Our new coalition government.

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#2484030 14-May-2020 19:56

Rikkitic:

What I did see was just a repetitive rant about throwing money around and not having a plan, which amusingly enough, was almost identical to what I saw Simon Bridges saying in Parliament. I guess that means it must be true!

Stopped clocks and all - it's possible for an economist to hold that as a considered position and for an idiot to be a contrarian - that doesn't mean that we should dismiss both viewpoints as idiotic.

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#2484049 14-May-2020 20:37

I'm not dismissing them as idiotic, just suggesting that they don't have much substance and belong in the political commentary box, not the economic analysis one. That is to be expected from a politician, less so from a supposedly serious economist. Even so, everyone is entitled to an opinion. I just felt TV 1 was giving far too much credence to this one.

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#2484243 15-May-2020 10:00

How can you analyse something meaningfully, without detail on how it will be executed? I think you are too quick to dismiss anything negative being said about the PM, and the Government.

I'll wait to be accused of the usual, but to put that the budget into perspective, the Government is intending to borrow *$70,000* for every household in NZ, and earliest projections to come out of deficit is mid 2030's and probably more like 2040's.

They have said they will build 8000 new homes with Housing NZ, but with their record on house building... Take into account then there is very little detail in what is being planned (and I accept there is some excuse for less than usual planning), I think it's reasonable

that people be concerned and ask, *how* that money is intending to be spent. It is easy (for all Governments not just this one) to have large sums of money spent and very little to show for it. This is a HUGE sum of money, expecting to get value for the huge amount of debt we incur, is *very* reasonable.

This isn't money they are pulling off a money tree, it has to be repaid, with interest.

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#2484266 15-May-2020 10:37

No argument with any of that but the economist I was referring to in particular, who is supposed to have specialist knowledge, offered nothing at all of substance, just a very politicized rant about throwing money around and not having a plan. On that basis he had no business being offered up by TV1 as an 'expert'.

As an aside, on 1 April he was praising the same policy on Newstalkzb that he now seems to find so misguided. Quote: "The Crown's got a big balance sheet; borrow, load it up, get as much money as you can in the near term into people's pockets, into businesses. Try to support or minimise the amount of destruction we are currently seeing in lockdown mode."

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#2484479 15-May-2020 14:56

Both statements can be true. There is 20 billion of budgeted but unallocated spending.

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#2485882 18-May-2020 20:47

Wow. The latest Newshub Reid-Research poll puts Labour so far out in front that you can't even see their dust. It would govern alone with a comfortable 11-seat majority and Act and NZ First would be history. 16 National MPs would be out of a job.

Yes, a few months can be a long time in politics, but not that long and National seems to be vanishing into the distance. Simon Bridges certainly is. It will be very interesting to see what the next Colmar Brunton poll says.

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#2486019 19-May-2020 01:01

Rikkitic:

Wow. The latest Newshub Reid-Research poll puts Labour so far out in front that you can't even see their dust. It would govern alone with a comfortable 11-seat majority and Act and NZ First would be history. 16 National MPs would be out of a job.

Yes, a few months can be a long time in politics, but not that long and National seems to be vanishing into the distance. Simon Bridges certainly is. It will be very interesting to see what the next Colmar Brunton poll says.

Don't forget that there was somewhat similar polling after the Christchurch massacre. 4 months later they were back to neck and neck.

It could swing even faster this time with the rapidly growing economic problems.

It could be very volatile going into the election. The coalition still has the same problems it had several months ago - a perception of being a one woman government and a perception of corruption from NZ First. National still has no attractive prime minister or perception of a vision to make improve the country.

It's going to be an interesting campaign.

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#2486035 19-May-2020 07:28

I honestly thought I was going to wake up to news that Bridges had stepped down. I'm extremely surprised that hasn't happened.

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#2486054 19-May-2020 08:25

Who would replace him? No leader is wanting to take the loss on their record. Bridges has always felt like the fall guy for this term. Next term is when we will start to see serious jostling to be the leader.

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#2486063 19-May-2020 08:38

Varkk:

Who would replace him? No leader is wanting to take the loss on their record. Bridges has always felt like the fall guy for this term. Next term is when we will start to see serious jostling to be the leader.

Depends. The sixteen or so routed MPs who would lose seats will be getting restless. Then there's the marginal electorates.

National has two choices - embrace Key-era liberalism which it seems to have abandoned or continue down the 2005-Brash-era authoritarian route and get rekt come election time.

We all know which road they're going to go down. It's more when than if at this point.

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#2487415 20-May-2020 21:51

networkn:

How can you analyse something meaningfully, without detail on how it will be executed? I think you are too quick to dismiss anything negative being said about the PM, and the Government.

I'll wait to be accused of the usual, but to put that the budget into perspective, the Government is intending to borrow *$70,000* for every household in NZ, and earliest projections to come out of deficit is mid 2030's and probably more like 2040's.

They have said they will build 8000 new homes with Housing NZ, but with their record on house building... Take into account then there is very little detail in what is being planned (and I accept there is some excuse for less than usual planning), I think it's reasonable

that people be concerned and ask, *how* that money is intending to be spent. It is easy (for all Governments not just this one) to have large sums of money spent and very little to show for it. This is a HUGE sum of money, expecting to get value for the huge amount of debt we incur, is *very* reasonable.

This isn't money they are pulling off a money tree, it has to be repaid, with interest.

Yes and National kept saying there was no housing crisis.

And I have yet to see national give any actual policy that has been costed, nor have they given any concrete ideas about what they would have done.

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#2487416 20-May-2020 21:53

Varkk:

Who would replace him? No leader is wanting to take the loss on their record. Bridges has always felt like the fall guy for this term. Next term is when we will start to see serious jostling to be the leader.

Perhaps Simon has become such a huge liability that "forgiveness" has been granted in advance to put Simon out of his misery now instead of after the election.

sir1963

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#2487417 20-May-2020 21:57

Rikkitic:

Wow. The latest Newshub Reid-Research poll puts Labour so far out in front that you can't even see their dust. It would govern alone with a comfortable 11-seat majority and Act and NZ First would be history. 16 National MPs would be out of a job.

Yes, a few months can be a long time in politics, but not that long and National seems to be vanishing into the distance. Simon Bridges certainly is. It will be very interesting to see what the next Colmar Brunton poll says.

It will be interesting to see if National will sacrifice a seat to get ACT into parliament , they may need seat more than they need friends who have no purpose.

GV27

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#2487480 21-May-2020 06:40

sir1963:

It will be interesting to see if National will sacrifice a seat to get ACT into parliament , they may need seat more than they need friends who have no purpose.

The paradox of ACT has always been they need disaffected National voters to build a stronger party vote, but simply trading votes between National and ACT doesn't work when Labour has a higher overall party vote, which hasn't been the case for some time.

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#2487517 21-May-2020 08:58

Didn’t realise National and Act were part of “Our New Coalition Government”.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

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