say there is no way for Ukraine and Russia to be peacefully reunited.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1690993539780374528?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

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#3118442 21-Aug-2023 11:14

Relates only slightly to the Ukrainian war, Russia's attempted to land a spacecraft on the moon.

It had some Russian propaganda value, because if it was successful, it would show Russia could do big tech while under sanctions.

Russian spacecraft crashes into the Moon

BBC News

SJB

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#3118458 21-Aug-2023 11:38

Quote of the week from the Russian space agency.

"Preliminary findings showed that the 800kg lander had "ceased to exist as a result of a collision with the surface of the Moon", it said in a statement."

I see a long holiday in Siberia coming up for some in the space agency.

neb

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#3118584 21-Aug-2023 14:12

SJB:
I see a long holiday in Siberia coming up for some in the space agency.

They may also be given the option of dyin... fighting in Ukraine for six months in exchange for rehabilitation.

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