Ukraine War discussion

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#3119671 24-Aug-2023 10:15

SJB:

He's never appeared weaker. Maybe not this week or next year but sooner or later someone will overthrow him.

Which is the worry. Anyone with the means to overthrow Putin is going to be even more evil.

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ezbee

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#3119681 24-Aug-2023 10:32

More evil does not necessarily mean less willing to do a sensible deal.
Prigozhin was an example of being much more honest in his own way.
He stated pretty directly the Ukraine venture was started on a lie and achieved the opposite of its aims.

You don't have a stake in completing the previous guys vision for him.
You make your own that may be very different.

Timing ?

BRICS meeting happening at the same time.
Prigozhin releases his now in Africa, making Africa great again video... MAGA!

His plane gets shot down with him, Utkin and other Wagner leaders going from St Petersburg to Moscow.
Utkin is infamous for his SS tattoos, it was called Wagner, not a very Russian name.

Re asserting power, if you want to be a dictator in Africa, talk to me not the plane wreckage?

Next month its elections for Russian local administrations leading up to next years presidential elections.
Though for a long time Putin has made sure candidates, and more importantly winners are who he wants.
Time to make sure.

First rule of Mutineers Club?

freitasm

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#3119682 24-Aug-2023 10:34

SJB:

The difference at this point in time is that his flagship project, Ukraine, is a failure and an almost impossible one to turn around. It's Afghanistan all over again but on a much larger scale and closer to home.

When he tries to divert attention with headline grabbing events like the moon landing he spectacularly fails.

He can't even attend the BRICS meeting in person for fear of being arrested for war crimes.

He's never appeared weaker. Maybe not this week or next year but sooner or later someone will overthrow him.

He is not appearing weak because he kills his opponents. He appears weak because his policies are failing. Killing the opponents is just a consequence and actions of someone who doesn't know how to do anything else.

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#3119683 24-Aug-2023 10:35

There's no good solution. Angela Merkel, former Chancellor of Germany, attempt to pacify Russia show this.

Balkanization of Russia, and its nuclear stockpile, may be worse than a strongarm dictator.

This is from a website "breakingdefense.com"
Bias Rating: RIGHT-CENTER
Factual Reporting: HIGH
Country: USA

Breaking Defense: ‘Everybody has weapons’: Russia’s balkanized military sparks civil unrest concerns
...
“Different factions within the government,” he said, “will fight for the power [to rule] because evidently the competition between clans will increase … because they have a lot of weapons now. Even criminals have weapons. Chechens have weapons. Internal Ministry has weapons. The Defence Ministry has weapons. KGB — the FSB — have weapons. Everybody has weapons.”
...
Wagner is the most well-known, but hardly the only, military power outside the regular ranks.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has his own force of Chechen units taking part in the combat, while the Russian national guard seems to operate on its own. (The New York Times piece featured an anecdote where Russian military regulars and Russian national guard forces fired upon each other.)

Even within the government, Russia’s security services now use their personnel, weapons and other resources to serve their own institutional interests — which, thanks to rampant corruption, can often run counter to those of the Russian state itself.
...

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#3119963 25-Aug-2023 02:07

SJB:

Prigozhin listed as a passenger on a jet that has crashed killing all on board.

What a coincidence, one could not have expected that at all! I was wondering why it took so long. And the Russian aviation authorities have never been so quick to report it within one hour. 🤔

Two impacts to make sure the aircraft doesn't make it home with only one engine. That would be the usual way to avoid "examinations".

I bet this will be one of the extremely rare cases where, by chance, two Western engines „failed“ simultaneously due to a technical defect.

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

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#3119978 25-Aug-2023 07:50

The investigation into the crash has been thorough and efficient. So efficient in fact that it's report was published ten minutes before the crash. Fortunately a large crowd had been assembled at the crash site so there were plenty of eye witnesses.

The conclusion of the report was that it was not a missile or a bomb or mechanical failure.

It was caused either by the Earth moving and hitting the plane or an act of God. Who believes he is God in Russia was not explicitly defined in the report.

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#3119980 25-Aug-2023 07:56

SJB:

Who believes he is God in Russia was not explicitly defined in the report.

The report also did not mention the colour of the grass or sky, for similar reasons.

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Tinkerisk

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#3120349 26-Aug-2023 07:40

SJB:

The investigation into the crash has been thorough and efficient. So efficient in fact that it's report was published ten minutes before the crash. Fortunately a large crowd had been assembled at the crash site so there were plenty of eye witnesses.

The conclusion of the report was that it was not a missile or a bomb or mechanical failure.

It was caused either by the Earth moving and hitting the plane or an act of God. Who believes he is God in Russia was not explicitly defined in the report.

Well, sure, and the two pilots had shared a bag of peanuts from the USA and also died within a very short time of COVID-19 in the cockpit. And the worst part of a rapid descend is only the last two to three tiny metres. 😄

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

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#3120357 26-Aug-2023 08:19

SJB:
The investigation into the crash has been thorough and efficient. So efficient in fact that it's report was published ten minutes before the crash. Fortunately a large crowd had been assembled at the crash site so there were plenty of eye witnesses.

The conclusion of the report was that it was not a missile or a bomb or mechanical failure.

It was caused either by the Earth moving and hitting the plane or an act of God. Who believes he is God in Russia was not explicitly defined in the report.

Well he could have fallen out of window, and by chance, fell onto bullets scattered on the pavement.

kingdragonfly

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#3120359 26-Aug-2023 08:23

"Molecular-genetic tests are now being carried out," Russian investigators say.

I bet they did!

BBC News: Bodies and flight recorders recovered at Wagner boss Prigozhin's jet crash site

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#3120512 26-Aug-2023 11:20

kingdragonfly: "Molecular-genetic tests are now being carried out," Russian investigators say.

'The capo di tutti capi told us to be absolutely sure we got him', they continued.

SJB

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#3120514 26-Aug-2023 11:26

There are of course many suicides amongst Putin's adversaries so maybe he crashed the plane deliberately.

However the normal method of suicide these poor unfortunates apparently use is shooting in the head. Twice.

ezbee

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#3120516 26-Aug-2023 11:31

Wagner Graveyards (Monuments to Wagner, Prigozhin and Utkin) are being dismantled.

This is taking resources and money, at a time when both may be lacking so serious effort to erase Wagner and Prigozhin from history?

Wagner graveyard in the settlement of Nikolavevka, Samara region. 53.086779, 50.320352

Edit: Missed video link... https://mastodon.social/@Ukrainenews
files.mastodon.social/media_attachments/files/110/950/274/882/440/729/original/fb381dc66b84eccc.mp4

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#3120519 26-Aug-2023 11:54

ezbee:

Wager Graveyards (Monuments to Wagner, Prigozhin and Utkin) are being dismantled.

I tend to take these things with a grain of salt (they are basically criminals after all). But here is that position from April this year. You can see what could be the path in the background of the left had photo with rows and rows of what could be graves, now missing from the photo.

So yeah, that might actually be true.

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neb

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#3120571 26-Aug-2023 12:29

SaltyNZ:
I tend to take these things with a grain of salt (they are basically criminals after all). But here is that position from April this year. You can see what could be the path in the background of the left had photo with rows and rows of what could be graves, now missing from the photo.

Interesting to also look to the left of that area to see the nearby town. Apart from the metal roofs and the sole stretch of blacktop at the bottom, that place probably looked more or less the same in 1700.

I've been in places like that, bits of eastern Europe shortly after the collapse of communism, where nothing had been done since the 1920s, and the state of things in the 1920s was pretty similar to the state of things in the 1720s, a well in the garden, outdoor toilet, a large area devoted to growing vegetables, maybe a few goats or pigs, dirt tracks between houses, it was like stepping into a weird time warp.

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